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Aluminum prices remained volatile
last week.
Overall, the three major negatives that suppressed aluminum prices in the early stage, the margin gradually improved; Real estate policy gradually recovered, the epidemic gradually relaxed, the US CPI fell more than expected, and the market's expectation of a slowdown in the pace of interest rate hikes gradually became stronger, but in the medium term, metal prices are in the gap stage of the relay of the two variables of interest rate hikes and recessions, and after the interest rate hike suppression is eased, the market needs to gradually adapt to the high interest rate environment
.
However, electrolytic aluminum still has the suppression of the supply ceiling, and after the gradual recovery of the economy in 2023Q1, aluminum prices may stabilize and rebound, maintaining a weak shock view
until then.
On the supply side, aluminum production fell slightly; Rumors of continued production cuts in Yunnan have affected production capacity by 20%-30%, and the power problem may not be alleviated, and the possibility of continued production cuts is not ruled out in the future; The resumption of production in the remaining regions and the release of new production capacity as planned, the overall supply may continue to rise
.
European natural gas prices continue to fall, the cost pressure of electrolytic aluminum in Europe has been eased, and European electrolytic aluminum production capacity may recover
in the future.
In November, domestic electrolytic aluminum production was 3.
3363 million tons, +7.
1% year-on-year and -3%
month-on-month.
Production is expected to maintain a growth rate of 1-2% in December to about 3.
4 million tons
.
On the demand side, the number of infections has increased, and demand has weakened
in the short term.
The operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing enterprises remained weak, the operating rate of all sectors fell, the consumption in the off-season was weak, the number of domestic infections increased sharply, and the Spring Festival holiday was approaching, which had a greater impact on downstream construction and demand, and the number of enterprises on the holiday in advance increased
.
The second batch of large bases will be connected to the grid in 2023 in principle, and the demand for UHV will explode, and the inability to store and transport renewable energy determines the increase in investment demand for "large power grid" and "large power supply", stimulating future demand for electrolytic aluminum
.
In terms of inventory, last week aluminum ingot inventory began to accumulate, aluminum rod slightly accumulated, it is expected that aluminum ingots are still slightly destocked, aluminum rod social inventory of 80,000 tons, an increase of 04,500 tons from the previous week, aluminum ingot social inventory of 490,000 tons, an increase of 24,000 tons from the previous week, the year is coming, it is expected that electrolytic aluminum will start the accumulation cycle
in the next month.
On New Year's Day, the flow of people and consumption in major cities rebounded significantly, and affected by production capacity, the accumulation of stocks in this year's Spring Festival was limited, and the peak inventory after the year or the lowest in nearly five years, which will provide support for aluminum prices
.
On the whole, the current short-short and long-term pattern of Shanghai aluminum, if there is a certain decline in this price, it can be bargained
.
Pay attention to the two support levels
of 18400 and 18000 below.
