Analysis and forecast of supply and demand situation of soybean market

Introduction: this year's soybean planting area is slightly reduced, the output is close to last year, the social consumption is increased, and the soybean import in the first half of the year is greatly increased The annual import will be close to last year At present, the soybean supply is sufficient, the market recovery is unstable, and the price fluctuation is rising 1 Soybean production tends to decline in the fluctuation According to the survey of major soybean producing provinces and our analysis and judgment, the soybean planting area in 2001 is estimated to be about 9 million hectares, which is about 310000 hectares less than that in 2000, a decrease of 3.3% Soybean production is expected to be about 15 million tons, a decrease of 410000 tons or 2.7% compared with 2000 The sown surface and yield of soybean decreased by 6.5% and 2%, respectively, compared with that in 1993 This year, the soybean planting area in China is expected to be lower than that in the previous year First, there is a serious drought at the turn of spring and summer in the northern region, which also causes a large-scale locust disaster in the drought area, which restrains the development of soybean production in China Second, in the process of spring sowing in the northern region this year, due to the high price of corn and cotton, the price comparison between soybean and corn and cotton has changed, which makes farmers' enthusiasm for planting corn and cotton significantly increased, while the enthusiasm for planting soybeans generally decreased Third, driven by the lure of high quality and low price of imported soybeans and driven by the interests, a large number of importers and exporters and processing enterprises imported soybeans, and the domestic soybean market was impacted, resulting in the overstock of domestic soybeans, the low market price, affecting the increase of farmers' income in the main soybean producing areas, and dampening the enthusiasm of farmers' production Not only the decrease of total sown area of soybean directly affects the yield of soybean, but also the normal emergence of soybean due to the drought between May and June in Northeast China, which leads to the delay of growth period, and may also cause the soybean to be affected by the early frost in autumn 2 Soybean imports have increased substantially Due to the large gap between supply and demand of soybean market in recent years, we have to rely on imports to supplement China has changed from a traditional net soybean exporter to a net soybean importer The net import of soybean increased year by year, from 920000 tons in 1996 to 10205000 tons in 2000, with an average annual increase of 82% The net import of soybean accounted for 45% of China's consumption, 67% of China's production and 20% of the world's total soybean trade, making it the world's first soybean importer Since this year, China's imports of soybeans have been increasing In April and may, the imports were 1.25 million tons and 1.4 million tons respectively In June, another 1.39 million tons came in By the middle of July, China's imports of soybeans reached 6.64 million tons, and it is expected that about 10 million tons of soybeans will be imported throughout the year If the number of rapeseed imports is insufficient, the soybean imports may be more, and a large number of imports will restrain the domestic soybean price increase III market price trend Since November 2000, due to the market demand pull of new year's day and Spring Festival, farmers' reluctance to sell, the limitation of export transportation capacity in Northeast China, and artificial speculation, the average wholesale price of soybean in domestic market has risen steadily At the end of November, the average wholesale price of the third-class soybean in national market was 2277 yuan / ton Until the first ten days of February 2001, the market price of domestic high-quality soybean products continued to rise slightly, However, the above factors gradually weakened after the festival, coupled with the flood of soybean imports, resulting in the decline of soybean prices in the domestic market However, from May, the price of soybean stopped falling and rebounded The average wholesale price of grade 3 soybean in China rose from 2107 yuan / ton to 2118 yuan / ton in July The highest price in Jilin production area at the beginning of May was only 1890 yuan / ton After more than two months of operation, the current price has risen to 2100 yuan / ton, an increase of 100-200 yuan / ton The price in Fuzhou Sales Area at the beginning of May was 2180 yuan / ton, an increase of 2230 yuan/ Tons, up 100-150 yuan / ton, soybean prices in other regions also rose to varying degrees In short, China's soybean market began to sell at a low price, and the price tended to rise steadily The main reasons are as follows: 1 The price of related products rose Since the end of last year, corn has become the "big black horse" in recent years The rise of corn price opens up the space for the price of agricultural products to rise, and promotes the price rise of soybean market 2 The price of bean products rose Due to the seasonal recovery of domestic and foreign demand for soybean meal and soybean oil, the spot soybean meal and soybean oil rebounded strongly in the near future Affected by this, the price of domestic soybean meal rose significantly from south to north As the main processing products of soybean, the rising price of soybean meal and soybean oil played a role in boosting the price of soybean 3 The ability of soybean pressing is constantly improved Last year, the soybean crushing capacity has increased by 10% to 23 million tons This year, the increase of new factories will increase the crushing capacity by more than 13%, to about 26 million tons The increase of crushing demand will drive the soybean price up 4 Due to the approval of the relevant departments of the state for the establishment of a new central soybean reserve, 300000 tons of soybean reserves have been added in the three northeastern provinces, and 150000 tons of soybean reserves have been added in Heilongjiang Province Affected by this policy, the soybean price in Heilongjiang Province has risen, driving the domestic soybean price higher 5 Affected by weather conditions, soybean planting decreased year-on-year, and the growth of new soybean was threatened by drought Consumers' psychological expectation of soybean production was not optimistic, so the demand for soybean in the city increased 6 Consumption has increased year by year With the improvement of China's economic environment, the continuous improvement of people's living standards, and the growth of soybean demand, the price has played a key support 7 The State Council issued the regulations on the safety management of agricultural genetically modified organisms, which requires China's genetically modified agricultural products to implement a mandatory marking system in all aspects of market circulation The regulations raise the "threshold price" of genetically modified soybean imports, which increases the market risk and cost of the United States and South America's soybean imports into China, thus limiting the market risk and cost of genetically modified soybean Import, when the price of imported soybeans keeps rising, is also at the peak of soybean demand in the south, which increases the domestic soybean trade and promotes the price of soybeans to rise 4 Future prospects of soybean market 1 Although the national soybean planting area decreased slightly year on year in 2001, the output is expected to be close to the previous year, higher than the annual average output of 1.7% since 1990, which still belongs to the year of high yield In addition, the national treasury reserves are sufficient, the main soybean producing country has a good harvest, and the international available resources are abundant, which poses little threat to the balance of China's soybean supply and demand 2 In terms of demand, with people's attention to the nutritional value of soybean, the demand is growing According to statistics, the annual consumption of soybean in China keeps a growth rate of 10% In 2000 / 2001, the total consumption of seed consumption, oil extraction, food consumption and industrial demand was about 24-25 million tons In addition, the western development will establish a number of large-scale breeding bases, and the demand for soybean and soybean meal will increase accordingly The growth of demand and the decline of output show the shortage of domestic soybean production 3 The State adopts the policy of levying value-added tax on domestic soybean meal, so that domestic soybean meal and imported soybean meal are on the same line After China's accession to the WTO, it will increase the import quota of edible oil (1.7 million tons in the first year), which will undoubtedly worsen the oil market 4 International market: with China's accession to the WTO approaching, domestic soybean prices are increasingly affected by the international market According to oil world, the world soybean production in 2000 / 2001 will reach 166.35 million tons, an increase of 5.2% over the previous year The global soybean ending inventory will reach 23.39 million tons (including China) The main exporting countries, such as the United States, Argentina and Brazil, are expanding their soybean export momentum, and the soybean supply in the international market will be more sufficient According to the oil world, as palm oil production is expected to be difficult to increase and other major oilseeds are also facing problems such as tight supply, the global squeezing volume will increase significantly It is estimated that the soybean squeezing volume in 2000 / 01 will rise to 145.8 million tons, accounting for about 88% of the soybean production, 5.7% higher than the previous year, which is the largest increase since records In the later stage, the oilseed market will rely more and more on soybeans, and the global soybean crushing volume is expected to increase significantly next year Based on the analysis of various factors in the international and domestic markets, we believe that although China's soybeans begin to go out of the trough in the short term, the growth rate will not be too large, and the future market of soybeans is still dominated by stable operation However, with the transformation of supply and demand, the medium and long-term soybean market is likely to strengthen, and there is still some room for soybean prices to rise Due to the large gap between China's soybean production and demand and strong dependence on the international market, in addition to the influence of various domestic aspects, the international market situation will become the key factor affecting the domestic soybean price If the imported soybean is out of stock, the market will be explosive upward This year, the imported soybeans will show a pattern of "increasing in the South and decreasing in the north, and greater in the South than in the north" That is to say, due to the rapid expansion of oil processing enterprises in the south in recent years, the demand for soybeans has increased, while the North is back to the production areas, and the quality of soybeans is generally good, so the oil enterprises in the north will continue to become the main consumer groups of domestic soybeans (author:) share to feed Weibo share to: