An analysis of the reasons for the decline of soybean production in China (12.19)

In recent years, China's soybean production has been declining, while the demand continues to grow The soybean market has been maintaining a supply-demand gap of more than 2 million tons It needs to import a corresponding number of soybeans to maintain the balance, and the dependence on import and export trade is growing According to the general market law, there is demand, processing capacity, and production should be developed, but soybean production in China has been stagnant in recent years This paper analyzes the production, consumption, import and export of soybean in China, and finds out the deep reasons for the decline of soybean production 1、 Soybean production is an important oil-bearing crop in China, which is mainly distributed in three regions, i.e spring soybean region in the north, summer soybean region in the Huanghuai River Basin, and multi crop soybean region in the south Soybean is a traditional export product of China and a major agricultural product for foreign exchange, especially in Northeast China Since the 1960s, with the development of soybean production in the United States, Brazil and Argentina, the proportion of China's soybean production in the world's soybean production has become smaller and smaller In the 1980s, China's total output of soybeans accounted for 10% of the world's total output every year, and the export volume of soybeans has dropped to less than 3% of the world's export volume By the 90s, China gradually became a soybean importing country In 1949, China's soybean planting area was 8.3186 million hectares, with a total output of 5.9 million tons In the 1950s, China was the world's largest soybean producer and exporter In 1957, the largest soybean planting area in history, reached 12.748 million hectares, with a total output of 10.05 million tons Since then, for a long time, due to the slow development of agricultural production, the production of high-yield crops of grain and potato has been emphasized, and soybean production has been greatly affected Since the 1980s, the soybean planting area has basically fluctuated up and down 8 million hectares, among which 1983-1985 and 1990-1992 were low tides, and the area was less than 8 million hectares It is worth mentioning that in 1986, the soybean planting area reached 829.47 hectares, the per unit yield reached 1400KG / ha, and the total yield reached 11.61 million tons, breaking the record of the highest total soybean yield in history for the first time In 1993, during the two sessions of the National People's Congress and the CPPCC, a conference on the development of soybean production was held With the strong promotion of the government, the soybean planting area rose to 9.454 million ha, and the per unit yield reached 1619 kg / ha In 1994, the planting area was 9.22 million ha, with a yield of 1735 kg / HA and a total yield of 15.6 million tons, which is the best record of soybean production In 1995 and 1996, due to the shortage of feed corn and the rising price, farmers reduced the soybean planting area driven by market interests In 1997, soybean planting area picked up, with a total output of 14.73 million tons Please refer to the "soybean" information under "variety knowledge" in "century agricultural network" The flood in summer of 1998 seriously affected soybean production It is reported that Heilongjiang Province, the main soybean producing province, whose annual production capacity accounts for nearly 1 / 3 of the total soybean production in China, produced only 4.4 million tons in 1998, 1 million tons less than that in 1997 In general, the soybean production in 1998 decreased by about 8% compared with that in 1997, with a total output of 13.5 million tons and a unit yield of less than 1600 kg / ha, the lowest level since 1993 2、 The consumption of soybean is rich in protein and oil, which has high nutritional value Its basic consumption mode is to eat (to make bean products, etc.) and press oil (to produce soybean oil and soybean meal, which is the main raw material of animal husbandry) With the increase of China's population, the development of domestic economy and the gradual trend of high protein diet, soybean consumption will continue to grow steadily for a long time 1 The consumption of direct food has increased steadily Chinese people have long maintained the dietary tradition of eating soybean and its products From the perspective of direct consumption, high-income and low-income people all like high-quality vegetable protein of soybean Soybean milk, bean powder, bean curd and other pattern bean products are suitable for different levels of consumption demand, and the consumption of bean products has increased steadily However, due to the backward soybean processing technology in the early 1990s, the single variety of follow-up products, and people's insufficient understanding of the nutritional value of soybean, the consumption of soybean in 1990-1992 has been stable at the level of 5 million tons With the record growth of soybean production in 1993 and 1994 and the trend of high protein food structure, the consumption of soybean increased to 5.18 million tons in 1993, 5.73 million tons and 6.37 million tons in 1994 and 1995, and the direct consumption of soybean in 1997 / 1998 was about 6.4 million tons 2 The consumption of soybean oil increased With the improvement of people's living standard and the increase of population, the consumption of edible oil is increasing In 1990, the per capita consumption of Chinese residents was 5.67kg, an increase of 2.5 times over 1978 In 1994, it further increased to 6.10kg, and the annual oil demand was over 8 million tons China's oil production can only provide about 7 million tons of edible oil to the market all the year round, which is facing a huge pressure of increasing demand for edible oil Therefore, soybean has become an important supplement to the oil market At the same time, the rapid development of animal husbandry has a strong demand for feed products, which makes the soybean meal price optimistic In this context, soybean processing is profitable In order to improve the added value of soybean production, some main producing areas have set up oil extraction plants, which has played a role in boosting the increase of soybean oil extraction Therefore, in recent years, soybean oil consumption has increased significantly, which has become a fundamental factor in the increase of soybean demand In 1990, 3.76 million tons of soybeans were used for oil extraction, accounting for 39.6% of the soybean consumption in that year; in 1993, the opening of the oil market led to the shortage of oil supply, and the number of soybeans used for oil extraction soared to 6.47 million tons, accounting for 51.1% of the soybean consumption in that year; in 1994 and 1995, it also increased to 8.59 million tons and 7.47 million tons, accounting for more than 50% of the soybean consumption From the perspective of oil extraction consumption, since the beginning of 1998, the recession of animal husbandry and a large number of soybean meal imports led to the contraction of soybean consumption for oil extraction in the first half of 1998 However, after the second half of 1998, with the increase of domestic efforts to crack down on smuggling, the soybean oil extraction demand has increased by a certain margin In 1998, the soybean consumption for oil extraction was about 10.4 million tons In addition, in addition to other consumption such as planting and export, it is estimated that China's soybean consumption in 1997 / 98 was about 19.4 million tons (excluding the year-end savings) 3 Soybean import and export trade: China's soybean and soybean meal market is more dependent on the international market; the price also fluctuates with the international market In recent years, because the world's major soybean producing countries, the United States, Brazil and Argentina, have had good harvests year after year, the price of soybean and its products in the international market has dropped sharply, and the cheap imported soybean and soybean meal have impacted the domestic market, and the price of domestic soybean has also dropped The enthusiasm of Chinese farmers for soybean planting has been affected The demand has been increasing year by year, while the output has been declining As a result, the dependence of Chinese market on American and South American soybeans has been increasing year by year China is a major soybean producer Before 1994, China's soybean output exceeded the demand, making it a net exporter of soybean However, in 1996, due to the substantial growth of demand and stagnant output, the situation of soybean supply exceeding demand was reversed In that year, the import of soybean and soybean meal exceeded the export, making China a net importer of soybean products Since then, the net import volume has increased year by year, from 2.69 million tons in 1997 to 3.019 million tons in 1998 4、 Due to the development of domestic oil processing industry, the output of soybean meal also increased correspondingly In 1994 / 1995, the output of soybean meal was 6.55 million tons, and in 1996 / 1997, the output of soybean meal was 6.95 million tons, an increase of 400000 tons in two years, an increase of 6.1% However, due to the rapid development of feeding industry and feed processing industry, the domestic soybean meal consumption grew faster In 1994 / 1995, the national soybean meal consumption was 5.33 million tons, increased to 7.5 million tons in 1995 / 1996, and then increased to 10.68 million tons in 1996 / 1997, with a total growth of 5.35 million tons in two years, 13.3 times the same period of output growth As the growth rate of soybean meal consumption far exceeds that of soybean meal output, China has to fill the gap with a large number of imported soybean meal Before 1995, China had been an exporter in the international soybean meal trade, with a net annual export of more than 1 million tons Since 1995 / 1996, China has had a huge deficit in international soybean meal trade, with imports up to 1.55 million tons, exports down to 100000 tons and net imports up to 1.45 million tons In 1996 / 1997, the trade deficit was further expanded, with soybean meal imports plummeting to 3.75 million tons, exports to 20000 tons and net imports to 3.73 million tons (Zheng Kangning, 1998) 5、 The reason for the decline of soybean production in China is that after the harvest of soybean production in 1993 and 1994, the market of agricultural products in China has changed a lot The increase of national purchase price and market price of corn, wheat and rice is significantly higher than that of soybean, and soybean production is in a very disadvantageous position Moreover, due to the impact of a large number of imported soybeans and soybean meal, the price of domestic soybeans has dropped dramatically, which has seriously dampened the enthusiasm of farmers to grow soybeans In 1995, soybean production declined significantly, with 8.127 million hectares of sown area, 11.9% less than that in 1994 and 2.5 million tons less than that in 1994; in 1996, soybean planting area further decreased to 7.471 million hectares, slightly recovered to 8.346 million hectares in 1997, and the yield is still about 1.3 million tons lower than that in 1994 The reduction of soybean area and the decline of soybean production reflect the deep contradictions and problems of soybean production 1 The policy is not conducive to the development of soybean production Although soybean is a food crop, it does not enjoy the relevant food protection policies Among the four major grain varieties in China, rice, wheat and corn have all established a protective price system and set up special purchase funds, playing an important role in stabilizing production But up to now, the soybean protection price has not been set The actual purchase price of soybean is negotiated by the buyer and the seller, and there is no special purchase fund Therefore, the storage and processing enterprises are unable to purchase a large number of soybeans Soybean is regarded as food crop, which limits the production of soybean China's arable land resources are very limited With the increasing population, the pressure of "eating" is increasing, and the contradiction between supply and demand is aggravating Therefore, grain has become the "top priority" of agricultural development In terms of trade policy, China has adopted key protection measures for grain varieties, such as tariff quota management for wheat, rice and corn, but not for soybeans Therefore, soybean naturally takes a secondary position in production, which is determined by the current basic national conditions In this "food and bean dispute", the state naturally takes various means and regulatory measures to give priority to the development of other food crops 2 The comparative income of soybean production is low In recent years, soybean prices have declined instead of rising, and its economic benefits tend to decline According to the data collected by Heilongjiang provincial branch of national grain and oil information center, when the soybean was newly listed in 1998, the purchase price of Heilongjiang, the main soybean producing area, had dropped to 1.83 yuan / kg According to foreign research data, the price ratio of soybean / corn is generally stable at about 2.3:1 At present, corn is protected by the national protective price policy, and the purchase price is stable at 1.00 yuan / kg, while soybean does not implement the protective price system, so the comparative benefit of planting soybean is very low From 1990 to 1997, the comparative advantage of Chinese soybean decreased from 0.48 to - 0.1, which means earning 1 unit