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According to cable network monitoring data, this week's domestic aluminum prices first fell and then rose, represented by the Yangtze River nonferrous spot market, the price of A00 aluminum ingots at the beginning of the week was 12440 yuan / ton, and the price on Friday was 12540 yuan / ton, up 100 yuan, the overall increase was 0.
8%.
Macro: The market lacks heavy news guidance this week, and the trend of aluminum prices is slightly tangled
.
The recent market focus is still on whether the Fed will raise interest rates again in June, Fed senior officials have continuously expressed hawkish statements, expectations of interest rate hikes have heated up in the following months, and the US dollar continues to be strong, suppressing external metal prices
.
The Fed's interest rate hike may cause greater or small volatility in the market, but it is not enough to make aluminum prices break through the current shock range, and at present, the possibility of raising interest rates is small
.
Short-term macro factors influenced the market, and coal and steel prices, the focus of speculation in the early stage, continued to plummet, dragging down the performance
of base metal prices.
Market: this week's spot market transaction is general, the market supply at the beginning of the week is reduced, some traders actively move goods, but as the price falls, the market wait-and-see sentiment is sharp, the willingness of holders to ship is better, but maintain high shipments, spot aluminum premium once expanded, holders ship positively, traders enthusiasm for goods has declined, downstream did not appear strong desire to purchase, near the weekend are indicating sufficient inventory, maintain a cautious attitude
.
Inventories: As of May 27, LME aluminum stocks reported 2,534,000 tons, a weekly decrease of 26,550 tons or 1.
04%, close to the low point set on January 16, 2009 (2485275 tons); In the same period, the previous aluminum inventory reported 246627 tons, a weekly decrease of 24,406 tons or 9%, the ninth decrease in ten weeks, close to the low since April 30 last year
.
The reduction in inventories has made spot aluminum prices still firm against the background of falling futures, with high premiums and hot trading
.
In the short term, aluminum plants are mainly supplied around aluminum water, aluminum ingot circulation is still tight, downstream orders have not slowed down significantly, processing enterprises are still overwhelmed, and aluminum prices remain strong
.
Aftermarket analysis: the overall supply of aluminum market is tight and continuous, the supply of aluminum ingots in upstream aluminum plants is still insufficient or even cut off, downstream orders are enthusiastic, and enterprises are running at full capacity or even unable to meet demand
.
As the price gradually stabilizes around 12500, the industry is basically fully profitable, the upstream aluminum plant gradually begins to resume production, the new production capacity is gradually increased, and there are more follow-up production plans, but the specific plan is mostly in the third and fourth quarters
.
On the futures plate, the range is constantly narrowing, and the subsequent direction is chosen
.
Overall, fundamentals are still moving
too much to a slow turn.