Aggregate MDI still has room to fall

In July, the domestic polymer MDI price rose first and then fluctuated down.
The market continued to weaken in August.
The current negotiation price of Wanhua Huo is at 17,800 yuan (ton price, the same below), and the negotiation price of Shanghai Goods Aggregation is between 17,300 and 17,400 yuan.

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Market downturn

　The market is sluggishThe　market is sluggish

Entering August, the trend of the aggregate MDI market in all regions of the country was consistent, with fluctuations and declines
.

The guidance prices of some factories have been lowered, and mainstream distributors are actively discussing shipments.
Low prices are frequently seen, and there is no boosting news on both sides of the supply and demand

From the perspective of domestic supply, the Ruian plant will shut down for maintenance on August 1, which is expected to last for 25-30 days; the 1.

1 million tons/year MDI plant in Wanhua Chemical Yantai Industrial Park will be shut down for maintenance on July 10, and the maintenance will last about 25 days

From a foreign perspective, the European Huntsman MDI device is now back to normal operation; the US Covestro MDI device has been relieved of force majeure; Japan’s Tosoh’s 200,000 tons/year plant has an overhaul plan around September; Wanhua Hungary Baoste’s 300,000 yuan The ton/year MDI device is scheduled to be overhauled in the third quarter
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"At present, factories have different attitudes towards the market outlook, and they are quite confused
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If manufacturers do not control the price of goods, it is expected that there is still room for the price of aggregate MDI to fall

Weak cost support

　Weak　cost supportWeak cost support

From the perspective of upstream pure benzene, in August, the overall pure benzene market showed a downward trend, and it is difficult to bring cost support to the polymer MDI market
.

At present, the price of pure benzene in the East China market has dropped by 250 to 300 yuan compared with the end of July, and the price in the North China market has dropped by about 500 yuan
.

Crude oil and external disks are simultaneously falling, downstream styrene fluctuates frequently, and downstream equipment repairs are concentrated.

Wang Quanping, chief engineer of Shandong Kenli Petrochemical Group, said that downstream companies have suffered long-term losses, operating rates have continued to decline, and their willingness to purchase pure benzene has decreased
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With the negative effects of severe public health events and the sharp drop in crude oil during the cycle, the early profits of pure benzene fled, which led to the rapid decline in prices

"After the continuous decline in pure benzene, the current production profits of major downstream products have turned from negative to positive
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However, August is the traditional downstream off-season, and subsequent downstream expansion projects are mostly delayed.

In addition, all regions are under the influence of public health incidents, and regional logistics and transportation are restricted.
Crude oil is still expected to fall slightly.
It is expected that the short-term pure benzene market will continue to be weak and fluctuating
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　　Demand is in the off-season

　Demand is in the off-season　Demand is in the off-season

　　The downstream of polymeric MDI is in the off-season, and its effect on the lifting of raw materials is weakened.
This is one of the reasons why polymeric MDI is not optimistic in the short term
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　　From the perspective of the terminal automobile industry, according to the statistics of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, China’s automobile production and sales reached 1.
943 million and 2.
015 million in June, down 4.
8% and 5.
3% month-on-month and 16.
5% and 12.
4% year-on-year.
Automobile production and sales continued After May, it continued to fall significantly
.

Analyzing the reasons for the decline in automobile production and sales, passenger cars are mainly due to insufficient supply of chips, and commercial vehicles are related to the switch of emission standards
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　　According to industry insiders, the problem of chip shortage is difficult to solve in the short term.
At present, the impact on passenger car sales in the second and third quarters is relatively large, and it will be alleviated in the fourth quarter of this year
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　　From the perspective of another terminal refrigerator industry, the output of refrigerators in June was 7.
425 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 16.
3%
.
The price of raw materials continues to be high, and the lingering prestige brought by the high cost is still there, which also forms a certain negative feedback on the market demand
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　　"The market for rigid foam polyether, a downstream product of polymeric MDI, rose slightly, but the transaction weakened day by day, and due to the off-season, the downstream of the rigid foam industry tended to hold money and wait and see, and enter the market cautiously
.
In addition, concerns about the epidemic have increased, and logistics and transportation in some regions have been restricted.
It may be postponed and the activity of the market will be reduced.
It is expected that the market outlook for rigid foam polyether will be difficult to maintain, or the
adjustment will be the main focus, which will not provide strong support for polymer MDI .
" Pan Jinsong said
.