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    Home > Coatings News > Paints and Coatings Market > Acrylic expansion climbs or faces overcapacity

    Acrylic expansion climbs or faces overcapacity

    • Last Update: 2019-04-18
    • Source: Internet
    • Author: User
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    2018, the acrylic industry expansion is at an all-time high as new installations are launched in Northeast Asia, North America and the Middle EastRising oil prices and tight supply and demand pushed the price of acrylic to a four-year high2019, the world's new production capacity of acrylic mainly from Northeast Asia, the new scale of new recordWith the lightweighting of ethylene raw materials, the growth of acrylic production capacity is no longer closely followed by ethylene, and the low-sulfur marine fuel policy will lead to reduced supply of propylene in refineriesThe acrylic industrial chain in Northeast Asia continues to expand rapidly, while the Middle East slows down, North America and Western Europe are basically stagnant, and the world acrylic industry chain will build a new balance of tradeDue to the differentiation of acrylic cost differentiation and polypropylene prices in all parts of the world, the overall profit of the world propylene industry chain increased slightly, and the business climate continuedChina has ushered in the peak expansion of acrylic capacity in recent years, with new capacity in all routes, including propane dehydrogenation (PDH) and coal olefins (CTEs) with significant increasein capacity by means of cost advantage, and the first over-equivalent consumption of propylene production capacity, which is about to face overcapacityDriven by the production of PDH and Western CTO in eastern China, the expansion rate of acrylic capacity in China is at a high level in recent yearsHowever, Sino-US trade frictions have pushed up the cost of PDH raw materials and increased project variablesDue to the improvement of refining capacity in Shandong, the volume of acrylic trading volume in the region is gradually enlarged, and the price discourse of acrylic in Shandong market is expected to be further strengthened2019, the consumption of propylene equivalent swelling increased steadily, but the growth rate continued to slow, with polypropylene, epoxy propane and propylene triloly situatium as three downstream products with faster growth, with a slight increase in the proportion of structure;world acrylic prices reached new highscapacity last year, with the world's acrylic capacity accelerating again in 2018 after a rapid expansion in 2014-2016 and a brief slowdown in 2017In 2018, Asia is rich in propylene raw materials, almost all production routes have new production capacity, mainly from China, South Korea, India, Malaysia, Vietnam, etc., the largest new scale in the worldThe process of lightweighting of ethylene raw materials has accelerated in North America, with less new capacity of propylene from the cracking unitThe Middle East is rich in light hydrocarbon resources, and the new production capacity comes mainly from naphtha lysis devices, which account for more than 50% of the region's total capacityWestern Europe is also dominated by cracked propylene, and catalytic cracking capacity has barely increased consumption, the growth rate of acrylic consumption in 2018 was higher than in the previous two years, and new consumption was at an all-time high Emerging economies are the main drivers of growth in acrylic consumption Global acrylic consumption is mainly used in the production of polypropylene, epoxy propylene, acrylic, acrylic, butyl alcohol, isopropyl and other products From the downstream product structure ratio, polypropylene is a downstream derivative of propylene, accounting for 65.7% of global acrylic consumption in 2018, an increase of 0.7 percentage points over 2017, epoxy propylene, acrylic, propylene, acrylic, and acrylic accounted for 0.1 percentage points, butine leachl accounted for a decrease of 0.2 percentage points the growth in polypropylene consumption was driven mainly by the rapid economic development of the Asia-Pacific region, which is dominated by China, as well as in many emerging economies in Central Europe and the Middle East Among them, the Asia-Pacific region is driven by domestic demand, and the Middle East is driven by plastic exports Polypropylene consumption has been growing steadily in mature economies such as North America and Western Europe, but at a relatively slower pace In terms of new consumption of polypropylene in 2018, it is 2.28 million tons in Northeast Asia, 520,000 tons in India and Pakistan, 330,000 tons in Southeast Asia and less than 200,000 tons in the rest , the price of propylene hit a four-year high in 2018, driven by crude oil prices, supply and downstream consumption 2018, rising crude oil prices, tight supply in North America and Northeast Asia, and strong global demand for polypropylene contributed to the rise in acrylic prices Only one 750,000-tonne-a-year PDH propylene plant is in production in the U.S., and acrylic consumption is growing faster than supply, resulting in tight supply in North America Northeast Asia's new production capacity to China-based, but most of the devices put into operation at the end of the year, production has not been released, but also when China's town sea refining, Fujian refining and other equipment maintenance, strong downstream demand led to a large acrylic gap China's acryloni source is more abundant
    in 2018, China's acrylic production capacity of 34.83 million tons / year, production reached 31.4 million tons, respectively, an increase of 5.5%, 9.2% over 2017 ; PDH has clearly ushered in an investment peak due to its cost advantage, with the proportion of device structure up to 18% In recent years, China's acrylic source is more abundant, refinery catalytic cracking propylene, naphtha cracking propylene, PDH, methanol olefin (MTO), CTO and other routes of the installation has been put into production In 2018, the new capacity of propylene will be 1.8 million tons/year Due to the large increase in methanol prices in the past two years, some methanol propylene (MTP) devices are in a long-term parking state, the eastern MTO device also had to reduce the operating rate, Jilin Cornell and other MTO projects delayed production No new capacity of MTO will be added from 2017 to 2018 In terms of the proportion of device structure, the proportion of PDH and CTO increased to 18% and 14% respectively, while the proportion of traditional routes of refining and naphtha decreased to about 57% at the same time, the growth rate of acrylic equivalent consumption has slowed year by year since 2015, but in 2018 the annual growth rate of about 7% is higher than GDP, in a period of rapid growth The downstream demand for propylene is mainly polypropylene, which accounts for 67% of the demand for propylene, slightly higher than the global share of 1.3 percentage points The production of new plants in non-naphtha routes such as coal chemical industry has contributed to a significant increase in domestic polypropylene production capacity, with a net increase of 1.25 million tons/year in 2018 to 24.73 million tons/year, with a production capacity of 22 million tons Demand for polypropylene growth, such as bans and food and beverage takeaways, has boosted demand for polypropylene, reaching 26.4 million tonnes in 2018, an annual increase of more than 8% Driven by downstream demand, the annual consumption of epoxy propane, acrylonitril and butsimol also maintained a high growth rate of more than 6%, which can be affected by environmental tightening, and the annual consumption of acetone and acrylacid grew slowly, at 2% to 5% need to note that Shandong ground propylene pricing voice further enhanced China East China acrylic market reference Sinopec monthly quotation, and Shandong acrylic market because of its large trading volume and frequent transactions, has become north, northwest, northeast and other regions of the benchmark price of acrylic trading, usually by Shandong propylene price plus freight pricing China's imports of propylene mainly from South Korea, Japan and Taiwan, import prices are dominated by these countries and regions Since the opening of China's crude oil import right and crude oil import right in 2015, the catalytic cracking capacity of Shandong's ground refining has been rapidly improved, and the capacity of propylene has increased with it Shandong refining 70% to 80% of the propylene external sales, with the increase in the rate of ground refining, the volume of external acrylic continued to increase, so that the Shandong market's pricing voice further enhanced the domestic acrylic supply pattern changes in 2019
    is expected to reach 41.73 million tons/ year in 2019, an increase of more than 19% over the previous year; China's acrylic industry experienced the peak of 2014-2016 expansion, 2017 after a brief decline, 2019 will usher in the recent years the new acrylic production capacity of a record high, is expected to add 5.86 million tons / year capacity Acrylic production routes continue to diversify, with PDH routes leading the way in new capacity However, the growth rate of acrylic demand is slower than the growth rate of capacity, the self-sufficiency rate will be increased again, and the domestic acrylic capacity will exceed the equivalent consumption, and will soon face the situation of overcapacity in addition to the new capacity of the PDH route, the coal olefin (CTO) route has also picked up, with new capacity in 2019 at a record level In recent years, the rise of international crude oil prices, so that China's CTO booming, especially in the western region of coal resources, has now formed in Inner Mongolia Ordos, Shaanxi Yulin, Ningxia Ningdong, Xinjiang quasi-east four Major CTO industrial base By the end of 2018, the CTO plant has a capacity of about 4.8 million tons/year In 2019, with the production of 3 projects of Kutai Energy, Zhong'an United Coal Chemical and Ningxia Baofeng, the new propylene production capacity will be 900,000 tons/year the rise in crude oil prices and abundant propane resources, resulting in the cost re-arrangement of propylene routes, and the advantages of coal-based olefins significantly enhanced 2018, the cost of naphtha route has been much higher than the CTO, the difference between the two about 1800 yuan / ton of olefins As crude oil prices and methanol prices rise, the cost of each route is expected to be rearranged in 2019: Western CTO East PDH East Naphrine Split East MTO, The cost difference between naphtha and CTO will exceed 2000 yuan/tonne olefin at the same time, the new acrylic capacity of emerging refining enterprises can not be ignored Under the stimulus of a series of reform dividends, such as the liberalization of crude oil imports and the delegation of approval authority, the emerging refining enterprises have opened up the capital channel through the capital operation of bond financing and equity financing obtained by banks In 2019, China ushered in Zhejiang Petrochemical, Baolai Group and other large-scale refining integration projects into production, a total of 1.9 million tons / year propylene production capacity is expected to be released centrally but it is important to note that domestic acrylic demand growth continues to be lower than supply Acrylic equivalent consumption grew steadily in 2019, but continued to slow to 5% downstream development dynamics polypropylene: express, takeaway and automotive lightweighting is still the driving force of demand
    2018 is the peak year of polypropylene expansion, polypropylene production capacity of 24.73 million tons / year, new production capacity of 1.25 million tons / year, production of 22 million tons Polypropylene's new apparent consumption is at an all-time high, with an annual growth rate of 8.7%, with a full-year growth rate of about 26.4 million tons compared with developed countries, China's polypropylene consumption, low-end products accounted for a relatively high, such as woven products, general injection molding products and general packaging, especially the proportion of woven products significantly higher than the European and American countries and regions In the past 3 years, domestic polypropylene production technology in the field of special materials has been a greater development, research and development of a series of polytube materials, medical materials, etc., reducing the dependence on some high-end imported materials the main factors driving the growth of polypropylene consumption are threefold: the size of the food and beverage takeaway market continued to grow at an annual growth rate of 33% in 2018; the pace of polypropylene expansion accelerated further in 2019, there is still a large gap Polypropylene production capacity will increase by 4.85 million tons/year to 29.58 million tons/year in 2019, mainly from Zhejiang Petrochemical (900,000 tons/year), Liaoning Baolai (600,000 tons/year) and other enterprises, but most of the project production in the fourth quarter, the contribution to this year's supply is limited epoxy propane: after rapid expansion, the supply body increased
    the domestic new epoxy propane production capacity in 2018 was 500,000 tons/year to 3.91 million tons/year, but the actual new production supply was only 175,000 tons to 2.9 million tons The apparent consumption of epoxy propane was 3.16 million tons, an increase of about 7% over the previous year, and a slight increase over the previous year the expansion of the epoxy propane industry will slow in 2019 Due to the high price of ethylene oxide in China attracted a lot of investment, and with the promotion of domestic propylene-based epoxy propane technology, many domestic private enterprises are also actively expanding the production capacity of epoxy propane The increase of supply main body will play an important role in calming the price fluctuations of the domestic epoxy propane market downstream consumption is expected to show few bright spots The domestic polyether industry as a whole is in a situation of surplus, especially the excess pressure in the soft foam polyether market However, the high price of domestic epoxy propane, domestic polyether competitiveness is weak, it is difficult to compete with the United States, Thailand and other polyether products, resulting in domestic polyether difficult to open export markets At present, the overall operating rate of the domestic polyether industry is only 40% to 50%, the profit margin is 3% to 4%, it is expected that in the next year or two it will be difficult to change the status quo However, in recent years, the rise of domestic fresh cold chain logistics for hard bubble polyether provides many opportunities and new markets expects domestic polyether consumption to grow by 6% to 7% annually in 2019, and the supply and demand of the epoxy propane market will gradually reach equilibrium and the market price will gradually weaken Acrylonitril: production capacity expansion in 2018, domestic acrylonitrile production capacity unchanged, maintenance increased, imports increased by more than 30% over the previous year, the annual growth rate of apparent consumption of 7.2% However, due to the centralization of domestic installation maintenance, the production of acrylonitrile only increased to 1.85 million tons, an increase of 0.6% over the previous year The average domestic equipment load rose to 91%, an increase of 1 percentage point over the previous year the expansion of acrylonitril production capacity will re-emerge in 2019, but the tightening of environmental policies will affect some supply The average load of the domestic acrylonitril device is expected to decrease slightly compared to 2018, but with the release of new production capacity, the domestic acrylonitrile supply is expected to shift from tight to abundant Full-year production is expected to be about 1.96 million tonnes, an increase of 6% over 2018 strong growth in industries such as carbon fiber and methamphetamine (MMA) boosted demand for acrylation, and the consumption of acrylamide used in oil-driven oil, coupled with rising crude oil prices, demand for acrylonitrils is expected to reach 2.41 million tons in 2019, with an annual growth rate of about 7%
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