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    Home > Chemicals Industry > New Chemical Materials > Analysis of aluminum price trend in Yangtze River spot market (5.1-5.5)

    Analysis of aluminum price trend in Yangtze River spot market (5.1-5.5)

    • Last Update: 2022-12-05
    • Source: Internet
    • Author: User
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    This week, domestic aluminum prices first fell and then rose, and prices fell sharply at the beginning of the week, and then gradually stabilized and recovered some of the
    declines.
    Represented by the Yangtze River nonferrous spot market, according to the monitoring data of the cable network, the price of A00 aluminum ingots at the beginning of the week (May 2) was 13940 yuan / ton, and the price on Friday was 13860 yuan / ton, down 80 yuan, or 0.
    57%.

    Aluminum prices

    Macro: The market was closed on Monday due to the May Day holiday, and the first day after the holiday was due to market rumors to restart electrolytic aluminum production capacity, as well as the black series fell heavily, bearish aluminum prices, and Shanghai aluminum fell
    with it.
    Since then, the market has rumored that Shandong has violated production capacity rectification, coupled with China's recent measures to combat environmental pollution, the market expects aluminum output to decline, and the aluminum market has stabilized and rebounded, competing for around 14,000 yuan
    .
    The latest data released shows that China's official manufacturing PMI in April was lower than expected, the US economic growth slowed down in the first quarter, domestic and foreign economic data performed poorly, the market atmosphere was empty, and aluminum prices lacked good news support, and the short-term trend is expected to be slightly weak, but the support below still exists, and the downside is also limited
    .

    Market: At the beginning of this week, aluminum prices fell sharply, holders from premium to large discount shipments, demand is mainly bulk goods, trading light, starting on Wednesday, as aluminum prices stabilize at a low level, spot traders diverge on the future market, traders are actively trading, downstream also increase replenishment, futures spot price spread narrowed, Thursday spot prices fell slightly, due to the near weekend, downstream post-holiday low replenishment demand increased, holders bullish aluminum market, selling psychology gradually rising, market sources tightened, but trading remained active, The huge shock in aluminum prices at the end of the day made the market turn to the sidelines
    again.
    On Friday, aluminum prices regained their rally, morning trading showed an active trend, holders shipped positively, downstream stocking demand once again appeared, prices are also dominated by premium shipments, market transactions are ideal, prices before noon slightly lower, holders small discount shipments
    .

    In terms of inventory: Lun aluminum inventory continued to decline, the latest inventory reported 1599725 metric tons, a total of 45,650 metric tons of inventory was reduced this week, a decrease of about 2.
    8%; The total aluminum stock on the Shanghai Futures Exchange this week was 403905 tons, an increase of 12,327 tons, or about 3.
    1%,
    from last week.
    The continuous rise in domestic inventories in recent months highlights the contradiction of surplus, and the consumption off-season is coming, and bullish speculation is under pressure
    .
    In May, June electrolytic aluminum production will not appear significantly declined, demand is estimated to have no unexpected outbreak, temporarily do not see the rapid decline of inventory, the future market Shanghai aluminum or will fall back to around 13500 yuan / ton, the price is mainly maintained in the range of 13500-14500 yuan / ton operation
    .

    In summary, this week, the commodity market suffered a sell-off, and compared to other base metals, aluminum showed strong resistance in a bearish atmosphere
    .
    Recently, due to China's measures to combat environmental pollution, aluminum output may decline, and market rumors of illegal production capacity rectification in Shandong will give strong support to the aluminum market and make aluminum prices strong
    .
    At present, the overall macro situation is weak, and liquidity risks are also imminent, but the aluminum market has insufficient room for decline, and it is expected that short-term aluminum price shocks will be strong
    .

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