Analysis of copper price trend in Yangtze River spot market (10.16-10.20)

Domestically, China's September PPI surged 6.
9% year-on-year, extending for the second consecutive month and posting its biggest gain in six months, as optimistic expectations of China's economic outlook once again attracted capital into the market, providing support to copper prices and standing at a new high
in more than three years.
In addition, the capital level has also improved, the governor of the People's Bank of China Zhou Xiaochuan recently said that a number of indicators show that China's recent economic growth is stable and improving, deleveraging has also achieved initial results, will continue to implement active fiscal policy and prudent monetary policy, the easing of funds for copper prices to provide sufficient operating funds
.
Abroad, European economic data performed well, the Eurozone August seasonally adjusted trade balance (euros) was 216, higher than expected, higher than the previous value of 186, indicating that the euro area economic trend also continued to be good, the general environment is good for consumption, copper prices to rise
.

Market: Since last week, spot copper prices have continued to rise, rising by about 4,000 yuan in just two weeks, and the short-term surge has made downstream merchants at a loss, many merchants were afraid of heights last week, but this week failed to usher in a downward trend, and had to enter the market under low inventories
.
At present, although downstream merchants no longer continue to look forward to the decline, there are not many people who are firmly bullish on copper prices in the future, so there are not a large number of stockers in the week, and the demand performance is average
.
On the supply side, the profit window for imported copper is still beginning, but the source of imported copper is still not yet coming, coupled with the smelter's control of shipments, the two factors work together, making the domestic market supply very scarce
.
Under the influence of the strong copper price trend and the shortage of spot supply, the willingness of holders to hold up the price and ship during the week was strong, and the good copper premium remained above
200 yuan for a long time.

Inventories: London copper stocks increased slightly this week, with a cumulative increase of 3,825 metric tons to 287625 metric tons, a cumulative increase of 1.
35%.

Shanghai copper stocks increased by 8,425 tons to 112667 tons this week, an increase of about 8.
08%.

Global inventories have rebounded slightly recently, but the increase in inventories relative to this round of copper prices is very limited, which also shows that the supply elasticity of refined copper is getting lower and lower worldwide
.
From this week's inventory data, the Shanghai Stock Exchange bonded warehouse copper inventory increased by 8425 tons to 112667 tons on Friday, a slight increase, from the above inventory data, the overall supply this week showed a slight increase, but the future market supply or a slight tension appeared, the current downstream inventory is obvious, is expected to support the copper price rebound is expected
.

Future market analysis: On the whole, the recent news is positive, copper prices have also re-entered the upward track, but the increase during the period is too large, and there is no decent correction, which will undoubtedly face the demand
for technical pullback.
As far as the fundamentals of copper are concerned, due to the slowdown of foreign copper mine strikes, the global supply of copper concentrate is relatively sufficient, China's high copper production will limit the amount of refined copper imports in the future, and the effect of China's strict real estate control policies will continue to appear in the future, which will affect the demand of various industries in the copper market, which is not conducive to higher copper prices, and it is expected that the future market will still face pressure
.