A picture to understand the map of China's coal industry behind the "power curtailment"

Due to the decline in thermal power production in August, power curtailment policies were issued in many places in September

In the context of the global energy crisis, the shortage of coal is difficult to alleviate in the short term.

01 65% of power generation comes from coal power

In 2020, nearly 65% ​​of China's total power generation capacity of 7.

In order to ensure the supply of coal, since this year, China has stepped up production of coal mines under construction and newly commissioned coal mines (including joint trial operation) to achieve an increase in production capacity of about 100 million tons per year

According to incomplete statistics, since August, China's coal production capacity of about 120 million tons has been released one after another, but coal supply and demand are still in a tight state

02 Thermal coal prices continue to soar

Some analysts say that coal prices continue to soar, or the main reason for the decline in thermal power production

From September 24 to October 8, thermal coal prices continued their upward trend, and the annual price center continued to rise

　　At the same time, under the influence of the global energy crisis, international thermal coal prices have also risen sharply
.

　　03 The gap between the supply and demand of thermal coal will be sharply widened in 2021

　　Data show that from January to July 2021, the gap between the supply and demand of thermal coal has reached 10.
69 million tons, and this figure was only about 20 million tons in the same period of 2018-2019
.
It is worth noting that September and October are the central stocking periods for coal storage in winter, and the heating period begins in November and December
.

　　At present, power supply mainly relies on thermal power
.

　　According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, from January to August 2021, the national thermal power generation capacity was 3872.
3 billion kWh, a cumulative year-on-year increase of 12.
6%; the national average utilization time of thermal power generation was 3,034 hours, a cumulative year-on-year increase of 11.
6%
.

　　04 In 2020, 70% of my country's coal will come from these three provinces

　　Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, and Shaanxi are the three major coal-producing provinces in China
.
According to data from the China Coal Industry Association, China's total coal production in 2020 will be 3.
9 billion tons, of which the coal production of the top three provinces accounted for 70% of the total coal production
.

　　According to BP's "World Energy Statistics Review 2020", China's proven coal reserves account for 13% of the world's total reserves, ranking fourth in the world in total
.
Most of China's coal reserves are located in the north and northwest regions, mainly from the following 14 large coal production bases
.

　　05 Shandong, Inner Mongolia, and Jiangsu are the “big producers” of thermal power generation

　　According to data from the China Electric Power Statistical Yearbook 2021, Shandong, Inner Mongolia and Jiangsu are the three provinces with the highest thermal power generation
.
Nearly half of the provinces in the country have a negative balance between electricity generation and consumption, and the three provinces of Guangdong, Zhejiang and Jiangsu have the largest difference in electricity generation and consumption
.

　　In 2020, Inner Mongolia, Yunnan and Sichuan will send the most electricity across provinces, with 231.
077 billion kWh, 166.
430 billion kWh and 142.
586 billion kWh respectively
.

Transfer from: Beijing News Shell Finance