An analysis of the reasons for the decrease of bean commodity market price after the National Day

Introduction: after the national day, the market prices of new soybean, soybean meal and soybean oil in China generally fell At present, spot soybean prices continue to fall The purchase price of new beans in Northeast China is about 2500 yuan / ton, and the transaction is very low At the same time, due to the lack of demand for livestock and poultry breeding industry, soybean meal prices also continued to fall At present, the price of meal in North China and East China has dropped to about 2600 yuan / ton, while that in coastal areas of South China is only about 2750 yuan / ton Influenced by the listing of new soybeans in the northern hemisphere and the arrival of a large number of imported soybean oil in China at the end of September, the price of soybean oil in China dropped significantly after the middle of October At present, the price of soybean oil in the domestic market has been as low as 6000 yuan / ton, and the transaction price in some regions is even lower The main reasons for the decline in the domestic soybean commodity market are as follows: first, the domestic soybean supply is expected to increase It is estimated that China's soybean production will reach 17.5 million tons this year, far higher than the 15.4 million tons last year In addition, since June this year, China's monthly imports of soybeans are more than 1 million tons According to the statistics of the General Administration of customs, China's soybean imports in September reached 1.445 million tons, which can basically meet the demand of new beans before they are listed in the market According to traders, at present, China's oil companies have a high interest in purchasing American soybeans It is estimated that the arrival of imported soybeans will increase in the future In addition, this year's domestic production is relatively large, so the spot pressure is obvious 2 The decrease of domestic soybean meal demand with the large number of livestock and poultry products coming out of the market before the national day, the demand for soybean meal and other feedstuffs by breeding enterprises has greatly decreased, and the demand has entered a seasonal downturn stage The next peak demand season will be one month before the Spring Festival At present, feed enterprises stop to wait and see, unwilling to purchase As a result, soybean meal prices continued to decline, and led other soybean commodity prices down 3 Soybean oil import increased According to the insiders, China's soybean oil import in September was very large Of course, this is also related to the improvement of quality standards of imported edible oil after October in China, and the increase of foreign soybean oil purchasing volume in advance When a large number of imported soybean oil arrives in Hong Kong, the domestic soybean squeezing will be naturally restrained, which will directly lead to the decline of soybean demand According to customs statistics, China imported 1.8 million tons of soybean oil in the first eight months of this year, up 98.2% year on year 4 International market pressure: according to the recent supply and demand report of October issued by the U.S Department of agriculture, soybean production in the United States will reach 84.56 million tons this year, a substantial increase of nearly 10% compared with the 77.18 million tons predicted last month, and a significant increase of 26.6% compared with the 66.78 million tons last year Such a huge output has put great pressure on soybean prices, including the CBOT market in the United States On October 14, the main contract price of CBOT soybeans closed at 515.5 cents / bushel, down about 20 cents from October The decline of international soybean market price also has a negative impact on China's market.