Analysis and forecast of domestic spot rubber market in 2016

Trend review: In 2016, rubber prices began to rise from March, reaching a small peak of 12280 yuan / ton in the first half of the year in May, and continued to make efforts in September, rising rapidly to the highest price of 17433 yuan / ton
in December.

Market analysis: In recent years, the demand for natural rubber in the domestic automobile market has heated up
as a whole.
First of all, the sales of cars have increased rapidly
.
From the perspective of 2016, China's automobile sales continued to grow, mainly reflected in the growth rate of automobile sales in the third quarter of more than
20%.
Since the purchase tax incentive will be adjusted to 7.
5% in 2017, it will still stimulate car sales
.

In addition, coupled with the rapid growth of heavy-duty truck sales, the effect
has far exceeded expectations.
In October 2016, sales of heavy goods vehicles reached 69,622 units, an increase of 31.
5% month-on-month and 54.
0%
year-on-year.
The growth rate in October was also very high
.

Third, domestic infrastructure is heating up rapidly
.
Although the domestic real estate market gradually cooled
down under the regulatory policies in 2017.
However, in 2017, the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Transport and other departments continued to vigorously promote the construction of transportation networks, and investment in infrastructure facilities will replace real estate investment and become an important force
to promote the growth of demand for Tianjiao.

On the whole, there is no doubt
that the overall center of gravity of rubber prices has moved upward.
Due to the impact of the growth of consumer demand, rubber prices will continue to rise, such as car and heavy-duty truck sales continue to grow
.
However, in 2017, rubber prices are cold, and there are many risks
.
In addition, the Spring Festival is the end of January 2017, and the tire factory will reduce production
due to the holiday.
As the Spring Festival approaches, tire operating rates may decline
.
Secondly, under the impact of the US double reverse, rubber at a high price may produce a large correction
.
In general, it is necessary to grasp the general direction of rubber price trends in 2017 and pay attention to preventing the risk of
price correction.