$96 billion: Can AstraZeneca and Gilead's "Century Merger" succeed?

Pharmaceutical Network June 10 - Following the large-scale merger sands of Takeda and Shire, AbbVie and Eljian, BMS and NewAge, a new round of "century mergers" rumored by AstraZeneca and Gilead, if successfully completed, will undoubtedly once again refresh the amount of mergers and acquisitions in the pharmaceutical industry in the past decadeBut for the time being, there are many factors influencing the success of such a mega-dealHow will the next phase of AstraZeneca's and Gilead merger rumors tell? Do you see the end result?On June 7th, Bloomberg, citing people familiar with the matter, said AstraZeneca could buy Gilead for $96 billion, and the two companies made preliminary contact last month about a potential acquisitionIn response to the rumors, E drug managers first contacted AstraZeneca and Gilead officialsAstraZeneca China and Gilead China agreed that they would not comment on the current market rumorsIn recent years, the amount of mergers and acquisitions of bio
pharmaceuticalis getting bigger and biggerTakeda will buy Shire for $64 billion in 2018, AbbVie$63 billion in 2019 and BMS for $74 billionNow, with the $96 billion deal coming out, how credible is the rumor? What was your first reaction? What is auslecostal and Gilead in?Also in May 2014, AstraZeneca confirmed its rejection of Pfizer'
s $117 billion acquisitionAt the time, AstraZeneca argued that the offer greatly underestimated the value the company should haveAstraZeneca was in an awkward position when Pfizer made its offer: the company's revenue and net profit fell for three years in a row as the three core products of Essomeprazole, Thiopenpin and Rishuavastatin faced patent cliffsAt the time, Pascal Soriot, AstraZeneca's president, threatened to double AstraZeneca's sales over the next decadeBy 2019, half the time has passed, and AstraZeneca's sales have fallen by nearly $3 billion, instead of growingWhile revenues have been on the decline, AstraZeneca has been ramping up its research and development investment, and since 2015 AstraZeneca's research and development efficiency has begun to improve dramatically, with several heavyweights listed, such as Ochtini (the company's largest variety with sales of $3.19 billion in 2019), Devalu monotorintake (PD-L1 monoron, sales of $1.469 billion in 2019), and suspended yellowingAstraZeneca's revenue sourcing and profits began to rebound in 2019, helped by a significant increase in Ochitini( up 82% year-on-year in 2019The current AstraZeneca is only just emerging from the slide, and is still a long way from doublingThe same is true of GileadOn the one hand, performance has entered a downward spiralFrom 2006 to 2015, Gilead experienced a period of high growth in performance, and in 2015 its performance began to decline and has not stopped fallingOn the other hand, a major wave of Gilead products is under threat from patent cliffs, including Enqualabin, Lipivirin, Tenofovir and all other AIDS medications that expire by 2020, most of them by 2018In addition to anti-AIDS drugs, both of the products, including the treatment of hepatitis C, in Novoveysopsi, and cardiovascular medications, have all expiredAfter Gilead's hepatitis C drug propylene-to-sand exit, the head variety is small, only THE HIV drug Biktarvy a dark horse, after the 2018 market quickly opened the market, become the largest variety, sales in 2019 reached $4.738 billion, up 300% year-on-yearHowever, due to the continued contraction of the hepatitis C market, the product alone has not been able to reverse the decline in performanceInterestingly, the twocompanies in the same situationteamleader, AstraZeneca's current CEO Pascal Soriot and Gilead's current CEO, Dan O'Day, who previously worked as an executive at Roche PharmaceuticalsThe "eight rods can't hit" product linethe same situation, but the texture is completely different, the existing products almost no coincide cross 　　AstraZeneca's existing product revenue mainly comes from four major blocks: anti-tumor drug revenue contribution accounted for 34%, metabolic drug use accounted for 26%, respiratory drugs accounted for 21%, other areas drugs accounted for 19% 　　Gilead's existing product income is mainly derived from AIDS drugs, the proportion of this part accounted for 74%, followed by hepatitis drugs accounted for 16%, cardiovascular drugs, anti-tumor drugs accounted for 4% and 3%, respectively 　　AstraZeneca is primarily in the field of anti-tumor, Lynparza has been approved by the FDA for the treatment of pancreatic cancer, applications for the treatment of SCLC adaptation certificates have been submitted; Imfinzi has been approved for the treatment of non-small cell lung cancer; 　　And Gilead's current research and development of varieties reserves are mainly used for wind-like adaptation certificate filgotinib has been used in the U.S NDA stage, for R/R MCL (recurrent/refractable encell lymphoma) adaptation certificate KTE-X19 in the United States and Europe into the BLA stage, for the treatment of R/R BCL adaptation certificate mavrlimumab FDA in the United States to clinical phase 2 　　Optimistic or not optimistic about is why, rumors will trigger a heated debate, many people in the industry's first reaction is incredible 　　Snowball V Stevevai 1983 believes that completely unreasonable, there is no synergy in the business, AZ growth in the next 5 years or more worry-free, the merger will pull down their own growth rate Weibo big V Eloma think, AZ eat sgolder? It's hard Redseve's hype is a $97 billion market value and $20 billion in cash Gilled's existing products are mainly in the antiviral - acquisition of Kite Pharma cells to treat blood tumors, HCV flash (last year health insurance negotiations for three hepatitis C products domestic price reduction of 90%), cell treatment embarrassing, now more than 70% of the income also comes from anti-HIV treatment At present, the layout product line is mainly in the anti-viral, inflammatory disease , tumor industry insiders also said that the United States will vote against, affected by the economic environment, if agreed to merge, that may lead to tax losses 　　"What would be the effect of a $140 billion-or-more acquisition of more than $90 billion?" It's better to say that Gilead is independent, and The pharmaceutical industry is a bit like Tesla in the auto industry, maverick, but also commercially successful..." says a snowball secondary market investor 　　But there are also supporters who argue that AstraZeneca and Gilead are both in the downward spiral, and that, even with varying degrees of rise, they are in a very similar position, as AstraZeneca has historically done to expand through acquisitions 　　Some industry analysts believe that this matter is somewhat exaggerated, it may be that the two sides exchange dating, but it is not impossible "No synergy is normal, there is co-operation anti-monopoly is not good, this is to expand the scale to increase the valuation to reduce fault tolerance, as to the growth rate of what, are false, as long as there is no big sister-in-law, such as heavy productclinical failure, quality problems and so on black swan, financial check under the growth rate of the year before can be arranged "