Aluminum prices fluctuated at high levels, driven by macro profits and low inventories

Fundamentally, the domestic bauxite supply is still tight, the decline in alumina prices in some areas is still expanding, the loss of production capacity is relatively high, and high-cost enterprises may reduce production in the later stage, and the demand for bauxite may decrease; In terms of electrolytic aluminum, overseas production reduction news is spread, and the market expects overseas production capacity reduction to about 2 million tons; There is no new news of production reduction in Yunnan and Henan after the production reduction in China, and the resumption of production and new production in other regions are less than expected, and the pressure on the supply side is slowing down
.

On the demand side, the impact of the epidemic is one and the other, last week the operating rate of aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises rose 0.
1 percentage points month-on-month, of which aluminum profiles started better, but mainly in the main production areas after the epidemic eased factory production, and the off-season arrived, the demand in the main consumption areas is still disturbed by the epidemic, the downstream receiving sentiment is not high, just demand-based, but the demand is expected
to improve in real estate.

In terms of inventory, both at home and abroad are at a low level, the recent macro favorable and low inventory to the warehouse, is the factor driving the upward trend of Shanghai aluminum, after the epidemic eases, concentrated arrival or accumulation is expected, and demand still needs to continue to observe, or limit the increase
.
The short-term light position volatility of the Shanghai aluminum AL2212 contract is mainly based on ideas, and attention should be paid to the rhythm of operation and risk control
.