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One explosive product after another has made a super pharmaceutical company
.
.
On November 1, 2022, Pfizer and Eli Lilly announced their Q3 financial reports on the same day, and the blockbuster product performance behind the two pharmaceutical giants that attracted much attention from the global market also appeared
.
Pfizer down, Lilly up
.
Perhaps it is precisely because the market has different expectations for Pfizer's new crown vaccine/new crown drug and Lilly GLP-1RA market, and the two pharmaceutical companies have also shown completely opposite trends
in the capital market this year.
As of the close of the US stock market on November 1, Pfizer closed at $48 / share (+3.
11%), it can be seen that Pfizer's share price trend began to take off in March 2021, reached its highest point at the end of December 2021, and then began to fall, and Pfizer's current share price is down more than 17% from the peak, with a market value of $269.
4 billion
.
4 billion
Lilly closed at $325.
77 per share (-2.
57%) on November 1, overall, Lilly's upward trend in recent years, from November 2020 began to accelerate, all the way, repeatedly hit new highs, the current market value of 335.
2 billion US dollars, has surpassed Pfizer about 65.
8 billion US dollars (about 478.
9 billion yuan).
2 billion US dollars, which has surpassed Pfizer by about 65.
8 billion US dollars (about 478.
9 billion yuan)
The capital trend of the two pharmaceutical companies may reflect the market's future expectations for their respective blockbuster products, and the new crown drug/new crown vaccine has brought brilliant performance to Pfizer, but is it sustainable? There is still uncertainty
.
At present, when the performance of the new crown vaccine continues to decline, Pfizer has planned to raise the price by 4 times, from exchanging volume to replenishing volume at price, which seems to be a last-ditch attempt
.
And Lilly GLP-1RA has become a popular fried chicken, on the basis of holding the basic plate of diabetes, launched a fierce attack on the field of weight loss, and the market demand is very strong
.
Morgan Stanley
Research) analysts said in a note that while reimbursement and education challenges remain, the two main competitors Lilly and Novo Nordisk are ready to open a weight loss market
worth more than $50 billion by 2030.
You must know that Humelo only sold $20.
7 billion in 2021, and Merck K Pharmaceuticals sold $17.
2 billion
in 2021.
The GLP-1RA field may be expected to have the potential for another number one drug in human history, so in this cold and generally falling market, Lilly's stock price has soared
.
worth more than $50 billion by 2030.
You must know that Humelo only sold $20.
7 billion in 2021, and Merck K Pharmaceuticals sold $17.
2 billion in 2021
Specifically:
1 Pfizer's key products
1 Pfizer's key productsNew crown mRNA vaccine Comirnaty:
New crown mRNA vaccine Comirnaty:
Q3 2022
Comirnaty's revenue decreased by 1/2 compared with the second quarter, and fell 66% year-on-year to $4.
402 billion, of which U.
S.
sales were $2.
908 billion, an increase of 83% year-on-year; Global market sales outside the U.
S.
were $1.
494 billion, down 87%
year-over-year.
Full-year sales guidance was raised to $34 billion from $32 billion
.
402 billion year-on-year
Q2 2022
Comirnaty's revenue was $8.
848 billion, down 1/3 from the first quarter, and its full-year sales guidance remained unchanged
at $32 billion.
Q1 2021 Comirnaty revenue of $13.
23 billion, higher than market expectations of $10.
6 billion, full-year sales guidance of $32 billion
.
It can be seen that Pfizer's new crown vaccine has been weak, after Reuters news, Pfizer executives said not long ago that after the expiration of the current procurement plan of the US government, Pfizer expects the price of its new crown vaccine Comirnaty to increase by about 4 times, to about $110~130 per
dose.
Industry insiders pointed out that the strategic shift from price for volume to price replenishment also reflects Pfizer's last effort
in the face of Comirnaty's declining sales.
New crown oral drug Paxlovid:
New crown oral drug Paxlovid:In Q3Paxlovid in 2022, sales of $7.
514 billion, sales in the United States of $5.
044 billion, and sales in other markets outside the United States of $2.
47 billion, Pfizer did not reflect the growth rate
in this earnings report.
Q2Paxlovid revenue in Q2022 was $8.
115 billion, up 440%
sequentially from Q1.
Sales in the U.
S.
were $4.
455 billion and sales in markets outside the U.
S.
were $3.
66 billion
.
Q1Paxlovid was $1.
5 billion in the first quarter of 2022, of which U.
S.
sales were $1.
015 billion and sales outside the U.
S.
were $455 million.
In the latest Q3 earnings report, Pfizer reiterated its revenue guidance for the new crown oral drug Paxlovid of $22 billion, and Paxlovid's total revenue in the first three quarters is currently $17.
1 billion
.
1 billion
.
It is worth mentioning that a number of securities companies have predicted
the market size of small molecule new crown drugs.
Founder Securities said that according to the annual sales expectations of the listed new crown drugs, annual sales are expected to reach 32 billion to 35 billion US dollars
.
If the antiviral drugs stockpiled by various countries need to cover 20% of the national population according to the WHO recommendation, it is conservatively expected that Europe and the United States will continue to purchase 215 million courses of treatment, and the market space will be 107.
5 billion US dollars based on 500 US
dollars / course of treatment.
Guolian Securities believes that in addition to meeting the needs of treatment, new crown drugs can also have preventive functions, and the demand for prevention is much higher than the demand for
treatment.
According to historical experience, it is estimated that there are 100 million symptomatic patients per year, and the global market size of small molecule new crown drug treatment is 40 billion US dollars per year; The small molecule new crown drug prevention market size is more than twice that of treatment, and the potential market size is at the level of
100 billion US dollars.
2 Lilly Key Products
2 Lilly Key ProductsIn this Lilly financial report, GLP-1RA performance has become the focus of
attention.
Dulaglutide (Trulicity)
Dulaglutide (Trulicity)Lilly GLP-1RA dulaglutide (Trulicity) has been benchmarking Lute and Nordliraglutide since September 2014
Better's status has continued to increase since it was approved by the FDA, and even beat Novo Nordinselglutide, which was launched in 2017, to become the global sales champion of GLP-1RA, and such sales performance was achieved without obtaining weight loss indications
.
Since the beginning of this year, dulaglutide has continued to grow, achieving revenue of 1.
85 billion US dollars in the third quarter, a year-on-year increase of 16%, and the revenue of dulaglutide in the first three quarters has reached 5.
503 billion US dollars, and Q4 is expected to continue to increase volume, exceeding the total sales
volume of 6.
5 billion US dollars in 2021.
85 billion US dollars in the third quarter, a year-on-year increase of 16%, and the revenue of dulaglutide in the first three quarters has reached 5.
503 billion US dollars, and Q4 is expected to continue to increase volume, exceeding the total sales
volume of 6.
5 billion US dollars in 2021.
Tirpotide injection Mounjaro (Tirzepatide)
Tirpotide injection Mounjaro (Tirzepatide)And Lilly's more blockbuster product in this field is - Tilbotide injection Mounjaro (Tirzepatide)!
Tirzepatide is the first dual-target GIP/GLP-1 hypoglycemic agent for the treatment of type 2 diabetes, administered once a week, as previously used in large III
In the phase of clinical practice, head-to-head defeat of semeglutide, causing heated discussions
.
Since the launch of the treatment of type 2 diabetes in May this year, according to Lilly's Q3 financial report, Trulicity sold $187 million in Q3 quarters, with a total sales volume of $200 million
since its listing.
since its listing.
It is worth noting that the performance of Tirzepatide for weight loss indications has not yet materialized
.
Tirzepatide can activate two incretinin receptors, GIP and GLP-1, to achieve more significant hypoglycemic and weight loss effects
.
Since clinical practice, Tirzepatide has been known as the strongest weight loss/hypoglycemic drug
in history.
in history.
At present, Tirzepatide has obtained FDA fast-track designation for obesity indications, and Lilly and Lilly revealed that it is expected to be submitted
after the SURMOUNT-2 data is generated in April 2023.
If Tirzepatide weight loss indications are approved, it is bound to become a star player in the field of weight loss, pointing to the next 10 billion market
.
.
In September 2022, Eli Lilly officially submitted an application for registration of Tirzepatide for improving blood glucose control in adult patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) based on diet control and exercise
to the Center for Drug Evaluation (CDE) of the National Medical Products Administration (NMPA) of China.
Will Tirzepatide be the next drug king? What changes will it bring to China's hypoglycemic/slimming market? Once medicine will continue to pay attention
.
