Aluminum prices are still supported waiting for demand to change

Shanghai aluminum plummeted overnight, down as much as 3.
52%, on the one hand, the peak season demand is not certified, it is expected that today's release of inventory data will return to the accumulation, affecting the market's demand expectations; On the other hand, the recent increase in macro volatility, the rebound of the epidemic in Europe and the pressure on US stocks have led to the strengthening of the US dollar, putting pressure on non-ferrous metal prices
.

From the perspective of terminal demand, real estate completion picked up again in August, while automobiles and home appliances continued to maintain an improving pace, but the growth rate narrowed slightly in the month, although the current peak season is slightly weak, but there are still expectations
for demand after the November holiday.

From the perspective of processing, the operating rate of leading enterprises rebounded this week, driven by the automotive, electronics and packaging fields, new orders in plate, strip, foil and alloys improved, while profiles and cables have not improved, waiting for the verification
of time.

On the supply side, Yunnan VAST officially put into production last week, and the production capacity will begin to increase in the third quarter, and the supply pressure will continue to increase
.
Although the destocking is long overdue, the effect on the market is still more obvious
.
However, affected by the continuous increase in electrolytic aluminum production capacity, the postponement of consumption recovery has made the factors that were previously very favorable to aluminum prices have converged, and time acts on space, of course, based on the fact of low inventory, aluminum prices are still supported, continue to maintain a wait-and-see judgment, waiting for demand changes
.