Aluminum prices continue to run under pressure and pay attention to the inflection point of the epidemic

In terms of the epidemic, on May 10, Shanghai added 228 local confirmed cases of new coronary pneumonia and 1,259 local asymptomatic infections, and the social aspects of 8 districts and some streets and towns in Pudong have been basically cleared
.
With the further achievements of Shanghai's epidemic prevention and control, some of the main bears began to profit after Shanghai aluminum hit a new low since New Year's Day, driving aluminum prices to stop falling and rebound, and spot quotations actively rose by more than
500 yuan.
According to customs data in April, the export volume of unwrought aluminum was about 596,900 tons, an increase of 0.
42% month-on-month and 36.
49% year-on-year, and the export volume of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products from January to April 2022 was 2.
2252 million tons, an increase of 29.
2%
from January to April last year.

In terms of inventory, the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum decreased slightly month-on-month, and overseas inventory fell to about 550,000 tons, which is at a historical low
.
As of May 9, domestic aluminum ingot stocks were 1.
03 million tons, down 03,000 tons
from the previous week.
As of May 11, LME aluminum stocks fell by 0.
635 million tons from the previous session to 553,900 tons
.

From the supply side, SMM statistics maintained the cost of electrolytic aluminum at 17320 yuan / ton in April, the current profit still has space, and the short-term aluminum plant will maintain the original production increase plan; On the demand side, the scale of resumption of work and production after the epidemic has rebounded, and market confidence has increased
.
In terms of price, it is expected that short-term aluminum prices will maintain a volatile trend, and domestic electrolytic aluminum prices are still a repairing rebound after a continuous decline, and the real reversal also requires confidence stability under the epidemic, especially the signal of strong recovery in terminal demand links such as real estate and automobiles
.

Under the background of the current macro sentiment without a clear improvement, most of the industrial product transactions are mainly suppressing profit margins, and it is recommended to pay attention to the average cost support
of industries around 19,000.
It is expected to operate in the range of 19,000-21,000 next week, and aluminum prices are expected to continue to operate under pressure until the inflection point of the epidemic
.