Analysis of aluminum price trend in Yangtze River spot market (11.20-11.24)

Macro: Domestically, China's property market cooled, the latest data show that China's October house price index growth narrowed for 11 consecutive months, industrial metal demand outlook is cloudy, in addition, early Zhou Weiqiao Group said that the heating season will no longer shut down electrolytic aluminum production capacity, and Henan does not follow the requirements of peak production penalties exposed, short forces gradually increased, aluminum prices fell all the way; In terms of external trading, the trend of aluminum prices in the external market this week maintained a decline and then a rise, the decline in U.
S.
crude oil inventories boosted oil prices to a high level, commodity market sentiment was boosted, base metals were generally higher, and aluminum prices were
boosted.
The Indian government has proposed that Vedanta expand its alumina capacity to 6 million tons, while the company's current annual alumina capacity is about 1 million tons, and the pressure to expand alumina capacity or increase aluminum inventory will limit the rise
in aluminum prices.

Market: the overall performance of the spot market this week is still in a low state, at the beginning of the week with the sharp fall in aluminum prices, pessimism spread further inhibited downstream consumer demand, downstream users generally turned to wait and see, holders shipment enthusiasm slightly weakened, with the aluminum price rebound, the overall lack of consumption is more obvious, near the weekend, downstream procurement demand replenishment slightly improved, in the current supply of sufficient supply, it is expected that next week spot trading is still difficult to be optimistic
.
Near the end of the year, the environmental storm officially announced the "midwinter"
for the South China market.
Under environmental protection conditions, the consumption of aluminum ingots has been suppressed
.
In addition, it is now close to the end of the year, some downstream small and medium-sized enterprises in the environmental protection storm has been greatly affected, vitality damaged, in the case of the end of the year, the resumption rate is still an unknown number, coupled with the previous peak season received orders are not very ideal, in the short term, weak demand is still the main issue, South China aluminum ingot consumption inflection point when to come, I am afraid that still need to wait patiently for December
.

In terms of inventory: the trend of London aluminum inventory this week maintained a straight decline, the latest inventory reported 1124975 metric tons, and a total of 32,825 metric tons of inventory was reduced this week, a decrease of about 2.
8%; The total aluminum stock on the Shanghai Futures Exchange this week was 694572 tons, an increase of 3,312 tons, or about 0.
48%,
from last week.
As of November 23, the national aluminum ingot inventory was 1.
746 million tons, down 01,000 tons
from the same period last week.
In the case of weak demand, the inflection point of electrolytic aluminum inventory seems to have arrived, but further attention is still needed to be paid to the changes in inventory data before a final conclusion
can be made.
At present, the bearish atmosphere of Shanghai aluminum is still relatively strong
.

In the future market: after entering the heating season, the market production reduction effect is far less than the market expectation, Weiqiao Group heating season peak shift production plan and July illegal production capacity coincidence, no longer shut down new production capacity, coupled with aluminum ingot social inventory still maintain a rebound, and then hit a new high, and the downward trend of alumina has been basically determined, aluminum prices fell sharply during the week, the current market bearish power gradually increased, aluminum prices lack of support upward momentum is insufficient, but after the previous big decline market, the future market aluminum prices or decline slowed down, into the adjustment, it is expected that next week aluminum prices or stop falling and stabilize
。