Analysis of aluminum price trend in Yangtze River spot market (1.16-1.20)

Macro: Abroad, the British "Brexit" plan hit the blockbuster, market concerns rekindled to suppress the rebound of aluminum prices; However, the improvement in the US housing market data has boosted investor optimism, and Lun Aluminum has benefited from the rise
.
This week, the trend of London aluminum showed a large "V" trend
.
The weekly average price is around $1805, and the market mainly focuses on the $1900 support level
.
Domestically, Shanghai aluminum failed to follow the rise of London aluminum this week, because the Spring Festival is approaching, the market risk aversion is heating up, Shanghai aluminum fell into a volatile market, the main contract is overall in the range of fluctuations, due to the smelting price, and the market circulation of the source of goods, Shanghai aluminum shock is strong
.
At present, the market is waiting for the release of China's full-year economic data, and the recent metal trend may be set before the Spring Festival, and the short-term aluminum market will maintain a volatile trend
.

Market: This week, traders have entered the rhythm of vacation, downstream enterprises Spring Festival stocking is nearing the end, the willingness to receive goods has fallen, and the market transaction is average
.
The price remained above 13,000 yuan / ton during the week, and the premium was reported at C190-C50 yuan / ton, due to the sharp rise in prices, and the holders were reluctant to sell, coupled with the arrival of the Spring Festival, the car transport was tight, and the discount began to gradually narrow
.
This week, the overall transaction in East China was light, and downstream enterprises took less goods, mainly between traders, and the mid-week ticket trading was more active
.
On the last trading day of the week, the aluminum price of the current aluminum market rose slightly, making the originally lighter market trading more cold, traders began a full holiday at the end of this week, and it is difficult to hand next week, and the market is not expected to improve
before the Spring Festival.

In terms of inventory: as of January 20, LME aluminum stocks reported 2298625 tons, an increase of 54,450 tons or 2.
42% from last week, marking a five-week increase and a new high since August 26 last year; In the same period, the previous period of aluminum stocks reported 118551 tons, a weekly increase of 316 tons, the highest since September 14 last year, the seventh consecutive week increase, but far below the average inventory value of 2016 of 200,000 tons
.
In summary, the recovery of aluminum supply is still continuing, and the inventory data as a whole shows a rebound, especially the domestic social inventory has increased significantly; However, the coming of the holiday has led to too concentrated supply and the narrowing of spot discounts, making short-term aluminum prices relatively firm
.

After-market analysis: Shanghai aluminum prices this week are generally in a stepwise trend; The average weekly settlement price of the 1702 contract in Shanghai Aluminum was 13293 yuan, up 3.
3% from last week's settlement price; The weekly line fell by 0.
34%, and the main operating range price this week was 13250-13450 yuan / ton
.
In the aluminum market, the market sentiment remained cautious on the eve of Trump's inauguration, and the current aluminum price basically maintained a narrow range during the week, and before the holiday, manufacturers gradually stopped production, and the market supply and demand were weak
.
In the short term, due to the upcoming Spring Festival, the market risk aversion has heated up, and the pre-holiday volatility is not large, and there are uncertainties in the market after the holiday.