Analysis of copper price trend in Yangtze River spot market (8.21-8.25)

Macro aspect: Abroad, since his election as president, Trump has been talking nonchalantly, and investors are full of doubts about his ability to govern; At the same time, the latest release of US economic data is slightly weak, the market lowered its expectations for the US economic outlook, the dollar continues to hover around 93 points, the weakness is fully displayed, if the dollar continues to fall next week, non-ferrous metals will continue to find support
.
Domestically, the State Council issued a guiding speech to further expand and upgrade information consumption, continue to release the potential of domestic demand, and boost market expectations
.
In addition, China's refined copper imports surged 13% to 283468 tons in July, encouraged by the overall tight supply fundamentals and optimistic expectations of Chinese demand, copper prices broke the slightly "tangled" trend in the past six months, and continued to soar this week to reach a more than three-year high
.

Market: The spot copper market is slightly more average this week, and the domestic market has not been replenished by sufficient import sources when the import profit window is closed
.
Under the influence of tight market supply and bullish sentiment of holders, the margin of spot copper discount has been shrinking
during the week.
From the perspective of demand, the continuous rise in copper prices has made downstream demand manufacturers a little unhappy
.
Because the current downstream manufacturers are worried about the sharp decline in copper prices, they are very cautious when taking goods, and they hope to replenish the stock when the copper price pulls back, and then the copper price does not show the slightest sign of correction during the week, so the downstream has to enter the market to buy a small number of high-priced sources, and the overall market transaction is very limited
.

In terms of inventories: London copper inventories continued to decline this week, with a cumulative weekly reduction of 30,525 metric tons to 240825 metric tons, a weekly low of nearly five and a half months, with a cumulative decline of 11.
25%.

Shanghai copper inventories fell by 16,646 tonnes to 187444 tonnes this week, down about 8.
16%, a four-week low
.
Recently, LME copper inventories have maintained a sharp decline for many days, and the stock of the previous period has continued to decrease, coupled with the market's expectations for future copper mine shortages are stronger, the bullish tone is still in place, and the rise in copper prices is expected to continue
.
In the later stage, it is necessary to pay attention to the actual receiving capacity of the downstream consumer industry, and if the receiving situation gradually improves, the bullish market continues, otherwise it will face a pullback
.

Future market analysis: At present, after the rapid rise of domestic copper prices, enterprises in the industry are cautious, and the futures market looks more dependent on the strong influx of funds, and some of the long funds that entered in the early stage began to profit and reduce positions, although technically still in a strong pattern, but beware of high adjustment risks
.
On the whole, the domestic economy is stable and improving, and the foreign economy has recovered
.
With the blessing of supply-side reform policies, unprecedented environmental protection supervision, and the reduction of inventory, funds have poured in.

The technical shape is good, and the uptrend is unchanged
.
Copper prices are expected to remain strong next week
.