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Last week, aluminum prices pulled back sharply, mainly due to the pessimistic overall market sentiment under the linkage of coal, electricity and aluminum and the continuous accumulation of aluminum ingots
.
Recently, affected by the fluctuation of electricity prices, local policies have occurred frequently, among which Jiangsu and Qinghai provinces have issued notices on suspending power cuts and canceling the implementation of orderly electricity consumption, and electrolytic aluminum enterprises affected by previous power restrictions in Qinghai may resume production
.
The Sichuan region requires the cancellation of the preferential electricity price of electrolytic aluminum and the Guizhou region requires five local electrolytic aluminum enterprises to reduce the electricity load by more than 20%, and withdraw all production capacity within 5 days, involving a total operating capacity of 1.
3 million tons, and some enterprises have stopped slotting
one after another.
Fundamentally, coal supply is still tight and after entering the heating season, the production reduction caused by power cuts in northern regions may expand, and the upcoming dry period will also increase uncertainty for hydropower security in Yunnan, Guangxi and other places, and local electrolytic aluminum enterprises may reduce production
again.
Aluminum prices have fallen sharply in recent days, while the price of raw materials such as caustic soda fluctuates greatly, the market wait-and-see sentiment is strong, and the transaction is less
.
In terms of consumption, the power rationing policy of downstream processing enterprises in Guangdong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai has been relaxed recently, but the terminal orders are general, and the start of enterprises is still weak, and it is necessary to watch out for the emergence
of negative demand feedback.
In terms of inventory, affected by sluggish consumption and dumping of reserves
, the social treasury continued to accumulate during the week.
Inventory changes, in the week of October 22, aluminum ingot social stocks increased by 70,000 tons month-on-month to 957,000 tons, and LME aluminum stocks were 1,086,600 tons, down 31,700 tons
from last week.
In terms of price, although coal prices have declined in the short term due to regulatory influences, the production cost of electrolytic aluminum is still at a high level and the supply has a trend of further tightening.
