4 months explosion up 300% plus! Is the concept of pure speculation or really something?
Last Update: 2020-07-29
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Guide: The market value of Sanno Bio has been overdrawn for more than 2-3 years, and it is clear that the current margin of safety is very low!----Speaking of The Far, this is an institution that has never left the "spotlight" of the secondary market since its establishmentIf you want to dissect the new fund only set up less than two years ago the reason siphoning abnormal, the first thing you might think is that this is the work of big man Chen Guangming, but the secondary market waves are always big and frequent, a generation of new people for the old people are not uncommonTherefore, a fund can become evergreen tree or burst money for a long time, the core of the only talk: performanceRuiyuan's current only two funds, respectively, The combination of The U.SBalanced Value and Thefar Growth Value, although the product has been released for a short time, but the performance can only be described by the word "tough"In a total of one year and four months since its inception, The Value of Veritas has earned 91.59 per cent, while the value of TheFar has only been in the past five months and has now earned 38.09 per centThat's why there's also a "reaway" in the market, with some investors focusing on tracking companies that have held positions in the hope of copying operations to get the same excess return on investmentRecently in our knowledge planet by the circle friends concerned more is undoubtedly the domestic blood glucose instrument leading manufacturer Sanno Biological, in the company's latest disclosure of the top ten circulation shareholderlist data, the two funds ranked its sixth and seventh circulation shareholders, can be seen to be optimistic about Sanno, which Ruiyuan growth value in the fourth quarter of last year has been opened, balanced value in the first quarter of this year completed the opening of positionsAs of July 24, The closing price of Sano Bio was RMB45 per share, and the current book value of the position is approximately RMB1.023 billionFrom the trend of Sanno Bio this year, according to the March low price of 12.83 yuan per share, July high price of 53.69 yuan per share to calculate, the largest increase reached 318.47 percent, less than five months, the full pot of The Far MoneyIn addition to the market capital side (to the rui yuan lift car) drive, what supports the Three No creatures this wave of outbreak? Because of the stereotype of the previous, Sanno creature in my eyes has been just a blood glucose meter larger manufacturers, technical barriers are not thick, and then read some materials, let me understand the company's hype logicThe summary is a sentence: "The expected value of the big slow disease management platform is a thousand dollars." "Sanno biological management analysis of Sanno biological introduction: founded in 2002, is the earliest domestic blood glucose monitoring system product manufacturers, the main products for the rapid blood glucose tester and supporting test paper, and gradually extended to blood lipids, glycated hemoglobin and uric acid and other diabetes detection indicatorsCompany's products after years of promotion and application, access to the vast number of consumers recognized, products in many countries and regions around the worldIn terms of the product revenue composition of Sanno Bio 2018 and 2019, the glycemic meter accounted for 75.66 percent and 77.87 percent of total revenue, respectively, while the blood lipid detector was second, accounting for 15.77 percent and 14.71 percent of the revenue, while the glycated hemoglobin detection system was third, accounting for 7.95 percent and 6.54 percent of revenueIt is not difficult to see that the current core business of Sanno is still based on blood glucose detection system, adding blood lipids, glycifying hemoglobin testing as a supplement In 2019, the composition of Sanno Bio Revenue (by product) combined with the current revenue structure, in addition to the company's inherent blood glucose detection system module, there are two major overseas asset acquisitions are noteworthy: first, the 2016-2017 company acquired the world's leading blood lipid testing manufacturer PTS, and second, the equity subsidiary Xinno Health (currently holding 39.74%) to acquire the world's sixth largest blood glucose meter manufacturer Trividia (1) High-quality assets PTS, rich company product line: PTS main business for blood lipids and blood glucose monitoring series products and services, including blood lipid monitoring is the main business of PTS, accounting for about 60% of the company's revenue, in the global leading position, the main competitors are Roche, Alere and other multinational giants, but PTS relies on its products miniaturization, portability advantages occupy a place, ranked third in the world After the acquisition of PTS, Sanno enriched the company's original single product line, complementing its short plate in blood lipid testing and glycated hemoglobin testing PTS's blood lipid testing system directly brings Sanno to the first echelon of global blood lipid testing, which is conducive to enhancing the competitiveness of the company's products, while its broad development space will also bring rich performance returns PTS will continue to contribute stable revenue and profits to listed companies in the future, with stable growth for the rest of the year, except for 2015 due to the impact of U.S health insurance price limits, according to PTS's past financial data After the company actively developed outside the U.S market, the net profit level also gradually recovered, in 2019 Sanno disclosed the total revenue of blood lipids and glycitify hemoglobin module378 million, I believe that the future will gradually recover and exceed the 2015 profit level (2) Participate in Trividia, consolidate the advantages of sanno blood glucose testing field: Trividia is the world's sixth largest supplier of blood glucose monitoring system, the third largest in the United States, is expected to share more than 10% of the U.S market, and operating income to maintain a stable level of 1 billion yuan At present, Sanno Bio indirectly holds 39.74 percent, and if Trividia is injected into a public company, Sanno is expected to become the world's fifth largest blood glucose monitoring provider, speeding up its pursuit of Roche, Johnson and Johnson, Abbott, Bayer' four first-tier giants The sales of sanno blood glucose detection system in the hospital market is weak Trividia's old product True-Track is registered as an agent, in China's hospital market annual sales of about 30-40 million yuan, pricing and Roche and other giants basically the same, with strong competitiveness After the success of the new generation of products TRUEMETRIX registration, the combination of new products and integrated new channels, is expected to enhance the competitiveness of Sanno in the hospital market In addition, Trividia has a fully automated production line, and for 10 consecutive years through the FDA certification, through this merger and acquisition to introduce new technology, the local process of Sanno to automate the transformation, help to improve its productivity and comprehensive profitability (3) The endogenous growth of the domestic company's blood glucose detection system: We observed the company's revenue data for 2008-2019, without a year of decline, which shows the huge market of the blood glucose detection system and the company's endogenous growth In my opinion, because the traditional blood glucose detection technical barriers are not high, the future impact of market competition pattern is most likely to be brand competitiveness, first-mover market advantages and other factors From the 2016 competition pattern, imported brands because of the early entry time, strong brand advantage, in the hospital market accounted for the majority of the share With the development of domestic brands in recent years, with cost-effective advantages continue to squeeze the import market share, the current market share of Sanno Bio has been increased to 15-20% There are several reasons for the continuous expansion of the advantages of sanno biological in the field of domestic blood glucose detection for the following reasons: technical barriers (large-scale production): the quality rate of large-scale production of blood glucose test paper is the core competitiveness of the blood glucose industry, because the test paper test results are vulnerable to humidity, temperature and stabilizer blending and other factors, in the context of large-scale production of test strips, different batches and the same batch of test strips may produce error differences, relative stability is weak The company's good product rate from 60% in 2002 to 90% in 2009, has now reached more than 95%, and the current majority of new competitors good product rate is still at a low level, can not achieve large-scale production Commercial barriers (brand stickiness, market capacity): strong dependence on early input, sales force and instrument delivery decision late output The algorithm software in the glucose meter is specially written for a specific test strip, so the blood glucose tester and test strip are one-to-one corresponding closed relationship, different brands and models of instruments and test strips can not be universal, business model for the instrument-driven test strip, the early investment dependence is strong Blood glucose detection system tester is a durable consumer goods, usually can be used for 2-5 years, so the blood glucose meter industry reflects a strong customer stickiness, and later access to increased cost, channels for core competitiveness According to the 2017 company disclosed data, the company's sales reached 878 people, is currently the domestic manufacturers in the blood glucose meter line sales staff, not only more than the same industry, and focus on the blood glucose meter marketing In addition, the company's number of dealers, coverage terminals are also the industry's largest, the company through direct cooperation (for the top 100 chains) and distributors (for small pharmacies), covering more than 100,000 retail drugstore terminals, pharmacy coverage reached 23% (according to the Ministry of Commerce data) Scale barrier (gross margin space): the high scale level of enterprise advantages are obvious As the industry leader, the average gross margin of Sanno Bio in recent years is about 5 percentage points higher than that of Yicheng Bio, the second-highest in the industry We believe that the scale effect of gross margin is mainly due to the decreasing marginal cost under fixed cost In the cost composition, the raw materials of Sanno bio and Yicheng bioinny in 2015 accounted for about 28% of revenue, while the fixed cost of Sanno bio-share accounted for only 7.6% of revenue, while the proportion of Yicheng bio-organisms was 12.1% In the OTC market, price competition is an important aspect of the domestic blood glucose meter competition Because of the cost advantage, the gross margin of Sanno bioprofit is significantly higher than that of other enterprises in the industry, so in the price, Sanno bio has more space Endogenous and mergers and acquisitions, outlining a blueprint for the management of large and slow diseases In recent years, the increase of aging worldwide and the modern human drinking, smoking and other undesirable habits, as well as the increase in obesity levels of the population, etc make all kinds of cardiovascular diseases (in which the increase in blood lipid levels may lead to diseases such as atherosclerosis, coronary heart disease, pancreatitis), diabetes (it is expected that by 2030, diabetes will become the world's seventh leading cause of death) rapidly increased the risk of disease On the one hand, in the context of increased risk of disease, the demand for blood lipid monitoring and regular blood glucose monitoring will increase in the context of disease prevention and the desire for early detection and treatment of the disease So for some time to come, blood lipid and glycitated hemoglobin testing will see significant growth in use, and in emerging regions such as China and India, governments in some regions are actively advocating for reduced hospital admissions and other traditional treatment monitoring methods, as well as in the interests of reducing household health care The development of the model has effectively promoted the progress of POCT hemoglobin and glycite hemoglobin monitoring industry, and with the progress of POCT lipid monitoring technology and glycitine testing with its trauma-free and painless, higher test efficiency, reliable results and so on, the rapid realization of clinical promotion, will drive the development of the whole industry The above analysis of the future trend is taken from the company's annual report, investors can clearly feel the company's management of the future global high-frequency testing needs and the company's product layout understanding, Sanno in strengthening the deep-cultivated diabetes disease on the basis of the same focus on the layout of high blood lipids, high uric acid and other common chronic diseases of market demand, the company into a comprehensive slow-motion monitoring and management platform On the basis of the existing electrochemical detection technology, Sanno Bio integrates PTS advanced photochemical detection technology to carry out innovation simply in the field of biological sensing, and integrates the testing of blood sugar, blood lipids, hemoglobin, uric acid, glycated hemoglobin and other markers Future performance is mainly driven by the future chronic disease management of the huge market background, combined with the company's existing product line and in the research pipeline, I think the main performance drivers of The future of Sanyo bio concentrated in the following five points: 1, a large group of diabetics, know, confirm the low rate: China's largest number of owners of diabetes, the number of more than 100 million, but the confirmation rate is very low According to the National Health and Planning Commission, the confirmed rate of diabetes in 2013 was only 3.51%, or about 47.39 million witnesses, indicating that there are still a large number of diabetics in the early stages, not confirmed With the improvement of the awareness of health management of rural and urban residents, the number of confirmed witnesses of diabetes in China will be further increased, and there will be more new groups of patients for blood glucose control management, which is a breakthrough in the stock Aging, residents' eating habits also induce an increase in the incidence of diabetes, and more patients need treatment and blood glucose control management, which is an increase 2, hospital import substitution acceleration, OTC market to further expand market share: domestic blood glucose meter sales pattern is divided into retail OTC and hospital channels, market share of 50% In the OTC market, the dominant sales volume is the price factor, so domestic manufacturers occupy the main market share And Sanno bio for the domestic blood glucose meter OTC market leader, occupy more than 50% of the market share, this advantage is expected to appear in the Matthew effect, Sanno's scale barrier sandbrings a strong cost advantage transmitted downstream, forming the end price advantage At the same time, the company's strong marketing capacity to master a number of large base, high stickiness of customers, relying on Sanno in the field of blood sugar brand capacity, the future revenue will grow steadily At present, more than 80% of the market share of the hospital channel is occupied by imported brands, the main participants are Johnson and Johnson, Roche, Abbott and other enterprises Sanno biological high-end products "gold" series has been FDA certification, quality performance close to imported products, in the classification of diagnosis and treatment brought about by the market expansion and medical insurance control fees in the background, Sanno high-end products will usher in accelerated opportunities to replace imported products, the last two years have a certain momentum 3, blood lipids, glycation hemoglobin market is small, full of growth elasticity: the current blood lipids, glycation hemoglobin module contribution performance is not much, but the future growth space is huge Take the blood lipid testing market as an example, the domestic blood lipid abnormal population base is large, blood lipid detection market prospects are very broad According to the Guidelines for the Prevention and Control of Blood Lipid Abnormalities in Adults in China (2016 Revision), the overall prevalence of blood lipid abnormalities in adults in China is as high as 40.40%, while blood lipid abnormalities greatly increase the risk of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) If our residents strictly in accordance with the Guidelines for blood lipid testing, then we expect china's blood lipid testing market will be close to 30 billion yuan In 2018, PTS lipid testing products in China sales of about 0.8-10 0 million yuan, showing how much potential the market has not been tapped 4, Sanno overseas mergers and acquisitions, channel enrichment brought about by the chemical reaction: Sanno Bio's overseas mergers and acquisitions in addition to enriching the company's product line, there are deeper market considerations It is worth mentioning that the acquisition of PTS is also important to obtain its global network of channels, distributors covering the United States, Europe, Asia, and Oceania and other 135 countries and regions PTS has 125 dealers in the U.S and 165 dealers outside the U.S., according to data disclosed in 2017 Sanno Bio will use its global channels to open its own independent research and development of blood glucose meter overseas sales, the company's future to become a global leading manufacturer of blood sugar has a remarkable significance 5, CGM (continuous blood glucose detection) research and development progress domestic leading, the first advantage brings potential stock price reaction: Sanno in The CGM has been laid out for more than ten years, 2018 has been in the Ministry of Science and Technology's active health project, the current laboratory products have been completed and biocompatibility experiments have been completed, will soon enter the stage of clinical registration The company aims to complete the registration of the department area within two years and the listing within three years (At present, sanno progress ahead of other domestic manufacturers) if the future can take the lead in the domestic launch of products such as Dekang medical, will be.
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