2021 Outlook | After a year of wild growth for new consumer brands such as Hey Tea and Genki Forest, who is the real winner?

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The relevant partner of Jingwei China told the author that after the epidemic, global interest rates are very low, and traditional valuation methods will fail to a certain extent; low interest rates also force investors to chase scarce high-quality targets, which makes the originally crowded transactions more crowded , All eligible assets will increase their prices crazily.

The aforementioned investors believe that the general background of low interest rates has not yet been seen to change in the short term, although the rate of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve has slowed down compared with last year.

For some companies in the secondary market, there may be some short-term fluctuations in the valuation, and the valuation judgment of the primary market still has to return to the main line of "growth".

According to Chen Yalei, head of consumer research at Huaxing Securities (Hong Kong), for those leading companies in the entrepreneurial track, the continuation of high valuations may be certain.

"A good consumer goods company has a relatively high valuation in any sector.
" Moreover, the difference in valuation between different sectors of the consumer goods industry is far from the leading and non-leading companies in the same consumer goods sector.
The difference in valuation is so big.

Therefore, only by seeing the current status and future of these leading companies can we better understand the constant but new species of consumer brands.

Is it still worth lining up for the Heytea IPO?

Is it still worth lining up for the Heytea IPO?

Compared with the number of new stores opened by Hi Tea in 2020, many people are more interested in when it will be launched.

Hey Tea’s refuting rumors obviously cannot extinguish the enthusiasm for hot money investment, and people are still staring at who will get the “first share of new tea”.

However, Nayuki has already taken a step ahead of them.

On New Year's Eve of 2020, he submitted the application form for listing in Hong Kong, and the first new tea drink may be born.

The story of hi tea begins with queuing.

This phenomenon is common in new Internet celebrity brands, some of which belong to marketing routines, where they spend money to hire extras to create momentum.
Hey Tea was once similarly questioned.
With the expansion of stores, the queuing problem has improved significantly.
The author has learned that in 2020, the time for placing orders on the Mini Program for HiTea users has been reduced by 30% on average compared to when the Mini Program was launched in 2018.

Hi tea

Image source: Weibo @

The capital market has also been keen to queue up in the past year, but instead of buying a cup of tea, it is buying stocks.

According to official data from the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, the total amount of funds raised in the securities market of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange in 2020 has increased by 64% compared with 2019.
Among them, the number of companies with oversubscription of more than 100 times from January to November increased by 71% year-on-year.

Judging from the current external environment, the Hong Kong Stock Exchange will continue to be the first choice for the listing of new tea brands.

Will Hi Tea be launched this year? Don't be too optimistic.
Some investment bankers even told the author that Hi Tea may not be listed in 2021, and large-scale production is the preferred option.

Hi Tea used to include three main store types: theme store, main store, and GO store.

The theme stores focus on the store experience, and the elements are diverse, but due to the high investment in the single store, the number of stores is the least; the number of main stores is the most; the GO store focuses on take-out, which is the contributor to the expansion and acceleration.
In general, the ability to scale is the core barrier for HiTea to remove the Internet celebrity label and maintain its position in the head.

There is always no shortage of Internet celebrity brands for new-style tea drinks.
The gourmet KOLs and folk foodies on Douyin/Kaishou/Xiaohongshu/Dianping already have the strength of mass-produced Internet celebrity brands.
However, it is rare to see a national-scale direct chain brand like Hey Tea.
The other is Nayuki, which is also a strong competitor of "the first stock of new tea drinks.
"

Cha Yanyue Se was popularly searched last year due to the news of "queuing for more than 8 hours to check in" during the opening of the first store in Wuhan, but this does not mean anything.
This new brand is still limited to the surrounding areas of Changsha.
How to go to the whole country is the biggest challenge that Chayanyuese faces.
Similar brands include Lele Tea, which is centered on the Shanghai area.

Baidu index trend of some new tea brands in the past year

Image source: Baidu

There are many new brands of new tea drinks, including Lanxiong Fresh Milk, Xiaoman Chatian, and Douhao, but it is difficult to overtake.
Heycha and Naixue have already occupied the core entrances of high-quality shopping malls in first-tier and new-tier cities.
This is a big push for the tea industry.
Prior to this, it was impossible for tea brands to enter the ground floor of the mall.
One of the main reasons was that the mall investment team was worried that it would lower the level of the mall, and the mid-waist tea brands could only choose between the high-level and LG-level.

Another factor that affects the speed of expansion is the talent training system.
Existing tea drinks are processed in stores, and Hey Tea needs to expand and recruit more talents at the same time.
The author has learned from industry insiders that HiTea has opened a partner mechanism in some areas to support faster store expansion, but there are still internal differences on this model.

2020 is an unexpected year, and changes will begin to occur in February.
The temporary closure of shopping malls and the tightening of controls once had a negative impact on the flow of Heycha customers.
However, the food delivery business is growing simultaneously.
For example, from February to April, the proportion of Heycha takeaway orders reached 30.
2%, a considerable increase of more than 250% over the same period last year.
Looking back, the habit of ordering tea through takeaway continued throughout the year.
The author understands that in 2020, of all the orders placed online at Heycha, more than 30.
6% of takeaway orders.

This is an excellent time for user education.
In contrast, the temporary loss of store traffic seems acceptable.
In July 2020, even Starbucks China, which has always been conservative, has also iterated their "coffee fast" service.
However, for Hi Tea, takeaway is still only an extension of store services and is subject to the speed of store development.

The scale of Hey Tea's stores in 2020 has increased significantly.
As of the end of the year, the number of stores nationwide reached 692, an increase of 77% from the 390 in 2019.
Earlier in 2018 and 2019, the number of Xicha stores more than doubled.
The author believes that in the next 2021, the negative impact of the epidemic is expected to be further reduced, and Xichamen may double the growth again.
That is, by the end of 2021, the number of Xicha stores nationwide is expected to reach 1,400.

For GO stores that are most helpful for running scale, the proportion of newly opened stores is expected to increase further.

Retailing is a new story that Hi Tea can tell.
The landmark event was the opening of the Tmall flagship store in March.
As of January 27, the number of fans has reached 630,000.
It is not a temporary move.
The sub-sector of Hey Tea Department Store has been launched for many years, but it is limited to the WeChat mini program to sell brand peripheral products.
The opening of the Tmall flagship store is a retail milestone, which allows them to more flexibly innovate non-off-the-shelf tea products without worrying about affecting store efficiency.

Judging from the current sales volume, the best selling is teabags, which extend from fresh fruit tea to pure tea.
What is more noteworthy is the newly launched sub-brand "Xixiaobo", which changes the products of Hitea to sparkling water.
extend.
However, with the vitality forest ahead, Xixiaoping's next offline FMCG channel development will be a big obstacle.

There are new possibilities for the large-scale expansion of Hey Tea.
The sub-brand "Xy Xiaocha" was incubated, and it entered the test in 6 cities last year.
Compared with the iconic fruit tea and cheese tea, Xixiaocha has more ingredients and a lower price range.
It is obviously different from the main brand in terms of product and audience positioning.
Therefore, it is considered by the industry to prepare for the sinking market.
, But Xicha denied this statement.

But in any case, whether the sinking ability is still at the core of people's doubts about the future growth of Hey Tea.
Third-tier cities may like the next focus of tea.
In contrast, there are higher uncertainties when going to sea, and the continued impact of the epidemic on a global scale.
Heytea’s plan to go to sea in the past year has encountered obvious resistance.
It is still difficult to predict how much improvement will be made in the new year.
There is also not such a strong demand.
It is just a Chinese market, enough to grow an absolute new tea drinking leader similar to Starbucks.

Prior to this, Hey Tea needed to have more radiation in second-tier and lower cities, but now it seems to be very basic, and the local market has already ambushed many tea brands, including Michelle Ice City (over 10,000 stores) , Gu Ming (4300 stores), and the old tea chain brand coco are all available, a little bit.
Among them, Gu Ming opened 1,300 new stores in the past 2020.
The speed of expansion cannot be underestimated.
It may also be the most direct opponent of Xicha's sinking.

How does the vitality forest continue to vitality?

How does the vitality forest continue to vitality?

Under the new brand tide, the vitality forest is undoubtedly the most beautiful one.

In the just-concluded Double 11 in 2020, the domestic brand Yuanqi Forest surpassed the long-standing international brands for the first time, and also won the No.
1 sales of Tmall and JD water beverages.
According to the author's understanding, the sales of Yuanqi Forest in 2020 will be between 2.
3 billion and 2.
5 billion yuan, of which the sales of sparkling water accounted for more than 70%.
The annual sales are very close.

Since the beginning of the financing road in 2018, in just two years, Yuanqi Forest has completed 4 rounds of financing with a valuation of more than 2 billion US dollars.
The beverage industry, which has been silent for many years, has subsequently become hot, and many players have followed suit.
Together, they have propped up a new subdivision of "0-addition" beverages.

2021 will be a very crucial year for the vitality forest.
If it can maintain rapid growth and further increase its market share, it will consolidate its position in the hearts of capital and help it prepare enough food and grass before going public.
At the dealer conference held in December 2020, Yuanqi Forest founder Tang Binsen proposed an offline sales target of 7.
5 billion yuan.

To achieve this slightly radical goal, it will mainly rely on the following aspects.

Sparkling water used to be the same, but the growth of single category is very limited, and it is difficult to achieve the current sales target of Yuanqi Forest.
Therefore, the top priority for Yuanqi Forest is to spread the net and continuously expand the sub-categories.
According to the author's understanding, in 2021, the major offline channels of Yuanqi Forest received from the group the main task is to promote milk tea, which is the second largest in sales.
In addition, Yuanqi Forest is also planning to enter the dairy industry and other industries.
Tang Binsen himself also revealed at the dealer conference that there are still more than 100 new products that have been successfully developed but have not yet been launched.

In addition to product innovation, Yuanqi Forest will also expand its scale by building sub-brands and investing.
This is that although dairy products and alcoholic beverages belong to the category of beverages, most of the gameplay and strategies are not the same.
Independent sub-brands and acquisitions are more efficient ways of enclosure.
Since last year, Tang Binsen’s Challenger Capital has been making relevant arrangements, investing in dozens of companies in the beverage and food industry, and recently investing in liquor brands for the first time.

Geographical layout is equally important.
In 2021, sinking and expanding overseas markets will also become an important strategy for Yuanqi Forest.
At the end of last year, Yuanqi Forest had initially completed its sinking steps, not only covering all the large, medium and small cities in the country, but also in counties with a population of about 100,000.
The author understands that Yuanqi Forest’s overseas market has been in operation for more than 2 years, and at the end of 2020, it introduced former Toutiao Senior Vice President Liu Zhen as the commander to lead the team and set up a separate overseas business unit, led by Liu Zhen, to attack overseas .

It can be seen that for the entire category of drinks, the vitality forest is determined to win.
But now there are many hidden worries.
The first issue is how to replicate the next "sparkling water miracle".
Milk tea looks the most promising at the moment, but judging from its current sales ratio, it is far from becoming the next sparkling water.

The sinking and overseas markets are obviously incremental markets.
However, on the one hand, from the perspective of vitality pricing, except for bubble water, the prices of other products are generally high.
How to promote products in markets where consumption levels are completely different from those in first- and second-tier cities It is not an easy task.
On the other hand, there are many problems to be solved in overseas markets, both in terms of plant construction and product planning.

Perfect Diary "Imperfect"

Perfect Diary "Imperfect"

If you are looking for a brand that best represents the craze of the consumer market in 2020, Perfect Diary has no rivals.
They broke many records in the past year.
The total sales of the parent company "Yixian E-Commerce" increased from 758 million yuan in 2018 to 3.
5 billion yuan in 2019, and became the first domestic beauty brand to go public in the United States in 2020.
One share.

2020 is the first year of the multi-brand of Yixian e-commerce.
In addition to Perfect Diary, it also acquired Xiao Aoting and Galénic, and incubated the ball favorite.
Before 2020, 99% of Yixian e-commerce's revenue will come from Perfect Diary.
By the first three quarters of last year, this proportion had fallen to 79.
8%.

There is no lack of irrational factors in the current capital market.
We originally needed to avoid discussing the company's stock price, but Perfect Diary has to mention it because they set a precedent for consumer goods retail brands to go public at a loss.

According to the prospectus of Yixian E-commerce, a loss of 1.
157 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2020.
In contrast, in 2019, it achieved a net profit of 75 million yuan.
Ninety percent of the perfect diary comes from online channels.
In the fourth quarter, due to the double eleven brand discount season, profits will be further diluted.
In other words, huge losses in 2020 are inevitable.

The capital market cannot use P/E to value it.
Instead, it can only be valued with forward P/E or P/S-this may be a special case of the capital market in 2020.
In the past, self-certified profitability Basically, it is a rigid indicator for consumer goods retail companies.

The changes in the consumer market in the past year have facilitated the successful IPO of Yixian E-commerce.

According to Liao Ming, the founder of Prospect Avenue Capital (PAC), during the epidemic last year, monetary easing policies in various countries have brought huge amounts of funds to the secondary market.
The valuation system and indicators have changed, and the capital market has begun to use P/S to set prices.
China’s unprofitable consumer goods retail companies are conducive to the listing of unprofitable consumer goods/retail companies.

But for investors, this is a relatively big test.
A consumer investor in a US dollar fund told the author that the valuation of some consumer brands had risen to "sky prices" last year, and investors need to decide whether to stick to their own valuation system.

The current market value of Perfect Diary is not low.
From the perspective of the market-to-sales ratio (TTM) dimension, according to Wind data, compared with the Shanghai and Shenzhen stocks and the U.
S.
stock wind personal products three-tier market capitalization of TOP10 companies, Yixian e-commerce ranks the U.
S.
stock market with the highest market-to-sales ratio P/S (TTM) The value is 25.
21 times, which is much higher than the other 9 brands.
Among the TOP8 companies with the third-tier market value of Shanghai and Shenzhen wind personal products, the highest P/S (TTM) value is only 11.
74 times.

Yixian e-commerce valuation analysis and comparison, comparing Shanghai and Shenzhen, U.
S.
stock wind personal products three-tier market capitalization TOP companies,

Image source: wind

It can be seen that the high valuation of Perfect Diary continues from the primary market to the secondary market.

A serial cosmetics entrepreneur told the author that the incubation and transformation of beauty KOLs in 2017 has become increasingly mature, while the more popular KOLs at that time basically used overseas brand products.

"Take the first eyeshadow category with domestic products as an example.
The average customer order for NYX Dadi and ZOEVA pumpkin trays is 120+ yuan, and the more affordable eyeshadow tray LAGIRL, ELF and other cheap customer orders are 30 yuan, and the price is in a vacuum market.
" Entrepreneurs said that this is a good opportunity to incubate domestic eye shadows.
The rise of Perfect Diary happens to occupy a blank area in the cheap domestic make-up market.

In addition, Perfect Diary captured the content e-commerce dividend of Xiaohongshu in the early days of its establishment.
An FA person who participated in the early financing of Perfect Diary told the author that the ROI of Perfect Diary in Xiaohongshu was particularly high in the early days.
According to the prospectus, as of the third quarter of last year, the number of KOLs and celebrities had reached 15,000.

However, one of the problems before them is that the brand recognition established through the low price band cannot be reversed in the short term, which limits their possibility of continuing to break through to higher customer unit prices.

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Molly

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From an operating point of view, the probability of blind boxes brings a more certain high gross profit margin.
Blind boxes can directly increase the repurchase rate.
For those non-"European" consumers, it takes more time and money to collect a complete set of IP products than to buy a set directly.

According to the prospectus, in 2017, 2018, 2019 and the first half of 2020, the gross profit margin of Bubble Mart blind box products was higher than the overall gross profit margin of the same period, ranging from 3% to 11%.
The gross profit of hidden models It will be higher.
The blind box mode also made Bubble Mart quickly stand out, surpassing Lego, and quickly climbed to the top spot in the domestic trendy play market.

Bubble Mart has seen considerable growth in online channels in recent years.
The proportion of online channel sales has increased from 9.
4% in 2017 to 40.
9% in the first half of last year, and online gross profit is higher than offline retail stores.
After the online blind box market broke out for a period of time, the concentration has increased, and the customer unit price has gradually increased.

According to a data from Tianfeng Securities, from December 2019 to August 2020, the average price of blind boxes fluctuated between 50 and 60 yuan.
From September 2020 to January 2021, the average price of blind boxes fluctuated 5 consecutively.
More than 70 yuan a month.
In addition, the number of blind box brands and the number of stores on Alibaba's entire network have turned negative for the first time in seven months, and small brands and small stores have begun to clear.
In January 2021, Alibaba has 1,520 blind box brands for trendy play, a year-on-year decrease of 3.
49%; the number of stores is 1,582, a year-on-year decrease of 17.
69%.

Tmall Bubble Mart flagship store's January sales increased year-on-year, mainly driven by the increase in product unit prices

Image source: Tianfeng Securities Research Institute

This is good news for Bubble Mart.

In addition, in the past 2020, Bubble Mart’s retail store revenue was not optimistic, especially in the first half of the year that was severely affected by the epidemic, the same store sales growth of retail stores declined by 23.
1%, and the same store sales of unmanned self-service stores were even more pronounced.
A decline of 52.
8%.
This situation still needs time to repair.

Including overseas markets, offline retail stores and unmanned smart vending machines are still the next most anticipated directions for Bubble Mart.
Among them, the average single store area of ​​contracted retail stores has an upward trend, including 2021 and the end of 2022.
The average area of ​​expired stores is 103 square meters and 176 square meters respectively.
This supports them to display more IP products in their stores.
Unmanned smart vending machines can have higher coverage in sinking markets and overseas.

The core competitiveness of Bubble Mart is still the IP operation methodology.
In the first half of 2020, its unique brand products accounted for more than 80% of the total revenue, of which its own IP and exclusive IP accounted for 34.
4% and 33.
4% of the total revenue respectively, and the gross profit was higher than the overall gross profit level.

Bubble Mart initially started by exploring the commercialization of Molly, but they are accelerating the "de-Mollyization".
While Molly’s revenue has been increasing year by year, its share of total brand revenue has decreased from 89.
4% in 2017 to 16.
3% in the first half of 2020.
Other IP revenues such as Pucky, Dimoo, BOBO&COCO, The Monsters, etc.
have been in the past year or two.
Significant growth.
As of the first half of last year, Bubble Mart has operated 93 IPs, and in 2020, it is expected to launch at least 30 new IPs throughout the year.
The partners include artists, IP operators and in-house independent creations.

It is undeniable that the trend art advocated by Bubble Mart is more about telling commercial stories.
In terms of content operation, there is still a huge gap between its IP commercial potential and Bandai and Lego.
Whether or not we can find high-quality content support will become the key to the sustainability of Bubble Mart's business.

Source: 36Kr Pro

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