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    Home > Chemicals Industry > China Chemical > Acetic acid: rise and fall by 106%

    Acetic acid: rise and fall by 106%

    • Last Update: 2021-07-30
    • Source: Internet
    • Author: User
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      In the first half of the year, the acetic acid market opened low and moved high.
    After the opening price of 4,366.
    67 yuan (ton price, the same below), the price fell briefly to an annual low of 3,950 yuan, and then started a skyrocketing pattern, rising to a historical high of 8137.
    5 yuan and then turned around.
    , The final closing at 7450 yuan, the maximum amplitude reached 106%

    .

      Rush to historical highs

    Rush to historical highs Rush to historical highs

      According to Guo Xun, an acetic acid analyst at Zhuo Chuang Chemical, the acetic acid market in the first four months of this year showed a stair-like upward trend, reaching a high price in the first half of the year at the end of April
    .

      At the beginning of the year, the overall inventory of the acetic acid industry was low.
    Jiangsu Thorpe, Tianjin Soda Plant, Hebei Kingboard and other units were shut down for maintenance one after another, and other parts of the equipment were also unstable.
    The overall operating rate of the industry was 70%~80 %, the inventory of acetic acid enterprises has been maintained at a low level of 70,000 to 100,000 tons

    .
    In the same period, the downstream PTA industry of acetic acid released new production capacity, and the monthly theoretical increase of acetic acid consumption was 20,000 to 25,000 tons

    .
    With the blessing of rigid demand, the supply of acetic acid in the spot market is tight, which drives up the price

    .
    At the end of April, the price of acetic acid in East China reached 8,100-8500 yuan, an increase of about 32.
    8% month-on-month, and 238.
    1% more than the same period in 2020.
    The acetic acid market in Jiangsu reached 8,250 yuan, the Shandong market reached 7,900 yuan, and the South China market reached 8,525 yuan

    .

      From May to June, the shutdown of the acetic acid plant was relatively reduced, the industry operating rate increased compared with the first quarter, and the load fluctuated in the range of 74% to 94%
    .
    During the same period, the cost pressure of downstream factories became more obvious, the pace of sourcing was forced to slow down, the atmosphere of market negotiations began to fade, and the price of acetic acid basically stopped rising and entered the stage of digestion and consolidation

    .
    At the end of June, the price of acetic acid in East China fell to 7,600-8150 yuan, the South China market fell to 7,800-7850 yuan, the Shandong market fell to 7,650 yuan, and the Jiangsu market fell to 7,500-7700 yuan

    .

      Supply shortage pushed up

    Supply shortage pushes up supply shortage pushes up

      "With a slight decrease in supply, domestic demand and a substantial increase in exports, a certain supply gap has appeared in the acetic acid market, pushing the price of acetic acid to a historical high in the first half of the year
    .
    " Jin Lianchuang analyst Xu Na analyzed

    .

      In terms of supply, the total domestic output of acetic acid in the first half of the year was about 4.
    07 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 14.
    38%

    .
    But the operating rate is not high, about 86.
    62%

    .
    Although some manufacturing companies continue to postpone the overhaul time of their installations due to high profits, the news of accidents in the installations continues, plus planned overhauls, resulting in a low operating rate of the industry as a whole and a production loss of approximately 600,000 tons

    .

      From the perspective of demand, there is an increase in downstream PTA demand for acetic acid
    .
    As the large-scale refining and chemical integration project is launched, a total of 8.
    4 million tons/year of PTA units will be put into operation in 2020, and a total of 8.
    2 million tons/year of PTA units will be put into operation in the first half of 2021

    .
    The current PTA demand for acetic acid has increased from 23% in 2017 to 31% at present

    .
    At the same time, the operating rate of the PTA industry in the first half of the year was relatively high, fluctuating around 80%, and the demand for acetic acid was relatively stable

    .
    In addition, after supply-side reforms in recent years, the mainstream downstream industries of acetic acid, such as vinyl acetate and chloroacetic acid, have a high degree of concentration.
    Many companies have extended industrial chains, and the demand for raw acetic acid is increasing

    .

      From the perspective of exports, the domestic acetic acid export volume in the first half of the year was about 360,000 tons, an increase of 67.
    8% year-on-year, which greatly reduced the domestic spot circulation

    .
    In mid-February, the United States suddenly encountered a cold wave, and all acetic acid plants were shut down, involving a total production capacity of about 2.
    77 million tons per year, and there was a gap of about 250,000 tons

    .
    The shortage of supply in the United States has led to a shortage of acetic acid in Europe and South America.
    A large number of sources are imported from China.
    The tight balance between domestic supply and demand has been broken, and the supply is biased towards short supply

    .
    In addition, in the first half of the year, the acetic acid equipment in the Asia-Pacific region was more concentrated in overhauls, and the supply side was also tight, pushing the price of acetic acid to a record high

    .

      However, near the middle of the year, the chemical market entered the traditional low season for demand, and the high cost of raw materials was difficult to transmit downstream.
    Some downstream factories have reduced production and shutdown due to continuous losses.
    In addition, the "July 1" celebration activities, acetate, chloroacetic acid, and glycine were added.
    The downstream is significantly affected by factors such as transportation and environmental protection, dragging the acetic acid market up and down

    .

      High shock and fall

    High shock and fall High shock and fall

      Xu Na believes that at present, the supply side is mixed with negative factors in the second half of the year
    .
    Due to the excessively high market price of acetic acid in the first half of the year, it will fall from the high level in the second half of the year.
    However, during the fall, due to the maintenance of some devices and the increase in downstream demand, the price is expected to fluctuate to a certain extent

    .

      At present, the domestic acetic acid market is weak and downward, and corporate quotations are relatively high, downstream factories just need to purchase rationally, procurement is limited, and the downstream market is obviously resistant to high prices, and the actual transaction price of acetic acid continues to decline
    .
    Under the pressure of the market, acetic acid companies have lowered their quotations to maintain shipments.
    In addition, the negative sentiment on the market is obvious.
    It is expected that the acetic acid market may continue to be weak in the later period

    .

      At the same time, in late July, Henan Longyu's 600,000-ton/year plant will gradually resume normal operation after overhaul; Guangxi Huayi’s 500,000-ton/year plant that has just started construction will continue to be exported, and the supply of acetic acid will increase, which will be negative for market prices.

    .

      However, later, Sinopec Great Wall 410,000 tons/year, Tianjin Bohua Yongli 350,000 tons/year, Yankuang 1 million tons/year, Shanghai Huayi 700,000 tons/year, Anhui Huayi 500,000 tons/year, etc.
    Overhaul plans, so there will be a certain reduction in supply

    .
    The peak season for traditional demand for superimposed "Golden Nine and Silver Ten" is approaching, and the load of acetate, chloroacetic acid, glycine and other installations will increase, and the demand for acetic acid is expected to increase

    .

      In addition, the new production capacity of PTA will be released in the first half of the year.
    In addition, the second phase of Zhejiang Yisheng New Materials will also be put into production.
    Therefore, the domestic demand for acetic acid in the second half of the year is expected to be better than that in the middle of the year

    .

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