Aluminum prices consolidated at a high level last week, paying attention to the later destocking

Abroad, Russia denied that significant progress had been made in negotiations, crude oil prices soared again, and market worries about supply caused by the war resumed
.
Over the weekend, Australia announced a ban on bauxite and alumina exports, according to the United Nations Commodity Trade Statistics database, Russia has not imported bauxite to Australia for 20 years, importing about 1.
41 million
tons of alumina.
According to Rusal's 20-year electrolytic aluminum production estimates, the sanctions may cause a shortage
of RUSAL's raw materials.

Domestically, the start of the peak season in the spot market may have appeared, and policy trends have improved demand expectations
.
The data shows that the export of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods accelerated last week and was higher than the same period
of previous years.
Even if affected by the epidemic, under the stimulation of low aluminum prices, aluminum ingots and aluminum rods still maintain destocking, and the weekly destocking of aluminum ingots has increased significantly
.
However, the impact of the pandemic on transport still requires continued attention
.
In addition, the content of the meeting of the Financial Committee of the State Council stabilized market sentiment, stabilized the tone of loose monetary and fiscal policies throughout the year, and the Ministry of Finance said that there are no conditions for expanding pilot cities for real estate tax reform this year, which also enhanced the market's confidence
in a soft landing of real estate.
The "policy bottom" has appeared, and it is expected that the demand for aluminum in the construction and real estate sector will not collapse, and driven by infrastructure, new energy vehicles and other sectors, electrolytic aluminum demand can still be optimistic
.

In terms of inventory, exchange inventories and LME inventories were destocked from 40,700 tons to 715,200 tons during the week, and 14,500 tons to 333,800 tons
in Shanghai aluminum during the week.
In terms of social inventory, the social warehouse of aluminum ingots continued to destock by 53,000 tons to 1.
089 million tons during the week; aluminum rods took the lead in entering the rhythm of accelerated destocking during the week, and the inflection point of destocking was advanced, and the overall destocking was 34,000 tons to 208,500 tons
.

At present, after the promotion effect of financial forces, aluminum prices return to their own fundamentals, strong fundamentals and excellent supply and demand will be the core elements
to promote aluminum prices.
At present, aluminum prices climbed from 21500 to around 23000, observing the performance near the gap in the early stage, if the destocking is strong, the aluminum price still has upward momentum, if the inventory is as expected, the price is expected to fluctuate
high.