Analysis of aluminum price trend in Yangtze River spot market (8.8-8.12)

Macro: According to the latest data from the National Bureau of Statistics, China's CPI in July was 1.
8% year-on-year, falling for three consecutive months, hitting a new low in six months, China's PPI in July narrowed for the seventh consecutive month, while China's export decline slowed in July, and the decline in imports expanded, rekindling the market's concerns about China's domestic demand, but credit and real estate data performed brightly, and the prosperity of real estate-related industries rebounded significantly, continuing to benefit downstream consumption
。 Abroad, the United States JOLTS job vacancies in June 5.
624 million, higher than the expected 5.
588 million, in addition, the United States added 255,000 non-farm jobs in July, better than the expected 180,000, the data shows that the US labor market continues to recover, the dollar strengthens, non-ferrous metals are slightly under pressure, aluminum prices maintain volatility, and the changes are limited
.

Market: This week's inventory rose slightly, the willingness of holders to ship began on Tuesday, the willingness to receive goods downstream was not strong, the market transaction was weak, coupled with the close to the change of month, this week's spot premium narrowed from a high of 160 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 10 yuan / ton
.
This week's price remained high, the overall trading volume was general, the supply at the beginning of the week remained tight, the holders sold at a high price, affected by the continuous high premium, traders were less willing to replenish, the downstream operating rate was low, the purchase desire was insufficient, and the main circulation brands were mainly Tongxia, Weiqiao, Lan Aluminum, Gan Aluminum and other brands
.
Then the premium began to fall, social inventory on Thursday showed an inflection point, holders actively shipped, but the price is still firm, traders wait and see, downstream expectations of aluminum prices fall, just need to purchase, near the weekend all indicate sufficient inventory, less stock, maintain a cautious attitude
.

Inventories: as of August 12, LME aluminum stocks reported 2232425 tons, down 8,000 tons from the previous day, continuing the downward trend, which was close to the low set on December 23, 2008 (2,232,600 tons); In the same period, the previous period of aluminum stocks reported 113691 tons, a weekly increase of 6,171 tons, but still far below the average inventory value of 271,000 tons during the year, close to the low set on September 30, 2011 (77,378 tons).

Domestic spot inventories have rebounded for the first time after a 22-week streak, and it is not certain that the inventory inflection point has arrived
.

Aftermarket analysis: This week, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum showed a sideways trend as a whole, and the center of gravity shifted
upward.
There was a sharp pull-up in midweek, driven by the strengthening of industrial products, but it quickly retreated
.
The supply-side tightening logic that previously bullish aluminum prices has gradually disappeared, and with the continuous increase in operating rates and the arrival of the peak season, prices have entered a stable range
.
It is expected that in the short term, the upward and downward space of aluminum prices is limited, and there is still support at the bottom, mainly in the shock pattern
.