China Paint Network
News: In just six months, the property market has experienced three policy boosts, from the end of 2014 to date, from the release of loans to the central bank cut interest rates, to the 2015 two sessions of the government work report to support residents to improve the demand for housing - the intensity and intensity of the introduction of policies, far exceeding market expectations.
the 2015 government's report on the housing market is thought to be close to the most relaxed 2009 because there have been no mention of support for improved demand since 2009-2014. Reading the policy language of China's property market can better allow investors to judge where the policies that will be introduced in the future will lead to the property market.
from the real estate in the annual government work report, you can also see the course of industry development. Since real estate first appeared in the government's work report in 2001, real estate policy has been from the initial "cultivation", to the subsequent "encouragement", "reform", to "high vigilance", "strict regulation", until 2014 proposed "classification control", in 2015 put forward "support" and "promotion".
2014, the central government put forward the guiding ideology of "classification control" of real estate, suggesting that cities with high inventories could decide for themselves whether to relax regulation or not. Sure enough, in the following months, the second- and third-tier city local governments in accordance with the actual situation in the local one after another to liberalize the purchase limit, and the first-tier city although still insist on the purchase limit is not loose, but the loan restrictions are not untied for buyers to buy one sell one improved buyers are not without benefits. However, last year, although the local government spared no effort in the rescue of the market, around the lifting of restrictions on purchases, tax subsidies and other aspects of the big article, but the effect is not obvious. Up to now, inventory in major cities across the country is still hovering at a high level.
2015 session, although only a few of the real estate sections in Premier Li Keqiang's Government Work Report are expected, it is not difficult to get a glimpse of the government's intention to support the real estate market. In this report, related to the real estate sector, including "stabilizing housing consumption," "increasing the intensity of urban shantytowns and urban and rural dangerous housing reform," "acquiring the stock of housing reform and security housing," "promoting the securitization of credit assets," "housing provident fund reform," "new land reform," "the implementation of the mega-town power expansion pilot" and other seven key words.
under the general tone of stabilizing housing consumption, adhere to the classification guidance policy, support residents' autonomy and improve their demand, among which, the reform of provident fund should fall into the category of supporting residents' independent needs. According to media reports, Wang Yulin, deputy director of the Policy Research Center of the Ministry of Housing and Construction, said, "Usually after the two sessions, the relevant ministries to implement the policy." It is expected that the relevant ministries will be implemented in the next step to make corresponding adjustments to the existing policies, including reducing the down payment ratio of second-home loans to 50 percent, lowering the interest rate on second-home loans, and redefining the need for improvement. Pan Gongsheng, deputy governor of the central bank, also responded publicly during the two sessions, and the central bank is already making late-stage statistics on whether credit in the real estate market, such as the need to relax, and assessing the impact.
from last year's approach, it is likely that the inventory pressure of the third- and fourth-tier city local governments will further introduce tilt policy to inventory as soon as possible. From the product structure point of view, for low- and medium-end self-contained products, in addition to the use of provident fund loan adjustment, credit adjustment, there may also be tax adjustments. For high-end improved products, there is no obvious policy orientation, but according to the judgment of the real estate industry, it is likely to be through the transaction of tax increases (such as Taiwan's luxury tax is 15%, Singapore overseas buyers property purchase tax is 18%), to replace the market mechanism of the original administrative restrictions, for example, the first-tier city purchase restrictions "open a window", may start with high-end improved products.
As for the promotion of securitization of credit assets, it is the first time seen in the central government's government work report, although it is not related to real estate, but its promotion can solve the bank's long-term, low-yielding assets, to solve the current balance sheet of the problem of maturity misalisation, such as the first home mortgage if securitized, can solve the problem that banks do not want to lend, but according to policy and have to lend.
"increasing the intensity of urban shantytowns and urban and rural dangerous housing reform", "new land reform", "the implementation of the mega-town power expansion pilot" is related to the new urbanization category. "Acquisition of the stock of housing reform to protect housing", can solve the woes of high inventory in some cities, can also accelerate urbanization.
Under the key words of "new land reform" of the two sessions in 2015, the short mention of "carefully and steadily carrying out the pilot reform of the rural land system" in last year's government work report has expanded a lot, including: doing a good job in the registration and certification of land rights, prudently carrying out rural land expropriation, collective construction land into the market, homestead system, collective property rights system and other reform pilot. In addition, there are "expanding the comprehensive pilot of new urbanization, implementing the pilot of the expansion of power in mega-towns, and upgrading the industrial and population carrying capacity of prefecture-level cities, county towns and central towns", all of which are clear roads for new urbanization.
the new land reform brought not only rural collective land and homesteads into the market, but the government hopes to use such measures to promote the rise of satellite cities, "convenient for farmers near urbanization." And these town-level administrative areas will therefore get more tilt in policies, land and project arrangements, industrial policies, etc. will be more conducive to development and investment, especially to change the current town-level landless indicators available.
It can be said that the stock of housing reform to protect housing, equivalent to "the government to help developers to inventory", so that the third and fourth-tier cities to digest the crisis of high inventory, while the new land reform let small satellite cities take a long-term view, access to industrial upgrading opportunities to enhance the local population's consumption power, improve the status quo of net outflow of the population.
in addition, Premier Li Keqiang said at the press conference that "foreigners are welcome to buy a house in China", which shows that in addition to the first-tier city restrictions may be loosened, but also may be fully open to foreign buyers.
summary, the property market policy language in 2015 is to stabilize reasonable housing consumption, including home-owning and improving demand, through the policy adjustment of credit and classification regulation, and to resolve the risk of real estate collapse in third- and fourth-tier cities through various measures.
According to this outlook, the 2015 real estate policy warm wind will continue to blow down, in the second and third quarters of 2014 local governments have rescued the market, September 30, "central four" to relax the mortgage, November 2014 to date there has been a cut, two interest rate cuts, the two sessions should be followed by the relevant ministries such as supporting second-home loans, lower taxes and other small profit policies, local governments each out of their rescue market scene. (Southern Metropolis Daily)