Analysis of copper price trend in Yangtze River spot market(11.6-11.10)

Macro: Abroad, the latest European and American manufacturing PMI in October remained strong, the current economic data performance in Europe and the United States remained at a high level, even if the monetary policy margin tightened, but did not cause a significant drag on the fundamentals, European and American demand has not weakened
significantly.
Domestically, affected by the appreciation of the renminbi and the November holiday, China's imports and exports fell sharply in October, with exports falling by 2.
9% to 6.
9% year-on-year, and imports falling by 3.
6% to 15.
9%
year-on-year.
Sluggish import and export data in China dampened investor enthusiasm, bulls' profit-taking mentality climbed, copper prices came under pressure this week to record three consecutive negatives, and spot copper prices fell to a nearly one-month low on Friday
.
However, it is not advisable to be overly pessimistic about future market demand, and the recovery of the global economy will remain resilient
this round.

Market: Copper prices rose at the beginning of the week and continued to rise weakly, then fell into a retreat
.
Overall volatility has slowed down, and the difference between the high price and low price of spot copper this week has narrowed to about 1200 yuan, and the premium has fallen
sharply.
This week's two trading days on Monday and Tuesday continued the trend of last week's rebound, but when spot copper rose to 54,500, spot also fell
sharply as futures were unable to rise.
Holders were unable to support prices, and they lowered their premium shipments, and good copper once fell to the level of
10 premiums.
The market is in sufficient supply, traders are afraid of further decline, choose to ship more, while downstream demand maintains a normal buying rhythm, and transactions have been tepid
.
On Thursday and Friday, spot copper prices stabilized, and holders turned to the idea of raising prices, unwilling to reduce the discount range
.
It is expected that the market will improve next week
.

Inventories: London copper stocks fell this week, with a cumulative weekly reduction of 10,250 metric tons to 260,150 metric tons, a cumulative decline of 3.
79%, a low in nearly two months
.
Shanghai copper inventories rose by 18,198 tonnes to 145471 tonnes this week, an increase of about 16.
9%, a seven-week high
.
Weak spot fundamentals, bonded areas and copper inventories in the previous period increased, indicating that the short-term oversupply pattern appeared, which provided investors with reasons to suppress prices, but the short-term correction of copper prices does not change the medium and long-term rising pattern, from a medium- and long-term perspective, the global economic improvement will raise the expectation of copper demand growth, continue to provide upward momentum
for copper prices.

After-market analysis: With the end of the "Golden Nine Silver Ten" peak season, the off-season effect gradually exerts force, the copper inventory in the previous period has increased by nearly 35% since November, and it is now reported at a seven-week high, weak downstream demand, coupled with the overall weakness of China's macroeconomic data recently released, market pessimism has spread further; However, the blockage of copper mine supply in Indonesia has somewhat alleviated the negative impact
of China's economic downturn.
On the whole, the trend of copper prices this week is dominated by technology, and when the rise is weak, it turns into a downward trend
.
However, the fundamentals have not gone bad, and a slight rebound
is expected next week.