2014 strategy of pharmaceutical industry: from drug reform to medical reform

2013-12-27 source: Guoxin Securities Research Institute: Guoxin Securities analyst: he Pingge, Ding Dan, Hu Boxin, Liu Qin, Du zuoyuan date of writing: 2013-12-16 2014: the first year of the transition from "drug reform" to "medical reform" and the policy year since the new medical reform was launched in 2009, "medical reform" has actually become "drug reform", The most critical public hospital reform is superficial The initial optimism brought by the full coverage of medical insurance and the catalogue of basic drugs has also fallen into the current confused period: severe bidding, repeated price cuts, anti commercial bribery, and sharp outbreak of contradictions between doctors and patients again The entity operation of the pharmaceutical industry is plagued by the uncertainty of the policy environment It is expected that the growth rate and efficiency of the industry will continue to fluctuate due to the policy disturbance in 2014, which is weaker than the boom The Third Plenary Session of the CPC Central Committee decided to make the dawn of "drug reform" to "medical reform" clear, which means that 2014 will be another "policy year", and the pace of investment in the secondary market will inevitably be led by policy expectations Reform steps and trends: like fog, like rain, like wind! Other mountains and stones can be learned -- attractive prospect reform steps and policy trends -- like fog: the direction of new health care reform is clear, but the near sight is fuzzy, the path of public hospital reform is still unclear; like rain: the cost of reform trial and error will still be borne by enterprises, We must have the psychological preparation to meet the storm -- indestructible! Like wind: Based on the industry's people's livelihood attribute, the rigid growth and policy positive energy are still in place, and the policy warm wind is constantly forming Comparing the experience and course of medical reform in Hong Kong, Taiwan and Singapore, we are still confident in the prospect of Chinese medical reform After a period of confusion, the investment field is more open, and the leading companies in various subdivisions are always strong in policy changes, and share the final reform results There are good investment opportunities in the pharmaceutical sector and the medical service sector In 2014, the pace of investment: fog stage: the market is pessimistic and anxious, the valuation center of the sector moves down together, lacking industrial opportunities; rain stage: the policy boots are put in place, and the high-quality companies take the lead to get out of the depression syndrome; wind stage: the sun is shining, When the wind is big, all the pigs will fly -- the trend investment enthusiasm is high; when the stage valuation is high -- adjustment! Pharmaceutical sector: the strong will always be strong! Focus on the endogenous and external development opportunities of the leading enterprises in the subdivision field of "R & D innovation or brand consumption" After five months of adjustment, investment opportunities were significant in the first half of 2014 Medical sector: model innovation! The gradual opening and vigorous development of medical and health service industry, as well as the penetration of the Internet, are expected to emerge new business models There are great opportunities in both the primary and high-end medical consumer markets, but it is necessary to select "real growth" companies from the trend investment enthusiasm Looking forward to 2014: the policy fog of the pharmaceutical sector has gradually dissipated, the policy vision of the medical sector has been gradually implemented, and the investment opportunities of the pharmaceutical sector and the medical sector are expected to continue