Aluminum prices continued to maintain a volatile pattern and rose slightly from before the holiday

In terms of macro, at the beginning of the month, Europe and the United States concentrated on the release of September macroeconomic data, manufacturing, Europe and the United States have maintained a recovery trend, of which the euro area Markit manufacturing PMI final value of 53.
7, consistent with the previous value and expectations, the final value of the US ISM manufacturing PMI was 55.
4, but it fell from the previous value of 56 and was less than the expected value (56.
4), and the recovery of the US manufacturing industry slowed
down slightly 。 In terms of the labor market, the number of non-farm payrolls in the United States increased by 661,000 in September, the number of new additions was narrower than the previous month (1.
489 million) and less than the expected 875,000, but the unemployment rate continued to decline and has now fallen to 7.
9%; The unemployment rate in the euro area rose 0.
2 to 8.
1% month-on-month in August, and employment pressures remained high
.
From the latest macro data, the fundamentals of continuous economic improvement in Europe and the United States have not changed, but in the case of the rebound of the epidemic, the economic pressure is still great
.

On the industrial front, there were disruptions on the overseas supply side during the holiday season, starting with an indefinite strike at Alcoa's plant in Spain, which produced 228,000 tonnes of electrolytic aluminum in 2019
.
Later, at least 80 tanks were affected
at the National Aluminium refinery due to power supply disruptions.
The supply side has formed a certain support
for overseas aluminum prices.

Foshan aluminum: 10/9 Nanchu Foshan aluminum ingot quotation 14760-14820 yuan, the average price of 14790 yuan, up 140 yuan, up 155 yuan
for the month.
After the holiday, the supply was sufficient, the holders mainly sold at low prices, the demand performance was weak, the spot premium continued to fall, and the overall transaction was sluggish
.
The mainstream transaction price is concentrated between 14740-14800 yuan, which is -50~10 yuan
higher than the average price of Foshan in the South Reserve.

Wuxi aluminum: 10/9 Nanchu Wuxi aluminum ingot quotation 14840-14880 yuan, the average price of 14860 yuan, up 190 yuan, up 225 yuan
for the month.
Large households continue to receive goods, traders sell at high prices, circulation is relatively tight, demand is actively pursued, the market is in short supply, and the spot performance is relatively stable
.
The spot transaction price is concentrated in 14850-14890 yuan, which is -10~30 yuan
higher than the average price of Wuxi in Nanchu.

The pace of continuous growth on the domestic supply side accelerated slightly before the holiday, and with the arrival of the fourth quarter, the new production capacity put into operation in the third quarter will release the actual output, and the resumption of production under high profits will follow, and the supply pressure is gradually increasing
.
After the off-season, domestic demand is facing a situation of low peak season, but this "not strong" situation is relative to the previous high year-on-year growth rate, as far as the domestic demand situation in September, it still maintains a year-on-year high growth, and at present, from the downstream feedback, orders in October have not increased significantly month-on-month, maintaining a stable state, and it is expected to maintain year-on-year growth
.

The current focus of market trading is still on demand growth, and the degree of matching between the two is crucial
as supply growth accelerates and demand grows.
Although in the medium term, the aluminum supply and demand pattern to excess to inhibit aluminum prices, but the inventory that has fallen to the low level of the year before the holiday still supports the price strongly, once the holiday returns, consumption recovery drives the warehouse, aluminum prices are still difficult to fall, so it is expected that short-term aluminum prices will continue to maintain a volatile pattern
.