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    Home > Active Ingredient News > Feed Industry News > Abnormal growth of feed demand and high yield of grain and oil still can't control the price rise

    Abnormal growth of feed demand and high yield of grain and oil still can't control the price rise

    • Last Update: 2012-12-19
    • Source: Internet
    • Author: User
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    Introduction: Due to the strong growth of feed demand from China, the International Grain Council (IGC) said in its latest research report that although it is expected that the growth trend of global grain and oilseed production will continue to 2017 / 2018, due to the strong demand for feed in China, unless the harvest output exceeds the expectation, the global inventory growth space is limited, and the price will be easy to rise and hard to fall AXA's International Grain Council expects global wheat and coarse grain production to exceed 2 billion tons in 2017 / 18, up from 1.76 billion tons this year If the weather conditions are normal, the production in 2013 / 2014 will recover significantly from the level in 2012 / 2013, and the average annual growth in subsequent years will be about 1.6% AXA expects the increase in grain supply to be focused on corn In 2013 / 2014, the global grain ending inventory is expected to be 346 million tons, which is higher than the five-year low of 325 million tons this year In the next few years, the growth of global consumption will exceed the production, and the inventory may drop to 329 million tons by 2017 / 2018 Among AXA, it is expected that the global corn and wheat production will recover in 2013 / 2014, and it is expected to rebuild part of the inventory Due to the dry weather in the United States and the Black Sea region, the inventory of this year has been few From 2014 / 2015 to 2017 / 2018, corn production will increase by 2.3% annually, wheat production by 1.5% and barley production by 1.7% However, the improvement of supply will basically absorb the growth of consumption AXA "feed demand will be mainstream and become one of the main sources of consumption growth." The International Grains Council forecasts an average annual increase in feed demand of 2.5% between 2014 / 2015 and 2017 / 2018, compared with a 1.2% increase in food demand For cereals, IGC expects that the absolute value of inventory will decline after 2014 / 2015, and the ratio of inventory to consumption will show that the market supply is tight By 2017 / 18, the grain inventory to consumption ratio will be reduced to 16%, compared with 18% at the end of this year Tight supply will make prices more likely to rise and fluctuate sharply In terms of AXA's oil products, the International Grain Council expects that the global oil seed production will grow rapidly in 2013 / 14, with an increase of 5.1%, and then the annual growth rate will be 2.1% in the following years, because of the strong demand In addition, oil seed consumption will grow strongly, with an annual growth rate of about 2.6%, due to the expansion of processing industry and breeding industry AXA said, however, that oil seed stocks will recover significantly in the next few years and then stabilize Global wheat and coarse grain trade is expected to grow by 19% in 2017 / 18, close to 300 million tons, while soybean and rapeseed trade will grow by 21%, all due to strong import demand in China AXA obviously, despite the expectation of sustained grain production in the next five years, the International Grain Council is still surprised by China's strong import demand According to the latest statistics of the General Administration of Customs of China, China's grain import from January to November this year has reached 13.4 million tons, double the 4.5 million tons in the same period last year A large number of grain imports have made China the second largest importer of rice and barley in the world, and the top 10 importers of corn and the top 20 importers of wheat Among AXA, the main reason for the largest increase in feed demand is also China Because of the change of Chinese diet, as more and more people enter the city, the increase of meat consumption leads to the need for more food to feed livestock and poultry This change puts more pressure on China's agriculture, which used to solve the problem of feeding one fifth of the world's population with a small amount of farmland and water This is also an important reason for the increasing scale of China's grain imports Axa
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