180 pharmaceutical companies disclosed 2019 performance forecast: 72 companies suffered losses in advance. Will the living environment be more difficult in 2020?

Compared with the previous year, 2019 seems to be more difficult, and the proportion of pre earnings enterprises has declined, especially with the promotion of centralized procurement, the impact on pharmaceutical enterprises has begun to appear At the beginning of 2020, an epidemic has disrupted the pace, some enterprises that were originally difficult have been given a chance to breathe, while some vigorous enterprises may be hindered by the epidemic These changes have taken place, and it is worth noting whether they can be sustained? What is the impact? The epidemic spread throughout the Spring Festival holiday "At present, the inflection point of the epidemic is unpredictable, but the peak should appear in the middle and late February." Zhong Nanshan said in an interview on February 11 This is at least a reassuring news, which also reminds us to some extent that it's time to change our mood and return to work E drug managers made statistics of the information disclosed by A-share medical and health sector at 10:00 a.m as of February 12 on the 2019 annual performance forecast, which is for industry reference According to the wind database, as of the publication date, 180 enterprises in the medical and health sector have disclosed the 2019 annual performance forecast About 108 of them can realize the increase in advance and 72 can make a loss in advance The growth rate of 35 enterprises will exceed 100%, that of 28 enterprises will be in the range of 50% - 100%, and that of 64 enterprises will be in the range of 0% - 50%; according to the disclosed information, there will be 23 enterprises with a decline rate of more than 100%, and that of 23 enterprises with a maximum decline rate of 50% - 100% Among them, the largest increase is Xinhua medical, up to 38 times, a remarkable increase However, there is also a sharp drop, the biggest one is innovative medical treatment, with a maximum drop of - 3806.55% In terms of the absolute value of the net profit to be realized, at least eight enterprises can realize a net profit of more than 1 billion yuan a year, but most of them have a profit of less than 1 billion yuan, or even less than 100 million yuan According to rough statistics, 82 Enterprises in the list still haven't earned 100 million yuan in 2019, and 27 of them are in a loss state In this list, Mindray medical became the most profitable enterprise in 2019, achieving a net profit of 4.463 billion yuan to 4.835 billion yuan Among the top three companies, Zhifei Biology (2.25-2.54 billion) and China Resources Sanjiu (2.11-2.25 billion) are the only three companies that earn more than 2 billion yuan In addition to joy, some enterprises are more sad For example, in 2019, Yuheng pharmaceutical industry is expected to lose 2.4-2.6 billion yuan, which is about the market value of a saps, or the market value of a Kyrgyz holding It is accompanied by Hengkang medical (- 1.8 billion-2.4 billion yuan), Tonghua Jinma (- 1.95 billion-2.35 billion yuan), Asia Pacific Pharmaceutical (- 1.5 billion-2.1 billion yuan), and these four enterprises may also lose more than 2 billion yuan in 2019 It is worth noting that st Kangmei, a big counterfeiter, is expected to lose 1.35 billion to 1.65 billion yuan in 2019, failing to enter the 2 billion loss line From the perspective of segmented industries, in 2019, chemical APIs are generally profitable, which belong to the upstream of the pharmaceutical industry chain and are generally not well known by the public The median growth rate of the industry's net profit in 2019 is 31% - 46% The second is biological products and medical devices The two fine molecular industries are equally divided, with a median value of 20% - 30% The most difficult is traditional Chinese medicine and chemical agents The insiders should also be able to expect that these two industries are greatly affected by policies The median growth rate of net profit in 2019 is 5% - 20% However, in this outbreak, due to the lack of specific medicine treatment, it is suggested in the fifth edition of the diagnosis and treatment plan that there are several traditional Chinese medicines or proprietary Chinese medicines, such as Lianhua Qingwen Shuanghuanglian oral liquid was once out of stock Most of the research reports and analysis said that it would affect the performance of these enterprises in the first quarter In addition to the performance, it also gave birth to a wave of secondary market quotations of traditional Chinese medicine enterprises, such as HongRi pharmaceutical, which produces Xuebijing injection The following will be analyzed from various fine molecule industries and typical companies: 01 chemical API balanced development cdmo efforts from the statistical results, chemical API is the most balanced sub industry, there is no great gap between the rich and the poor, and the data is peaceful Among the 18 enterprises, only four suffered losses in advance, with a maximum loss margin of about 50%, and the maximum profit margin only more than doubled Sitari is the largest growth enterprise of chemical APIs in 2019 It is estimated that in 2019, the company will achieve a net profit of 170 million yuan to 210 million yuan, an increase of 81.48% to 124.18% The profit growth is mainly due to the continuous growth of the sales of the main products of iodinated contrast agent series APIs, among which the growth of the iodized kesacol and the iodized PaSol APIs is relatively large In addition, its holding subsidiary, Haishen pharmaceutical, was included in the scope of consolidated statements from January to December 2019 And hiprec is the only raw material pharmaceutical company with an annual profit of more than 1 billion yuan The company expects to achieve a net profit of RMB 950 million to RMB 1.13 billion in 2019, an increase of 54.17% to 83.38% The increase is mainly due to the increase of cdmo business income and the increase of gross profit rate, as well as a one-time investment income recognized by the company According to hpre, the impact of non recurring profit and loss on net profit in 2019 is expected to be RMB 500-680 million, mainly including investment income, profit and loss from changes in fair value and government subsidies It is worth noting that in addition to the former kelleying, the chemical API sector has added Jiuzhou pharmaceutical industry In September 2019, the company purchased Suzhou Novartis for 790 million yuan, aiming to expand cdmo business It is reported that Novartis Suzhou has many high-efficiency production lines, continuous reaction and enzyme catalytic reaction process equipment, and innovative drug treatment fields corresponding to related API and intermediate products include anti heart failure, breast cancer and leukemia In 2019, the enterprise performance forecast of chemical API 02 biological products: Zhifei biological's most profitable Watson biological products perform surprisingly in terms of blood products, vaccines and other biological products The most stable performance is blood products, such as Shanghai Laishi, Tiantan biology, Hualan biology, etc., which have been relatively stable And vaccines are the most popular From the stock price performance of three "private vaccine giants" of Zhifei biology, Kangtai biology and Watson biology, it can be seen at a glance In the list, in 2019, the most profitable biological products enterprise is Zhifei biology The company expects to achieve a net profit of 2.25 billion yuan to 2.54 billion yuan in 2019, an increase of 55% to 75% The growth mainly benefited from the growth of agent vaccines According to the latest data, the company's agent vaccines accounted for 88.5% of its revenue, of which the growth of nine price HPV and five price rotavirus vaccines contributed a lot In the third quarter of 2019, the number of vaccine batches issued increased by 515% and 3462% respectively But Watson's digital performance was surprising The results express released on February 7 showed that during the reporting period, the company's total operating revenue was 1.121 billion yuan, an increase of 27.55% over the same period of last year; the net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 145 million yuan, a decrease of 900 million yuan, or 86.14% over the same period of last year Inconsistent with the performance data, Watson bio's growth in the secondary market in 2019 was 70.11%, exceeding the industry's average growth of 25.44% However, Watson Bio said the decline was not caused by the main business, but because the company transferred its subsidiary's equity in the previous year, resulting in an investment income of 1.176 billion yuan This year, it's gone, so it's down It's normal to earn more than one billion a year In 2019, the company performance forecast of biological products sector 03 polarization of medical devices is different from that of chemical APIs and biological products, and also different from that of chemical preparations and traditional Chinese medicine, which are greatly influenced by policies Medical devices are generally in the rising period, but the gap between the rich and the poor is also large Of the 45 enterprises counted, 11 may suffer losses in advance, with the largest increase of 38 times and the largest decrease of about 950% Among them, Xinhua medical predicted a net profit of 898 million yuan to 909 million yuan in 2019, an increase of 38.4 to 38.9 times The main reasons for the change are two parts One is that the company less accrued 1.12-1.22 billion yuan of goodwill compared with the same period last year The other is that the company sold two shares, increasing investment income of 874 million yuan The opposite of the increase is the decrease of Guanhao The company expects to lose 385 million to 390 million yuan in 2019, down by - 952.52% to - 941.59% The main reason is that the acquisition of its wholly-owned subsidiary, Zhuhai Xiangle, is affected by the comprehensive factors such as the combined purchasing policy of medical consumables with volume and personnel changes, and its performance is not up to expectations After the impairment test, it is proposed to withdraw about 220 million yuan of goodwill impairment provision The most profitable enterprise in medical devices is Mindray medical, which is also the most profitable enterprise in the list Mindray medical expects to achieve a net profit of 4.463 billion yuan to 4.835 billion yuan in 2019, with an increase of 20% to 30% The main reason is that the market share of core products has steadily increased, and high-end products and emerging businesses have continued to make rapid growth In 2019, the performance forecast of medical device sector enterprises 04 Compared with other micro industry, medical service may be the most sad sub industry According to a group of data, the enterprises with the largest growth rate are expected to achieve 15 million profits in 2019, or about double the growth rate, while the enterprises with the largest decline rate will lose 1.1 billion yuan in advance in 2019, with a decline rate of - 3806.55%, and the number of enterprises with severe decline rate is far more than the increase Specifically, two companies are expected to lose more than 1 billion yuan Among them, Hengkang medical is expected to lose 1.8-2.4 billion yuan in 2019, a year-on-year decrease of 26.96% - 69.27%; Yihua health is expected to lose 1.25-1.62 billion yuan in 2019, a decrease of 804.54% - 1013.09% There are three main reasons for the change of health data of Yihua: first, the impairment of goodwill formed by investment enterprises may reach 1 billion-1.6 billion yuan; second, the impairment of long-term assets of the invested enterprises is 200-300 million yuan due to the impact of economic environment and business conditions; third, the provision for credit loss of receivables is 130 million yuan In addition, the company's Hospital Investment and operation are affected by the adjustment of medical insurance policy, payment and settlement, and many businesses have changed significantly Innovative medical care is the largest enterprise with a loss of 900-1.1 billion yuan in 2019, a decrease of 3132.63% - 3806.55% The operation of wholly-owned subsidiaries Jianhua hospital and Futian hospital is far less than expected Since the third quarter, Kanghua hospital, a wholly-owned subsidiary, has put into use the inpatient building of Kanghua hospital phase II project due to the increase of reserve personnel and the investment of raised funds The operating cost has increased significantly In addition, considering the actual situation that the utilization rate of hospital beds has not been saturated after the expansion of Kanghua hospital, the company expects that this year The impairment loss of goodwill will be about 900 million yuan In addition, the case of financial leasing dispute between Jianhua hospital and Baoxin international has not yet been decided by Shaanxi Higher People's court, and the company has accrued large amount of estimated liabilities for the above matters In 2019, the company performance forecast of medical service sector 05: profit and loss of traditional Chinese medicine is equal, Seji pharmaceutical Holding Co., Ltd and St Kangmei's forecast loss is more than 1 billion It is well known in the industry that traditional Chinese medicine will not be better in 2019 Among the 29 companies that have issued performance forecasts, 12 companies are expected to make losses, ranging from - 36.81% to - 794.64%; 17 companies are expected to increase, ranging from 0% to 699.75% The largest growing pharmaceutical company is Tianmu pharmaceutical The company expects to achieve a net profit of 38.268 million yuan to 53.268 million yuan in 2019, an increase of 5.31 to 7 times This period's performance is mainly affected by non recurring profit and loss, specifically receiving 200 million yuan of compensation from the government of Lin'an District, Hangzhou city The pharmaceutical company with the largest decline is Kyrgyz holding, which is expected to lose 1.5 billion yuan in 2019, a decrease of - 794.64% to - 792.33%, which is also the largest loss making enterprise in the traditional Chinese medicine sub industry Summary of main reasons