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The ammonium phosphate market has entered a quiet situation.
Since the domestic winter storage stage, the pre-shipment of diammonium has not been hot or cold, dealers have not taken the goods actively, and manufacturers have not been in a hurry to deliver goods; monoammonium has stepped into the cold wave, and domestic sales and exports have been deserted.
As the Spring Festival is approaching, looking at the first few months of the year, the ammonium phosphate market will remain "slowly cooked" and not too hot, and the price will hardly change significantly.
Diammonium? Last year, the export volume of diammonium broke the historical record.
According to customs data, China's export volume of diammonium reached more than 8 million tons in 2015, a year-on-year increase of more than 60%.
Such a large amount of exports has indeed effectively alleviated the contradiction between domestic supply and demand.
If it were in previous years, such a large amount of exports would not only make manufacturers solve the inventory difficulties, but also stimulate the enthusiasm of domestic dealers for winter storage, and even raise domestic prices.
However, the ex-factory price of 64% diammonium of around 2500 yuan so far is obviously not high.
On the whole, there is a greater chance of DAP stabilizing at a low market outlook.
From the perspective of manufacturers, a large number of exports have eased the inventory pressure of manufacturers in this winter and next spring, and manufacturers will no longer lower prices in order to increase domestic sales.
Moreover, after a long period of market break-in in the market last winter, dealers cautiously took goods and kept low prices for winter storage.
Diammonium has gradually entered the reserve price area.
Therefore, from a manufacturer's point of view, it is almost impossible to actively reduce prices.
The price increase is also difficult to support.
Grain prices, especially corn prices, are still not optimistic next year.
As food prices gradually become market-oriented and in line with international standards, it is difficult to expect higher prices for wheat and rice.
First-line farmers and distributors will also "buy down, not buy up" for fertilizer prices.
From the perspective of the market, the downstream market of winter storage is still very negative, and most dealers hold the concept of follow-up and follow-up.
Although manufacturers have little inventory pressure, large distributors will have inventory pressure next spring.
Therefore, before and after the Spring Festival, domestic sales will continue to advance slowly in a lukewarm atmosphere.
Prices are still loosening: the factory price of 64% diammonium in Hubei is about 2500 yuan, the factory price of 64% diammonium in Yunnan-Guizhou is about 2450 yuan, the price of 64% diammonium in Xinjiang is about 2900 yuan, and the price of 64% diammonium in Gansu is 2750.
The price of 64% diammonium in the northeast area is around RMB 2,800.
The price of diammonium in the international market is also falling, and the stalemate in the supply and demand of diammonium in the country will continue.
After the holiday, the first-line acquisition of goods will start, which will show signs of improvement.
Monoammonium? Most of the goods shipped before the holiday are small orders, and the railway transportation during the Spring Festival is blocked, and the actual transactions are priceless.
International sulfur prices are still falling, and raw material support is insufficient.
Downstream compound fertilizer manufacturers slowed down the pace of purchasing raw materials before the holiday, waiting for opportunities for bargaining after the holiday.
The silence of monoammonium is difficult to break in the short term.
In terms of price, the mainstream ex-factory price of 55% powdered monoammonium in Hubei is about 1850 yuan, and the actual transaction price is about 1,800 yuan; 58% powdered monoammonium is about 2050 yuan.
The mainstream ex-factory price of 55% powdered monoammonium in Sichuan is 1800~1850 yuan, and 55% granular monoammonium is 1900~1950 yuan.
The export price of Shandong monoammonium is around 1950 yuan.
Since the domestic winter storage stage, the pre-shipment of diammonium has not been hot or cold, dealers have not taken the goods actively, and manufacturers have not been in a hurry to deliver goods; monoammonium has stepped into the cold wave, and domestic sales and exports have been deserted.
As the Spring Festival is approaching, looking at the first few months of the year, the ammonium phosphate market will remain "slowly cooked" and not too hot, and the price will hardly change significantly.
Diammonium? Last year, the export volume of diammonium broke the historical record.
According to customs data, China's export volume of diammonium reached more than 8 million tons in 2015, a year-on-year increase of more than 60%.
Such a large amount of exports has indeed effectively alleviated the contradiction between domestic supply and demand.
If it were in previous years, such a large amount of exports would not only make manufacturers solve the inventory difficulties, but also stimulate the enthusiasm of domestic dealers for winter storage, and even raise domestic prices.
However, the ex-factory price of 64% diammonium of around 2500 yuan so far is obviously not high.
On the whole, there is a greater chance of DAP stabilizing at a low market outlook.
From the perspective of manufacturers, a large number of exports have eased the inventory pressure of manufacturers in this winter and next spring, and manufacturers will no longer lower prices in order to increase domestic sales.
Moreover, after a long period of market break-in in the market last winter, dealers cautiously took goods and kept low prices for winter storage.
Diammonium has gradually entered the reserve price area.
Therefore, from a manufacturer's point of view, it is almost impossible to actively reduce prices.
The price increase is also difficult to support.
Grain prices, especially corn prices, are still not optimistic next year.
As food prices gradually become market-oriented and in line with international standards, it is difficult to expect higher prices for wheat and rice.
First-line farmers and distributors will also "buy down, not buy up" for fertilizer prices.
From the perspective of the market, the downstream market of winter storage is still very negative, and most dealers hold the concept of follow-up and follow-up.
Although manufacturers have little inventory pressure, large distributors will have inventory pressure next spring.
Therefore, before and after the Spring Festival, domestic sales will continue to advance slowly in a lukewarm atmosphere.
Prices are still loosening: the factory price of 64% diammonium in Hubei is about 2500 yuan, the factory price of 64% diammonium in Yunnan-Guizhou is about 2450 yuan, the price of 64% diammonium in Xinjiang is about 2900 yuan, and the price of 64% diammonium in Gansu is 2750.
The price of 64% diammonium in the northeast area is around RMB 2,800.
The price of diammonium in the international market is also falling, and the stalemate in the supply and demand of diammonium in the country will continue.
After the holiday, the first-line acquisition of goods will start, which will show signs of improvement.
Monoammonium? Most of the goods shipped before the holiday are small orders, and the railway transportation during the Spring Festival is blocked, and the actual transactions are priceless.
International sulfur prices are still falling, and raw material support is insufficient.
Downstream compound fertilizer manufacturers slowed down the pace of purchasing raw materials before the holiday, waiting for opportunities for bargaining after the holiday.
The silence of monoammonium is difficult to break in the short term.
In terms of price, the mainstream ex-factory price of 55% powdered monoammonium in Hubei is about 1850 yuan, and the actual transaction price is about 1,800 yuan; 58% powdered monoammonium is about 2050 yuan.
The mainstream ex-factory price of 55% powdered monoammonium in Sichuan is 1800~1850 yuan, and 55% granular monoammonium is 1900~1950 yuan.
The export price of Shandong monoammonium is around 1950 yuan.
