58 pharmaceutical and biological companies, 49 Preview

Source: the disclosure of 2015-01-15 annual report of Chinanet is about to start According to the published performance forecast, the pharmaceutical industry is one of the few industries that are not troubled by the slowdown of economic growth in the two cities at present Data shows that of 58 pharmaceutical companies that have issued performance forecasts, 49 companies have reached 84.48% of the total Analysis shows that as the market's investment hotspot gradually transits from undervalued value to low growth, the pharmaceutical stocks that "ran too slowly" before have the requirement to make up for the rise, and they have been on the "wind tunnel" More than 80% of the industry's annual reports are scheduled to be disclosed according to the schedule announced by Shanghai Stock Exchange and Shenzhen Stock Exchange The disclosure of 2014 annual reports of listed companies will be officially opened on January 15, that is, this Thursday With the gradual progress of the annual report disclosure, the market focus turns to the China market In this context, the performance of industry and individual stocks has attracted much attention According to statistics, as of January 12, 1079 companies in Shanghai and Shenzhen have issued performance forecasts for 2014 annual report, of which 722 companies have realized the increase in advance, slight increase, profit continuation and loss reversal, and the proportion of expected earnings reached 66.91% From the perspective of the pre growth of individual stocks in the industry, medicine is one of the few industries that are not plagued by the slowdown of economic growth and whose performance continues to maintain an obvious momentum Statistics show that among 58 pharmaceutical and biological industry companies that have issued performance forecast, 49 companies have achieved pre increase, slight increase, profit continuation and loss reversal, and the proportion of pre-gratification is 84.48% In addition, 30 companies are expected to increase 30% or more in advance, and more than 50% of Companies in the pharmaceutical and biological industry are expected to increase 30% or more in net profit in 2014 According to the analysis, although the announcement of China Daily is only the tip of the iceberg, it can still be seen from the inside Generally speaking, if there are multiple companies in the same industry predicting the performance growth at the same time, it has certain representativeness There are many companies in the pharmaceutical and biological industry, indicating that the overall growth of this industry is quite good Industry insiders said in an interview that with the economic development and the improvement of people's living standards, the demand for biomedical products is increasing day by day, and the biomedical industry has a certain growth In addition, with the rapid development of medical reform and the national basic drug system, the total health expenditure will continue to grow rapidly, laying a solid foundation for the development of biomedical industry "In the medium and long term, China's pharmaceutical industry has a huge development space China's medical expenditure is significantly lower than that of developed countries With the development of economy and the improvement of health consciousness, medical expenditure will increase rapidly In addition, the aging population and other reasons will continue to increase the demand of the pharmaceutical industry " The researcher of Anxin Securities pointed out China's aging trend will surely increase the growth space of the pharmaceutical and biological industry Experts predict that by 2025, the number of elderly people over 60 years old will reach 291 million, and by 2050, it is expected to reach 440 million A large number of elderly people will also inject growth power into China's pharmaceutical industry Some of the 58 pharmaceutical and biological industry companies with high growth have published the performance forecast, in addition to over 80% of the company's super high proportion of expectations, some companies also show the characteristics of high growth, and many companies' performance has increased by more than 100% year-on-year and month on month Among them, nine companies, such as Frey, Asia Pacific pharmaceutical, Zhongyuan Xiehe, Kangzhi pharmaceutical, Shanghai Laishi, wohua pharmaceutical, Xinbang pharmaceutical, Haixiang pharmaceutical and Northeast Pharmaceutical, have at least doubled their predicted net profit growth In addition, three companies, Yifan Xinfu, Hainan Haiyao and Yuheng pharmaceutical, also increased by more than 100% in advance According to the performance forecast issued by relevant companies, 14 companies, including Haixiang pharmaceutical, Zixin pharmaceutical, Yifan Xinfu, Guizhou bailing, sunflower pharmaceutical, Shuangcheng pharmaceutical, Northeast Pharmaceutical, Asia Pacific pharmaceutical, Hansen pharmaceutical, XinHeCheng, HISCO, Qizheng Tibetan pharmaceutical, Guilin Sanjin and wohua pharmaceutical, will achieve a net profit growth of more than 100% month on month in 2014 It is worth mentioning that this was caused by the slowdown in the growth of the pharmaceutical industry in 2014 Relevant statistics show that the growth rate of the pharmaceutical industry slowed down in 2014 due to factors such as the expected price reduction of Chinese patent medicine and slower than expected bidding According to the latest research report of Guosen Securities, from January to November 2014, the revenue of the pharmaceutical industry increased by 12.8%, still maintaining a stable growth at the bottom; however, the profit growth rate from January to November was 12.0%, down from 12.9% from January to October However, since the second quarter of last year, the growth rate of the industry's income and profit has stopped falling and stabilized, and has picked up significantly month by month since July Analysts of Societe Generale Securities said that the pharmaceutical industry has gradually returned to stable growth after passing the dividend era of medical reform, and it is expected that the overall growth of the pharmaceutical industry in the whole year is expected to continue at about 10% - 15% According to Guoxin Securities, with the basic realization of full coverage of medical insurance, the pressure of medical insurance payment is becoming increasingly severe In the future, medical insurance fee control is the general trend It is expected that the industry will enter a "new normal" of 12% - 15% growth in the next five to 10 years "With the acceleration of aging, the increase of the proportion of government expenditure, the increase of residents' income, the continuation of urbanization, the deterioration of health and the environmental cost, there is no doubt that the growth rate of domestic pharmaceutical industry will be higher than that of GDP for a long time in the future." Industry insiders pointed out Xu Liehai, an analyst with China Merchants Securities, said that aging and environmental changes promoted changes in incidence rate and disease spectrum, and the continuous input of the state to universal health insurance increased the accessibility of medical treatment and ensured the long-term growth of the pharmaceutical industry The demand for replenishment of medical blue chip deposit just passed 2014, the medical sector increased by 16.84%! Compared with the rise of Shanghai stock index of nearly 53% in the same period, the medical sector is obviously "too little" According to the analysis, as the market's investment hot spot gradually transits from undervalued to low rising, the medicine stocks that run too slowly have the requirement of replenishment, and are expected to get the attention of capital again "With the continuous rise of the index, the valuation advantages of pharmaceutical stocks are reflected again after the valuation of large blue chip stocks such as brokers, banks, insurance, infrastructure and so on is gradually restored." Industry insiders pointed out that at present, the traditional white horse stock of medicine can be actively allocated The recent strength of blue chip Yunnan Baiyao and Tongrentang means that the phase adjustment of the pharmaceutical sector has ended since 2014 Guotai Junan recently published a monthly investment strategy report on the pharmaceutical industry, saying that the pharmaceutical index fell 4.6% in the past two months, significantly beating the Shanghai Composite Index Short and urgent market is not normal, nor long After the rapid adjustment, the double high pressure of valuation and position has been released, but the structural valuation difference is still prominent, and some stable blue chips and real growth stocks have the opportunity of midline layout Xiang Jun, an analyst at Societe Generale Securities, pointed out that the poor performance of early stage medicine was mainly due to the market's expectation of liquidity relaxation and macroeconomic transformation reform, which made the capital allocation preference tend to underestimate the large market value weight plate, and the medicine plate was caused by the continuous reduction of institutional holdings However, after two months of sharp correction, the premium rate of medical valuation has fallen back to the mid-2010 level, most white horse stocks have a high margin of safety, and the comparative advantage of the industry is expected to be re established "In 2014, the performance of pharmaceutical blue chip lagged behind After a round of sharp increase in the early market as a whole, the valuation premium rate of pharmaceutical blue chip dropped significantly Blue chip is the leading company in the field of various molecules, and will share the feast of industry concentration improvement in the future." Qian Zhenghao, an analyst at Shenyin Wanguo, pointed out According to Qian Zhenghao, in January, pharmaceutical shares concentrated in the first-line Baima shares, and Hengrui pharmaceutical, Kangmei pharmaceutical, Yunnan Baiyao, Tianshi, dong'a-jiao, China Resources Sanjiu, Tongrentang, etc are expected to obtain significant excess earnings Hengrui Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd is one of the pharmaceutical enterprises with the strongest R & D ability in China Since its listing, its performance has experienced a transformation from high growth to steady growth The company adjusted its strategy in time, changing from the past "transformation from imitation to innovation" to "equal emphasis on imitation and innovation", and a large number of new generic reserve varieties have entered the approval channel At the beginning of November last year, apatinib mesylate, a heavy-duty 1.1 new drug developed by the company for ten years, was officially approved It is pointed out that Hengrui is one of the few companies in the industry that has achieved steady growth, and has strong cash flow and extremely low leverage ratio, which confirms its stable operation style After more than ten years of R & D investment, the company is expected to start a large number of heavy new varieties, and the overseas market will also be released, which will promote the growth of performance and have high investment value ◆ Kangmei Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd is a modern large-scale pharmaceutical resource-based enterprise with the production of Chinese herbal pieces as the core and the business covering the whole industry chain of Chinese herbal medicine At present, it has formed the integrated development mode of industrial chain of "traditional Chinese Medicine - Herbal Pieces - hospitals and retail terminals", and the profit mode of "resource monopoly - cooperation of producing areas - winning the pricing right" of traditional Chinese medicine trade According to the securities firm research report, the company has a full industrial chain running through the upstream and downstream of traditional Chinese medicine The trade business of traditional Chinese medicine has developed steadily, the bottleneck of production capacity of decoction pieces has been gradually eliminated, and the downstream consumer goods are growing rapidly The e-commerce platform helps the company's businesses to rise to a higher level, with a sustainable growth period The reasonable market value of the company in 2015-16 is estimated at RMB 51.2 billion and RMB 71.4 billion, corresponding to the share prices of RMB 22.97 and RMB 32.03 According to this calculation, the company's share price will have more than 80% rising space in the next two years (at present, the share price is 17.06 yuan) ◆ dong'a gum company is the largest gum manufacturer in China In mid August, the company began to increase the maximum retail price of gum paste by no more than 53% The factory price will be adjusted accordingly The analysis shows that it is difficult to see the volume and price of donkey hide gelatin block rise in the future However, with the growth of derivatives such as compound donkey hide gelatin paste and taohuaji donkey hide gelatin cake, the company's performance is no longer only dependent on donkey hide gelatin block, and the listing of small molecule donkey hide gelatin also injects new impetus for the subsequent growth Guotai Junan analysts said that the period of high growth of performance with the volume and price of donkey hide gelatin block rising has passed The company has entered a stable growth stage Relying on the steady price increase of donkey hide gelatin block, the volume of derivatives and the development of new products, it is enough to support the stable growth of 10-20% in the future in the short term From the perspective of valuation comparison, the market has fully reflected the impact of price increase on short-term sales In the future, as long as the sales of donkey hide gelatin blocks remain relatively stable, derivatives and new products can make breakthroughs, and the valuation has room for further repair Tongrentang company, founded in 1669, is a "century old shop" that has been successfully operated for hundreds of years It is the gold brand of traditional Chinese medicine in China, and has an unshakable representative position in the field of traditional Chinese medicine It is generally believed that Tongrentang, as a treasure of traditional Chinese medicine, has great brand value At present, its operation has not yet reflected the company's potential The company has favorable expectation of low-cost drug policy and future reform expectation of state-owned enterprises, and the long-term space is still large According to the research report recently published by Galaxy Securities, due to the impact of the overall external environment, the growth rate of Tongrentang's performance has declined significantly, which is about 15% in the short term In the long run, the company has a strong brand power, with more than 800 production batches, but the daily sales of only more than 400 varieties, the product potential is far from being released With the promotion of the reform process of state-owned enterprises, the potential of the company will be gradually released