Affected by the negative macro aspect copper prices fell more last week

Domestically, a number of macro indicators fell in September, with the growth rate of industries above designated size falling by 2.
2 percentage points from the previous month; the year-on-year growth rate of fixed asset investment from January to September fell by 1.
6 percentage points
compared with January to August.
From the data point of view, it still takes time
for special bonds to drive infrastructure construction.
The National Development and Reform Commission issued documents overnight to intervene in controlling coal-related prices, and at the same time once again called for the work
of ensuring the supply and price of bulk commodities.
Affected by this, thermal coal fell for three consecutive days, and at the same time, sentiment fermented to the overall commodity, which had a certain impact
on the overall price.

On the supply side, during the week, Peruvian communities said they failed to reach an agreement with the government to block the Las Bambas mining road indefinitely and affect all vehicles
passing through the road.
At the same time, domestic inland transportation, especially the important ports of the three continents in the northwest region, have been disrupted by the epidemic to varying degrees, resulting in the accumulation of some copper concentrate at the port, which is difficult to alleviate in the short term, which has brought certain pressure to the supply of raw materials for smelters in the northwest region of China.

The power rationing policy continues to affect it, and the Jiangxi Provincial Development and Reform Commission issued an emergency notice, including all high-energy-consuming enterprises such as steel, building materials, nonferrous metals, and chemicals of 315 kVA and above in the rotation stop plan
.
At present, the total copper smelting capacity in Jiangxi is 1.
26 million tons/year, ranking second in the country, accounting for 10.
3% of the country's
total production capacity.
The Bureau of Statistics released the import data of electrolytic copper in September, which increased compared with the previous month, but the cumulative growth rate declined, and the overall import situation was not optimistic
.

On the consumer side, affected by limited electricity, the overall operating rate of copper foil enterprises in September was 86.
77%, down 9.
15 percentage points
from the previous month.
Weekly data, this week's copper rod operating rate of 62.
66%, down 2.
31% month-on-month, with the continuous rise of copper prices in the previous period, the current refined scrap price spread continues to be above the reasonable price difference, scrap copper substitution appeared, but from the scrap September import data, the month-on-month increase, but still less than expected
.
With the implementation of Malaysia's copper scrap import policy on October 31, it is expected that subsequent scrap copper imports will continue to come under pressure
.

In terms of stocks, the LME destocked 19,850 tonnes this week to 161,600 tonnes and SHFE accumulated 1,097 tonnes to 11,458 tonnes
.
The social treasury destocked from 14,400 tons to 94,700 tons
.
Stocks in the bonded zone decreased by 08,300 tons to 237,200 tons
.

On the whole, the macro energy crisis seems to have turned around, which is reflected in the market in the short term, but whether the current situation can be improved needs continued attention
.
Following Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's speech on Friday, the November FOMC announced that Taper may be a foregone conclusion, and the macro side began to turn bearish
on copper prices.
Limiting power factors, both supply and demand are affected
to varying degrees.
However, under the current low global inventory level, the weekly inventory data is still in a destocking state, and there is no inflection point
.
Until macro factors have not yet landed, the neutral view
is maintained for the time being.