Ammonium chloride: Spring is here?

The ammonium chloride market has experienced a downturn for half a year.
The pessimism of the manufacturers has not yet been relieved, and the New Year is coming.
I originally thought that the state during the Spring Festival would not be very good and the inventory would rise, but from the market in the past few days Look, it doesn't seem to be the case.
Recently, I will see such a state in the circle of friends: the sound has not been seen for a long time, and finally wait for you-the spring of ammonium chloride.
Does the ammonium chloride market really counterattack, and spring is here? ? The answer is: indeed.
? But judging from the current market, it can only be said to be a small spring.
Because it is not the whole country that has set off a wave of price increases.
? Only a few manufacturers in Tianjin, Shandong, Henan, Jiangsu, and Hubei have slightly increased their quotations, but they are currently implementing pre-orders, and the new orders are not optimistic for the time being.
The mainstream ex-factory quotations of wet ammonium and dry ammonium nationwide are now 380 yuan/ton.
, 420-450 yuan/ton, the transaction is still negotiable.
? So in the long-silent market of ammonium chloride, what is supporting its rebound? ? First of all, low-level operation? Operating rate can refer to Hou Soda companies or downstream companies, but this article refers to the former.
Before the Spring Festival, the overall industry operating rate of Hou's enterprises has been at a low level, about 60%.
This is reflected in the suspension or reduction of production by some manufacturers in Tianjin, Northeast, Jiangsu, Hubei and other places due to subjective or considerable factors, which promoted the supply of ammonium chloride.
The tighter inventory has significantly decreased, which paved the way for price increases.
In addition, after the Spring Festival holiday, there are still ammonium chloride manufacturers in Shaanxi and Hunan who have been conducting maintenance for 5-15 days.
The overall operating rate of Hou's enterprises is close to 70% or slightly higher.
Although slightly higher than before the holiday, the inventory in the previous period is always decreasing.
Even though transportation is restricted during the Spring Festival, the signing of orders is in full swing, which in turn eases the supply of ammonium chloride to a certain extent.
The pressure brought about by ample, prices have taken another step towards a rebound.
? Secondly, demand has started one after another? In 2015, the overall ammonium chloride market took an unusual path.
The peak season is not busy and the off-season is not short, especially when storing fertilizers in winter.
People in the ammonium chloride circle are looking forward to the just-needed ones.
Started, but it has never really arrived.
After the Spring Festival, at the end of February and the beginning of March, when the wheat fertilizer period in Shandong, Jiangsu, Hubei and other places, compound fertilizer companies will gradually resume production, and the original reserves of raw materials will be less, so when the demand starts The raw material ammonium chloride will also be purchased one after another, and the enthusiasm for getting the goods will gradually increase.
For example, a few large factories report that the new order has been signed until mid-March.
Although it cannot reach the full swing state, it is still signing orders.
? Finally, retaliatory backlash? As the saying goes: "After this village, there is no such shop.
" Although it is a bit rustic, it is very reasonable.
It is also more appropriate to describe the current ammonium chloride market.
From the second half of 2015 to the eve of the Spring Festival, the ammonium chloride market slowly entered a state of sleep.
Now, under the combined effect of several factors, in addition to the above description, it also includes exports.
The slight rebound in urea prices and the complete cancellation of the preferential policies for electricity prices on April 20 support the possibility of a rebound in the ammonium chloride market.
Therefore, after looking for positive factors, manufacturers' demand for a retaliatory rebound will become more urgent.
In summary, the ammonium chloride market has indeed taken a turn for the better.
By the end of March, the price of ammonium chloride still has room for a slight increase.
However, the negative factors such as regional and overcapacity are still obvious, and there are more manufacturers.
The implementation of pre-orders, the new order is not very optimistic, and the trend of a complete rebound is not very obvious.
Therefore, it is reminded that manufacturers are more stable than seizing the opportunity.
Do not rush, but should be a small step jogging method to increase the price of ammonium chloride , To achieve success in stability, let the ammonium chloride market from "small spring" to a real spring.