Affected by the continued weakness of the spot market, methanol futures are now simultaneously weakening

Since June, the domestic methanol market has continued to decline sharply due to the overhaul of the Northwest Methanol-to-Olefin Plant and methanol take-out
.

Among them, shipments in northern Shaanxi and Inner Mongolia dropped from 2350-2400 yuan/ton to 1900-1950 yuan/ton, a drop of over 19%; Shandong region received goods from 2550-2600 yuan/ton to 2170-2200 yuan/ton.

The imbalance between supply and demand in Northwest China affects the whole country

This round of domestic methanol market decline is the main force in the Northwest market, which originated from the maintenance of Shenhua Ningxia Coal Methanol-to-Olefin Unit in mid-May, and the methanol unit was not overhauled and methanol was sold out
.

At the same time, Ningxia Baofeng also reduced the burden of exporting methanol due to the short-term maintenance of the olefin plant, which broke the balance between supply and demand in the Mainland

The spring inspections of traditional methanol companies in Ningxia have ended, and they can only find another way to sell methanol
.

Qinghai and Xinjiang increased their sales to Sichuan, Chongqing and Guanzhong, which was transmitted to central China, causing prices in Hubei, Hunan and Henan to gradually drop

After the surrounding markets fell sharply, arbitrage in Henan, Shanxi, Shandong and Jiangsu and Zhejiang markets began.

After the continuous supply of goods to the ports and surrounding markets, the shortage of goods in East China eased and prices fell

The overhaul of the methanol-to-olefin plant in Ningxia has gradually ended, and the export of methanol will be gradually stopped this week.

The inland market will return to the balance of supply and demand, and the price drop is expected to slow or end

The market in the off-season of consumption shows weak supply and demand

In the rainy season, traditional downstream demand has gradually weakened, and the expected seasonal decline in the start of formaldehyde and dimethyl ether.

After the recent overhaul of several units of acetic acid, the start has also declined.
MTBE has also shown signs of weakening due to the decline in the start load of the refinery

As far as methanol-to-olefins is concerned, the overhaul has not yet ended.

Most of the methanol-to-olefins plants in coastal areas were overhauled at the end of last year and early this year, and the probability of overhaul before the end of the year is small

In terms of methanol, the supply in July is also expected to decrease.

It is currently reported that 9 sets of methanol plants with a total capacity of 5.

Affected by the continued weakness of the spot market, domestic methanol futures fell, and the current market outlook is now declining simultaneously
.

In summary, due to the recent maintenance of the methanol-to-olefins plant in the Mainland, the market weakness caused by the export of methanol will come to an end this week.
However, the traditional downstream off-season and the maintenance of the methanol plant will cause the subsequent market to show a weak supply and demand situation.
This is currently expected The situation will ease around mid-July
.
The current simultaneous decline in the methanol market is expected to have a respite from the stabilization of supply and demand in the Mainland, but the short-term still does not have a sharp rise or maintains oscillations.
The market outlook still needs to pay attention to the mismatch of supply and demand in the Mainland market
.
(Zhaojin Futures)

Transfer from: Chemical Network