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This week (May 9-May 13) domestic copper prices are generally weak, taking the Yangtze River spot market as an example, according to cable network monitoring data, the average copper price at the beginning of the week was 36050 yuan / ton, and the average copper price on Friday was 35390 yuan / ton, down 660 yuan / ton, down about 1.
83%.
Macro: China's economic momentum in April continued to carry on in March, but similar to the first manufacturing PMI indicator, the momentum of the short-cycle rebound of the economy has weakened, and the domestic macroeconomy and policy have once again entered the "wait-and-see period"
.
Abroad, near the Fed's June interest rate meeting, a number of Fed officials made hawkish comments last week, indicators, US retail sales, producer price index and Michie and University consumer confidence index in April performed strongly, indicating that the US economic momentum in the second quarter was much better than in the first quarter, increasing the possibility of
interest rate hikes.
Although Goldman Sachs expects the Fed's next rate hike to be possible in September, economic data, dollar performance and market speculation will repeatedly increase market volatility, which may weigh copper prices
.
Market: this week's market supply is acceptable, traders are actively shipping, smelters basically do not ship, as the delivery date approaches, the month's premium soared, but downstream manufacturers showed calm, mostly remain on the sidelines
.
Due to the rise in copper prices in the early stage, procurement is quite cautious, inventories have remained low, corporate funds are still sufficient, and this week's fall in copper prices just attracted downstream companies to replenish stocks
.
However, at present, this kind of good consumption may not be maintained for a long time, on the one hand, the off-season is coming, so that on the other hand, imported copper can fill the supply gap at any time, copper prices may fall further, then the transaction may be hit
.
In terms of stocks: as of May 13, LME copper stocks were reported at 156675 tonnes, down 2,350 tonnes or 1.
48% weekly, the first reduction in three weeks; In the same period, the previous Shanghai copper inventory reported 286,210 tons, a sharp weekly decrease of 26,958 tons, returning to the level since February 26 this year, after the inventory fell for eight consecutive weeks, with a cumulative decrease of 108567 tons or 37.
93%.
At present, the total inventory of the three major exchanges and bonded zones is still at a four-year low, but as consumption gradually enters the off-season, market supply and demand pressure will continue
.
Future market analysis: At present, the vast majority of macro and fundamental factors are not conducive to copper price rise, but considering that copper prices have fallen too much since this month, there must be technical pullback demand in the later period, so the short-term copper price will still have a recovery trend, in the medium and long term, the spot market gradually enters the consumption off-season, in the case of weak macro, copper prices are difficult to maintain a high level, downward momentum will be further enhanced
.
The current pressure level is 37000, short-term support is 35000, if it breaks through, the 33000 support level can be observed
.
