Analysis of aluminum price trend in Yangtze River spot market (6.13-6.17)

Macro: The People's Bank of China recently released China's macroeconomic forecast for 2016, although it is difficult to reproduce RRR and interest rate cuts in China, but the overall domestic economic data is weak, maintaining easing will remain the policy goal of the central bank, and domestic monetary easing is difficult to turn for
the time being.
In the United States, the Fed's interest rate hike in June has been completely disappointed, the expectation of a July rate hike has also been sharply reduced, and the number of
interest rate hikes during the year has also been reduced at the Fed meeting.
As the US economic data is mixed, and the manufacturing industry has not picked up significantly, the expectation of future interest rate hikes has weakened
.
The risk of Brexit surged, and gold rose
sharply due to safe-haven factors.
Once Brexit is successful, it will deal a huge blow to the euro or have a negative impact
on commodity prices.

Market: the average trading range of the main spot aluminum this week is about 12150-12230 yuan / ton, and the premium is mainly at C30-B110 yuan / ton, which is narrower than last week
.
This week's spot market transaction picked up, at the beginning of the week holders actively shipped, traders moved willingness to improve, to Friday, traders holding goods enthusiasm has declined, but the overall transaction situation remains good, while the downstream did not show a strong desire to purchase, the upcoming week all said that the inventory is sufficient, the stocking situation is general, maintain a cautious attitude
.

Stocks: as of June 17, LME aluminum stocks reported 2,446,200 tons, down 6,200 tons from the 16th, close to the low of January 14, 2009 (2445525 tons); At the same time, as of June 17, the last period of aluminum stocks reported 204735 tons, down 4,817 tons from last week, the decline has expanded, still the twelfth decrease in the past 13 weeks, close to the low point since March 27 last year
.
Aluminum inventories continued to maintain a downward trend, as of June 16, LME inventories fell by more than 15% compared with the end of last year, short-term low inventories and spot premiums will still give strong support to aluminum prices, and the downward space of aluminum prices may be limited
.

Aftermarket analysis: Shanghai aluminum is still at a low level this week, but since the delivery of the month, spot prices are firmly supported, and Shanghai aluminum has limited decline
.
Overall, supply uncertainty caused by the direction of aluminum prices is unknown, if the supply and demand situation continues to be weak, aluminum prices will continue to be under pressure, the medium-term weak pattern remains unchanged, but short-term low inventory and spot premium to give aluminum price support, Shanghai aluminum is still expected to maintain a strong finishing, although there is a possibility of downside, but the downside space is limited, the decline will not be too fast
.