Aluminum prices continue to fluctuate and the increase has converged

On the macro front, the US non-farm payrolls data was unsatisfactory, less than market expectations, and metals recovered some of the lost ground; The global economy is still in the recovery stage, demand is strong, while monetary policy is in the swing stage, tightening expectations are gradually increasing, and the range of two-way fluctuations in metals has increased; Yunnan's power curtailment and production cuts have aggravated the supply shortage, but large-scale storage dumping may ease the tight supply situation, and the recent rumors of storage dumping, while the pressure of regulatory policies has not abated, and the market sentiment is sluggish, it is recommended to wait and see for the guidance of the news of the storage dump.

In terms of fundamentals, on the 3rd, the inventory reported 954,000 tons, down 0.
8 from last Thursday; during the same period, the steel union statistics aluminum rod inventory was 98,500 tons, down 06,000 tons from last Thursday; Yunnan's production reduction scale continued to expand, and the production capacity is expected to regress to the level of October last year, and the medium and long-term supply was suppressed; the rumors of large-scale storage were fermented
.

Recently, foreign media disclosed that the Fed plans to discuss the possibility of tightening loose monetary policy and large-scale asset purchases, because with the effectiveness of a new round of control of the epidemic in Europe and the United States, the market speculates that the Fed will consider reducing the asset purchase program in the context of inflation exceeding expectations, coupled with China's official and regulatory clear many times shouting the risk of commodity material price increases, short-term copper and aluminum and other non-ferrous metals with a large cumulative increase have a pullback, but in the environment of increased volatility in the bulk raw material market and greater flexibility in policy implementation, it is expected that nonferrous metals will show a trend of external strength and internal weakness in the short term
。 In terms of the overall trend, under the global industrial economy with the accelerated recovery of the epidemic control and new energy support policies such as carbon peak and carbon neutrality, the short-term shock of copper and aluminum and other nonferrous metals is expected to remain strong
after digesting the previous increase.