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    Home > Chemicals Industry > New Chemical Materials > Analysis and forecast of domestic spot aluminum market in 2017

    Analysis and forecast of domestic spot aluminum market in 2017

    • Last Update: 2022-12-08
    • Source: Internet
    • Author: User
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    According to the monitoring data of the cable network, the overall domestic spot aluminum price in 2017 showed an upward trend, and the center of gravity was significantly higher than that in 2016, but the fluctuation range was obviously large
    .
    Represented by the Yangtze River spot market, the average price of Yangtze River spot A00 aluminum ingots in early January was about 12,780 yuan / ton, and the end of December was 14,710 yuan / ton, with an increase of about 15.
    1%.

    Analysis of the main factors of the sharp rise in aluminum prices in 2017: In the first half of the year, driven by the supply-side reform of the electrolytic aluminum industry and the expectation of environmental protection and production restrictions in the heating season, aluminum prices showed a trend of easy to rise and fall, and the overall remained in the range of shock sorting
    .
    During this period, the market has repeated policy expectations, in addition, the overall domestic commodity weakness in the second quarter also has a certain drag on aluminum prices, but compared with other non-ferrous metal varieties, aluminum prices have a limited range of correction, and policy expectations are obviously supported
    .

    From June to the end of October, supply-side reform and heating season production restrictions have had a substantial impact on domestic electrolytic aluminum production, along with the illegal production capacity and the shutdown of production capacity involved in the heating season, aluminum prices continued to rise from mid-June to a new high in the year, with a maximum increase of nearly 28%.

    At this stage, the domestic electrolytic aluminum industry presents a "three high" state: high output, high inventory, and high profit
    .
    Before the official implementation of the production limit in the heating season, aluminum prices continued to maintain a high level of strong finishing
    .

    After November, the supply-side reform came to an end, and the shutdown of the heating season was on the way
    .
    However, due to the Weiqiao exemption, the shutdown of production capacity is significantly lower than expected, in addition, weak downstream demand, new production capacity, inventory accumulation, weak macroeconomic expectations and other multiple negative factors suppressed, aluminum prices opened a wave of pullback trend, basically giving up the previous policy favorable growth
    。 With the end of the heating season production restrictions, the market expects the electrolytic aluminum industry and the alumina industry to introduce a production restriction plan, while the downstream aluminum processing industry and aluminum alloy ingot smelting industry began to involve environmental protection supervision, and the number of closed enterprises gradually increased, in addition, at the end of the year, domestic and foreign macroeconomic data showed a significant recovery, alleviating investors' concerns about aluminum market demand, and multiple benefits stimulated aluminum prices to resume their upward trend
    .

    Future market analysis: Overall, 2017 as the first year of supply-side reform of the electrolytic aluminum industry, policy has become the most important factor affecting the fluctuation of aluminum prices, in the strong policy expectations and weak fundamental game, the price operation center gradually rising, the overall trend is strong
    。 In the short term, all the policy factors that can be speculated have all landed in 2017, looking forward to the future market, the market will return to supply and demand in 2018, how much new capacity can be put on the market, as well as the recovery of consumption and the support of the price of the cost center of gravity, the overseas shortage to the domestic price driven, which should be the main logic
    of the aluminum market in 2018.

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