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    Home > Chemicals Industry > New Chemical Materials > Analysis of aluminum price trend in the domestic spot market in November

    Analysis of aluminum price trend in the domestic spot market in November

    • Last Update: 2022-12-04
    • Source: Internet
    • Author: User
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    According to the monitoring data of the cable network, unlike the aluminum price in October, the aluminum price fell into a state of sharp fluctuations in November, and the overall market was still weak during the month, represented by the Yangtze River nonferrous spot market, the aluminum price at the beginning of the month was 14880 yuan / ton, and the aluminum price at the end of the month was 14050 yuan / ton, down 830 yuan, the overall decline was 5.
    6%.

    Aluminum prices

    Macro: At the beginning of the month, the dust of the US election settled, the market expected that Trump will pay attention to infrastructure construction after taking office, the news is conducive to the bulk industrial commodity market, the outer plate of aluminum once rushed to $1794.
    5, but obviously the upward resistance, the aluminum shock falls, short-term shock continues
    。 Domestically, Shanghai aluminum due to the spot market supply continued to be tight, as well as market capital speculation, the beginning of the month continued the October rise market, the highest climbed to 14850 yuan / ton, but weak demand and market arrivals gradually increased, aluminum prices rose weakly, Shanghai aluminum shock fall, and then rose again, but obviously the rise is not as strong as the previous period, the end of the month again rushed back down
    .

    Market: Some time ago, the cold wave hit, affecting the goods, the market is worried about the subsequent arrival volume, coupled with the period of aluminum all the way up in the month, the holder with the market to raise the price is strong, the market bullish atmosphere breeds, traders are willing to receive goods, boosting the market quotation all the way up and there are transactions
    .
    However, this month, aluminum prices have soared and fallen, the market has panic, and holders are actively selling goods, but the market transaction is gradually decreasing, and merchants choose to hedge and wait and see
    .
    Since the beginning of the second half of the month, aluminum prices began to decline, as of now, although the decline has slowed down, but the market is still unstable, overall, the aluminum market transaction in November is not as good as in
    October.

    In terms of inventory: as of November 30, LME aluminum inventory reported 2149150 tons, a daily decrease of 5,900 tons; In the same period, the previous period of aluminum inventory reported 75,362 tons, a weekly decrease of 12,373 tons, far lower than the average inventory value of 200,000 tons during the year, and hit a low point since September 28
    , 2007.
    The current level of explicit inventory in the aluminum market is extremely low, and it is expected to increase before the end of the year, but the increase is not large
    .
    From the perspective of supply and demand, after the improvement of consumption in the first half of the year, there was a considerable supply gap
    .
    In the third quarter, when domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity resumed production and new production capacity was put into operation, supply and demand were basically balanced
    .
    The fourth quarter is estimated to be slightly excessive, production is growing, while consumption in the real estate sector is declining, and consumption in the automotive sector is maintaining growth
    .

    After-market analysis: Xinjiang goods have been slowly flowing out, but aluminum ingots in the main sales area are still rapidly destocked, showing a pattern that the emerging market is still tight, and the high premium water is still maintained
    .
    In view of the expectation that the tight supply situation will be eased, the unilateral market of aluminum has turned to a high range market
    .
    In the later stage, with the increase of supply in the market, the concentration of cargo holders to suppress aluminum prices, the overall downstream began to bearish, approaching the end of the year, the entire aluminum market demand is weak, traders generally reflect that the business is not good, and at the same time face the pressure of payment at the end of the year is relatively large, the entire aluminum market may usher in a wave of adjustment, it is expected that aluminum prices will continue to be weak and volatile market
    .

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