Aggregate MDI market high consolidation

The "Golden Nine" in the polymerized MDI market is of high quality, and the mainstream negotiated price is between 23,800 and 24,000 yuan (ton price, the same below), which is increased by about 4,000 yuan from the end of August

Looking at the market outlook, supply continues to be tight and cost support is still there, but downstream demand is limited.

Supply remains tight

Pan Jinsong, a professor-level senior engineer at the Shandong Institute of Industry and Information Technology, said that after returning from the National Day, the main supplier factories have raised their prices, but the increase is not strong, so they are more conservative and stable

From the perspective of supply, the overall operating rate of polymer MDI is relatively stable

"There is news that Shanghai Lianheng Phase I MDI mother liquor plant will restart around October 20, and Shanghai Huntsman will restart its shutdown and maintenance plant in early October in mid-to-late October

However, the export of polymeric MDI remained strong, which relieved the pressure of supply and marketing in the domestic market

According to industry insiders, the current strong willingness of aggregate MDI manufacturers to control goods, coupled with strong exports, is expected to be difficult for short-term oversupply, and the market may consolidate at a high level

　　Cost support is still there

　　From the perspective of raw material aniline, the recent market has been deducing an overall upward trend, supporting the cost of polymerized MDI

　　After the National Day, Nanhua’s 100,000-ton/year and Jilin Cornell’s 180,000-ton/year aniline plants restarted; Shanxi Tianji’s plant load was reduced due to raw material transportation problems; Yantai Wanhua’s plant also reduced its load to reduce external goods; Jiangsu Yangnong Plant increased its load to 60%; Dongying Jinling Plant reduced its load to about 70% due to power curtailment

　　Looking at the demand side, the demand for downstream auxiliaries for terminal tires is good, and antioxidants are also actively following up with the raw material aniline, and the overall cost transmission of the industry chain is good

　　Wang Quanping, chief engineer of Shandong Kenli Petrochemical Group, said that the supply of raw materials such as aniline and cyclohexylamine is tight, and under the strong support of the cost side, accelerator companies are reluctant to sell, and the overall market has a strong atmosphere

　　Demand brings drag

　　Although the supply side and the cost side are positive, the downstream demand for polymeric MDI is "warm and cold".

　　From the perspective of downstream rigid foam polyethers, the price increase of raw material propylene oxide supports the active construction consumption in the north during the peak season, and the fundamental support is slightly better, and the focus of market trading has shifted upward

　　In terms of downstream operating rate, the operating rate of the rigid foam polyether industry has risen slightly from before the National Day, and is currently operating at around 54%

　　“Although the external wall insulation and pipeline industries in the north are still in good consumption, the sheet, solar, and home appliances industries are operating stably, supporting the basic demand for rigid foam polyether

　　In addition, the year-on-year decline in automobile production and sales has expanded since August