Aluminum prices are mainly volatile, and market sentiment is relatively cautious

Overseas, the recent rise in natural gas and electricity prices in Europe requires attention to the production of overseas refineries, which is expected to be difficult to resume in the short term, and if the energy problem continues to ferment, there is a possibility
of production reduction and expansion.
Domestic fundamentals maintain a pattern
of strong supply and weak demand.

On the supply side, the resumption of production in Yunnan and Guangxi has slowed down slightly, the new production capacity in Gansu has continued to be released, and individual aluminum plants in Sichuan have reduced their load production due to insufficient power, but they have not affected output
for the time being.
Electrolytic aluminum supply is expected to remain high
.

In terms of demand, due to the epidemic, consumption off-season and other factors, the overall order performance of downstream processing enterprises is not good
.
In terms of inventory, the social inventory of aluminum ingots has accumulated slightly, and attention is paid to the subsequent inventory changes
.

In terms of price, although the marginal cost supports the aluminum price below, the fundamentals of strong supply and weak demand are difficult to promote the continuous rebound of the plate, and it is recommended that short-term neutral treatment is the mainstay, and it is necessary to pay attention to the impact
of macro aspects on market sentiment.

Overall, the macro atmosphere is bearish, and the current cost support of aluminum prices is relatively resistant, but the increasingly prominent supply-side pressure and downstream consumption that still needs to be repaired have suppressed aluminum prices to a certain extent, and aluminum prices are expected to run
empty.