A slight upward dip in rubber stocks may maintain bullish expectations in the medium and long term

During the holiday, the domestic heavy-duty truck sales data for September continued to show weakness, and the sales of heavy-duty trucks in September were expected to be about 60,000 units, up 17% month-on-month and down 60% year-on-year, hitting a new low in the same period of nearly five years, which is mainly related
to the domestic economic downturn and the real estate downturn.
Before the holiday, the domestic market price was firm, mainly related to the exit of the arbitrage market and the basic reflection of the bearish demand in the market
.

From the current fundamental point of view, it is difficult to appear in the same period last year, mainly because the domestic demand is not as good as the same period last year, and the supply side does not exist the same period last year, although the domestic spot is relatively tight, but due to the decline in demand for concentrated latex and the release of domestic raw materials normally, RU warehouse receipt is difficult to appear tense
.

Entering October, due to the peak season of overseas snow tires, the operating rate of domestic tire factories is expected to rebound, and Thailand and other major production areas still have rainfall, it is expected that short-term supply is difficult to release in large quantities, superimposed on the impact of logistics delay, it is expected that the tight situation of domestic spot supply can be maintained, therefore, rubber prices are expected to rebound in October, but it is difficult to have a sustained rise in the market, it is recommended to be
cautious.

The fourth quarter is in the seasonal high production period, the rainfall in the main production areas during the holiday is relatively normal, the rain after the holiday will affect the output of raw materials, and the prices of raw materials at home and abroad before and after the holiday are slightly adjusted
.
The number of holidays of tire companies in the middle and lower reaches of the festival is more than the same period last year but less than market expectations, and the decline in tire starts in the middle of the festival is conducive to reducing the pressure of high finished product inventory, and the start of work after the holiday will gradually recover, but there are still uncertain effects on environmental protection, power rationing and other factors
.

China's dark rubber inventory fell sharply year-on-year, light rubber inventory fell slightly year-on-year, short-term accelerated accumulation, Qingdao destocking time continued to extend, and there was a possibility
of tightening during the shutdown period after the year.
After the holiday, the bullish mentality in the internal and external markets of the industry is still strong
.
On the whole, there is still a slight upward test possibility in the short term after the holiday, and the bullish expectation
is maintained in the medium and long term.