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Trade Service
On Thursday morning, the main force of Shanghai aluminum opened at 12095 yuan / ton, the bears concentrated on leaving the market at the beginning of the session, aluminum prices rose rapidly, short-term bulls followed by profit-taking, aluminum prices briefly sorted out, bears continued to leave the market to avoid risk, pushing aluminum prices to break through the 10 moving average resistance, closing at 12345 yuan / ton, recording a daily high
.
At present, the tightening of spot is still the biggest factor in the upward trend of aluminum in the support period, and it is expected that short-term Shanghai aluminum will maintain a wide range of shocks, and the integer mark of 12,000 yuan / ton will show effective support, paying attention to the breakthrough ability
of the first-line pressure of 12,300 yuan / ton.
In terms of the external market, Lun aluminum opened at 1595 US dollars / ton in the morning, the trend of London aluminum during the Asian market period basically followed the domestic Shanghai aluminum, along the daily moving average trading center continued to rise, into the European trading session, Lun aluminum volume oscillation, constantly up to test the 5-day moving average, as of 16:38, Lun aluminum high touched 1606 US dollars / ton, it is expected that Lun aluminum will continue to test the 5-day moving average resistance, the evening release of the United States July 23 weekly jobless claims data
.
Pay attention to whether Lun aluminum can hold the $1600/ton mark in the evening
.
On the macro front, Germany's unemployment rate was 6.
1% in July versus 6.
1% expected and 6.
1%
in the previous month.
Eurozone Industrial Climate Index -2.
4 in July, -3.
3 expected, -2.
8
previously.
Domestically, data from the National Development and Reform Commission showed that the national railway completed 1.
58 billion tons of freight in the first half of the year, down 7.
5% year-on-year, and the decline was 1.
8 percentage points
narrower than that in the first quarter.
In terms of the market, the low level of aluminum returned to the higher level before the afternoon of
the month.
Shanghai transaction concentration is 12620-12640 yuan / ton, the premium for the month is 200-220 yuan / ton, Wuxi transaction concentration is 12610-12630 yuan / ton, Hangzhou transaction concentration is 12650-12670 yuan / ton
.
Aluminum rebounded in the month, holders of high shipment willingness positive, enthusiasm for receiving goods decreased compared with yesterday, in order to promote transactions, holders took the initiative to reduce prices, middlemen believe that this wave of rebound is short-term behavior, wait-and-see sentiment is strong, downstream enterprises only low inventory just need to receive goods, fear of heights is stronger, the overall transaction high price is suppressed
.
In summary, Shanghai aluminum is affected by surrounding metals and low inventories, but the current demand is still relatively weak, and there is no basis
for a trend rebound.
On the other hand, the supply of spot goods is still very tight, which provides good support
for Shanghai aluminum.
It is expected that Shanghai aluminum will remain volatile
in the short term.
Operationally it is recommended to wait and see
.
