After the holiday, the natural rubber market may rise first and then decline

Global rubber production is in a downward trend, and the lowest production period in March and April is usually the lowest period
.
China, Vietnam, and northern Thailand are in the suspension period, and southern Thailand is approaching the end of February
.
At present, raw material prices continue to rise, and the purchase price of Thai glue has risen to 65.
5 baht/kg, an increase of about 20 baht/kg from the average value of the past five years, and the cost support continues to strengthen.

As of Friday, the inventory of Shanghai rubber futures warehouse receipts was about 160,000 tons, and it was the lowest level
in the same period in 15 years.
The recent surge in freight rates in Thailand has ignited market concerns about future domestic imports, and Thailand's natural rubber exports hit a record low in January, which stimulated No.
20 standard rubber even more
.
It is not ruled out that the price of RU05 contracts may rise sharply before the May limit
.
However, the high premium of rubber futures poses a potential suppression on futures prices, and it is also necessary to prevent the possibility
of giving up and selling after the sharp rise in futures prices.

At present, the atmosphere of macro long commodities is warm, the fundamentals of the rubber market have turned to a more pattern, the supply side is tight due to stoppage, and the demand side is expected to recover
steadily in the future market.
It is expected that the Shanghai Rubber 2105 contract is expected to maintain a strong oscillation pattern
.
Although the supply of natural rubber tightened weaker than expected, inventories fell slightly month-on-month, but demand was relatively weak before and after the holiday, coupled with the epidemic in China during the Spring Festival, the slow recovery of the European and American markets, etc.
, so that there is uncertainty in the direction of the long-short game after the holiday.