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Affected by the five-department interview with black, copper, aluminum and other key enterprises on the weekend, the aluminum market opened sharply, and the intraday decline once expanded to 4.
3%, and then maintained weak operation, and the night session was boosted, but the daily decline was still not
repaired.
The price of the main contract of Shanghai aluminum continued to adjust yesterday night, the US dollar index consolidated at a low level, and Lun aluminum is now running at 2390 US dollars / ton
.
The dry period in Yunnan requires a 40% reduction in electrolytic aluminum load, which lasts at least until the end of the month
.
In the industry, on May 24, the domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 985,000 tons, down 33,000 tons
from the previous value.
As of early April, the annual operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum in China was 39.
44 million tons, the effective scale was 43.
59 million tons/year, and the operating rate of electrolytic aluminum enterprises was 90.
5%.
In terms of raw materials, from the perspective of cost, alumina cost support offset the news of the resumption of production in the north, the price is still tepid, electrolytic aluminum profit is more than 4,000 yuan / ton, it is expected that the increase in the supply of electrolytic aluminum in April is limited, the impact of concentrated production reduction and maintenance in Inner Mongolia is visible, the scale of new imports is subject to the impact of shipping schedules, etc.
, and the overall supply scale is not expected
.
On the demand side, terminal automobile consumption due to the intensification of chip supply problems, limiting the demand of the automotive sector, the profits of the traditional casting alloy industry chain have also been greatly compressed, and domestic electrolytic aluminum has maintained a slight destocking trend, but the destocking rate may be lower than the same period of
previous years.
On the whole, carbon neutrality affects the supply expectation to continue, consumption is expected to be better, and the destocking cycle is in the
cycle.
It is recommended to wait and see for the time being, pay attention to the mid-line dip layout long opportunities, and options are temporarily wait-and-see
.
