Aluminum prices remain volatile and stable, and the rebound space is limited

In terms of spot, electrolytic aluminum destocking in East China accelerated again, driven by favorable fundamentals, aluminum prices rose last week, and spot aluminum was around 14,700 yuan / ton as of last Friday, up 180 yuan
from the previous Friday.

In terms of transactions, due to the implementation of macro risk factors, traders are actively moving goods at low prices, and the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holidays are approaching, and downstream enterprises have increased their efforts to enter the market to receive goods, and the transaction is better than the previous week
.
In South China, as of last Friday, the price of aluminum ingots in South China was 15040-15140 yuan / ton, up 160 yuan from the previous Friday; With the increase in prices, the number of shipments by cargo holders has increased, the market supply is abundant, and the downstream pre-holiday stocking has improved the market transaction, but the overall performance is still oversupplied; Under the "Golden Nine" peak season, the transaction of Guangdong aluminum rods has also improved
.

From a fundamental point of view, Fubao information analysts introduced that in terms of inventory, last week's domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory, Shanghai area 371,000 tons, Wuxi area 699,000 tons, Gongyi area 147,000 tons, Guangdong South China Sea 205,000 tons, Hangzhou area 92,000 tons, Chongqing 27,000 tons, Tianjin 57,000 tons, Linyi 25,000 tons, consumption of aluminum ingot inventory of a total of 1.
623 million tons, down 53,000 tons
from the previous week.

In terms of scrap aluminum market, recyclers have increased shipments, the market supply is abundant, the price of scrap aluminum profiles is high, and under the "Golden Nine" peak season, recycled aluminum and aluminum rod manufacturers are still enthusiastic about receiving goods; The supply of aluminum wire market is relatively tight, the price is firm, and the receiving price of some manufacturers in Henan has been adjusted to around 12600 yuan / ton, and the source of goods is selling well; The cans market has more supplies, the trading volume has increased, and the price of pure cans can be as high as 9200 yuan / ton
.

In terms of environmental protection, environmental protection efforts in Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai have gradually increased, especially some small workshops in Jiangsu have been closed and the EIA has not been approved; Henan held a comprehensive rectification meeting of environmental protection ultra-low value emissions on the 20th, and it is expected that the intensity will increase
in the later stage.

Overall, analysts expect that aluminum prices are expected to continue the rebound at the beginning of this week, but with the gradual completion of market stocking, aluminum prices may remain stable in volatility, and the overall or maintain in the fluctuation range of 14500-15000 yuan / ton, and it is expected that there is little room for rebound
.