Aluminum rose strongly and market demand performed better

Macroscopic: On November 15, China, Japan and South Korea and other 15 countries signed RCEP, the regional economic cooperation agreement covers 1/3 of the world's population, the conclusion of RCEP will promote regional economic integration and coordinated development, promote regional trade freedom and global economic and trade cooperation in the context of the global economic and trade environment, China's a number of macroeconomic data recently released, strong performance will promote aluminum prices to continue to
rise.

On the supply side: China's primary aluminum (electrolytic aluminum) production in October increased by 6.
8% year-on-year to 2.
72 million tons, according to the National Bureau of Statistics; Total production from January to October was 27.
71 million mt, up 4.
4%
y/y.
Alumina production in October was 6.
020 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 14.
5%, the average daily output was 194,000 tons, an increase of 0.
9% month-on-month, and the cumulative output from January to October was 57.
163 million tons, an increase of 19.
1%
year-on-year.
According to data released by IAI, global aluminum production in September was 5.
424 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.
9%.

Supply-side smelter profits remain high, industry capacity will be further released in November, alumina industry operating rate continues to rise, and the supply side is weak
in the fourth quarter.

Cost side: The cost of alumina rose slightly to 12,903 yuan on Friday, and the profit of electrolytic aluminum production is still at a high level
.
In terms of premium discount: the domestic Yangtze River nonferrous spot premium was raised from 160 yuan / ton to 200 yuan / ton
.
The Lun aluminum discount expanded to $16.
5.

Stocks: LME stocks accumulated slightly by 2,925 tons to 1,416,700 tons yesterday, and the previous inventory accumulated 861 tons to 232,600 tons last week, and the social bank continued to decrease by 10,000 tons compared with the statistics on November 12 to 617,000 tons, and the inventory fell
for nine consecutive periods.
On the whole, the domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory destocking continues, forming a strong support
for the price.

Overall, in terms of raw materials, alumina prices fell slightly, and the profits of the electrolytic aluminum industry rose slightly, and production profits are still in a high position from a historical perspective
.
On the demand side, China's downstream automotive and infrastructure data performed strongly in October, indicating that China's economy maintained its recovery momentum and domestic market demand performed better
.
In the future, the supply side with the acceleration of the resumption of production by aluminum enterprises, the production capacity of the supply side is further released, while the downstream start remains stable, and the new production capacity in November further releases a certain suppression of the price of electrolytic aluminum, limiting the upward momentum of aluminum prices, but China's low social inventory still supports aluminum prices
to a certain extent.