Analysis of copper price trend in Yangtze River spot market (3.6-3.10)

Macro: Domestically, the CPI unexpectedly fell to 0.
8% year-on-year in February, the lowest growth rate since January 2015 and far below expectations of 1.
7%.

The February PPI was 7.
8% year-on-year, the highest since 2008, and 7.
7%
expected.
The market believes that the CPI fell sharply in February, and the inflation pressure eased in the short term, but inflation expectations have not disappeared, PPI has reached a new high, and the transmission to CPI is still continuing, and the news is empty
.
Abroad, the US ADP employment in February, known as the small non-farm payroll, far exceeded expectations, in addition, a number of senior Fed officials, including Federal Reserve Chairman Yellen, intensively released hawkish signals, the US dollar index performed strongly during the week, and copper prices fell under pressure
.

Market: The market traded lightly this week, with fewer smelter shipments and more positive trader shipments
.
At the beginning of the week, due to the close delivery, the price difference of the next month was more than 200 yuan / ton, and after the market pullback, speculators entered the market to receive goods, and the liter discount all the way from the discount 180 yuan / ton - discount 60 yuan / ton to the discount 90 yuan / ton - premium 40 yuan / ton, downstream with the sharp fall in copper prices, active buying increased, flat water copper was favored, the market transaction was active, the quotation was raised to discount 50 yuan / ton - 60 yuan / ton, after the week due to the narrowing of the basis of the next month, speculators fell enthusiastically, and the proportion of speculative buying decreased, The premium is pushed back to show the pressure
.
On the last trading day of the week, the market trading is acceptable, the market imports copper mostly, smelters basically do not ship, traders purchase a small amount of warehouse receipts, purchase mainly below, especially large copper rod factories, etc.
, their orders are better than the previous period, on-demand procurement is a small amount of storage for weekend processing
.

Inventories: Copper prices fell sharply this week amid concerns
about a sharp increase in overseas copper inventories.
London copper inventories soared this week, hitting a yearly high on Thursday, again surging by 38,775 tonnes, and the cumulative increase in stocks during the week was 129075 metric tons to 325,500 metric tons, a cumulative increase of 65.
7%, and London copper stocks have increased by 126575 tons or 63%
so far this month.
Domestically, the inventory of the previous period reported 326732 tons after the holiday, an increase of 12,859 tons from the previous week, and the registered warehouse receipts were 166556 tons
.
Overall, inventory pressure is still an important factor restricting market conditions, and the future market still needs to wait and see how
market demand changes.

Aftermarket analysis: On the whole, the market sentiment before the opening of the Fed meeting is cautious recently, and the overall trend of commodities may be dominated by a volatile pattern; In terms of the market, copper inventory pressure is huge, domestic and foreign inventories remain high, especially Shanghai copper inventory in the past week increased by 3.
94% weekly, hitting a ten-and-a-half-month high, copper market is still under pressure; In terms of news, the decline in copper imports and rising copper inventories in China, the largest consumer of metals, have put pressure on copper prices, and the impact of the Chilean strike may fade, and it is expected that copper prices will still be difficult to perform well in the short term, and will still be dominated by weak markets
.